Ankura's Monthly Economic Tracker for July 2025 delivers a comprehensive U.S. economic overview, highlighting critical shifts. Real gross domestic product (GDP) experienced a 0.5% decrease in Q1 2025, while June saw a rise in non-farm payroll employment and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Inflation remains a factor, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 2.7% year-over-year.
Consumer debt painted a mixed picture: Credit card and auto loan balances declined, yet student loan debt surged to $1.63 trillion, accompanied by rising delinquencies. The housing market struggles with high mortgage rates impacting new home sales. Furthermore, persistent tariffs continue to influence supply chains and economic stability. Overall delinquency rates reached 4.3%, signaling areas to watch.
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