What We're Watching Today: October 28, 2024

SJ
Steptoe LLP

Contributor

In more than 100 years of practice, Steptoe has earned an international reputation for vigorous representation of clients before governmental agencies, successful advocacy in litigation and arbitration, and creative and practical advice in structuring business transactions. Steptoe has more than 500 lawyers and professional staff across the US, Europe and Asia.
Representatives of 56 countries, most with roots in the former British Empire, attended the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa, amid increasing calls for Britain to pay reparations or make other amends for slavery.
Worldwide Strategy

What We're Watching Today is 1,324 words and an 8-minute read.

Global

Reparations not on the agenda of Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, officially

Representatives of 56 countries, most with roots in the former British Empire, attended the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa, amid increasing calls for Britain to pay reparations or make other amends for slavery.

Our Take: The issue of reparations, despite not being on the agenda, continues to generate controversy in the forum, between those believing that colonial powers should make amends, financially or in other ways, for the legacy of slavery, and opponents who say countries should not be held responsible for historical wrongs. While the new British government has stated there will be no change in policy, the UK is facing increasing pressure internally and from other countries to consider the issue. Demands for reparations are also being made against the US, France, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

Read More: BBC, The Guardian, CAIRICOM Reparations Commission

Europe

High stakes in the Georgian parliamentary elections

Georgians voted this past weekend in parliamentary elections in the most consequential poll since its independence, in essence a referendum on the country's choice between Europe and Russia.

Our Take: The Central Election Commission said the ruling party Georgian Dream won 54.8% of Saturday's vote, with mail-in ballots yet to be counted. The opposition is disputing the results. The ruling party Georgia Dream, in power since 2012, has taken a hard turn towards authoritarian policies and seeks "pragmatic policies" to guarantee peace with Russia. The opposition wants to reset policies with the EU and put the country back on track for EU membership by 2030. Russia currently occupies 20% of the country's territory, the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Moscow wishes to keep Georgia within the Russian sphere of influence. The opposition fears that election fraud will lead to full-scale repression with Moscow's backing.

Read More: Euronews, German Marshall Fund

Middle East

Russia supplied satellite data to Yemen's Houthis

The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia provided targeting data to the Yemeni Houthi rebels for use in their campaign against Western ships in the Red Sea earlier this year. The data was reportedly passed through Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Our Take: The news represents a dramatic, if not unexpected, increase in Russia's military cooperation with Iran's regional proxy network. Where Russia once enjoyed a relatively strong relationship with Israel, and tried to remain neutral in the Yemen war and among Gulf partners, Russia has now stepped up its strategic alignment with Iran, and is aiding its efforts to stoke chaos in the region. The news could complicate Russia's relationships with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in addition to making the Houthis a much more formidable – and unpredictable – regional player.

Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Americas

Uruguay heads to the polls

Uruguayans went to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president and lawmakers as well as vote on referenda on nighttime police raids on private homes and reverse several recent retirement-related reforms, including a move that raised the retirement age from 60 to 65.

Our Take: Uruguay's political system is the strongest and most stable in the region, making Uruguayan elections a less dramatic affair than in other countries. Nonetheless, issues are at stake this weekend: voters are choosing between Delgado, a protégée of the outgoing conservative president, or Orsi, returning to a left-leaning coalition that ruled from 2005-2020. If elected, the left-leaning parties would likely pause a trade deal with China and return to climate-focused initiatives. International observers are watching the retirement referendum results especially closely, as financial analysts warn that the proposed changes – including tying pensions to the minimum wage and banning private pension fund managers – could cripple the country's finances.

Read More: New York Times [paywall], The Guardian, Wilson Center

Asia-Pacific

India and China begin implementation of new border deal

India and China on Friday bilaterally announced they have begun implementing a pact to end the four-year military standoff on their disputed Himalayan border.

Our Take: Analysts view the latest deal as a step toward stabilizing Sino-Indian relations, strained by 2020 Himalayan border clashes. Troops have begun withdrawing from contentious areas following an agreement reached at the BRICS summit in Kazan. For India, improving ties with China is economically significant, especially amid tensions with the West over accusations concerning Sikh separatists' assassinations. Meanwhile, China aims to present itself as a responsible global actor, especially amid increasing US economic pressure on Beijing. Despite lingering trust issues, both nations see value in mending relations.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], Lowy Institute

Africa

IMF raises 2025 Africa growth forecast, though unrest remains a risk factor

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 to its highest point in four years, while cautioning that factors, including social unrest, will generate uncertainty.

Our Take: The Washington-based lender revised its growth forecast to 4.2% for 2025, up from 4% in April, but cut this year's outlook to 3.6%. Resource-dependent nations are expected to grow at half the rate of others. The report warns of rising regional instability and notes that inequality could fuel further unrest. In a separate note published alongside the report, the IMF stated that sub-Saharan Africa must create up to 15 million new jobs annually to tackle its severe unemployment crisis, which heightens the risk of social instability.

Read More: Bloomberg [paywall], International Monetary Fund

Trade & Compliance

China offers Taliban tariff-free trade

Beijing's envoy to Afghanistan on Thursday said that China plans to offer the Taliban tariff-free access to its immense construction, energy, and consumer sectors, offering the diplomatically isolated yet resource-rich country a chance to build up its markets.

Our Take: China has not formally recognized the Taliban regime but sees Afghanistan's mineral wealth as an opportunity to boost its supply chain security. In return, selling lithium, copper, and iron to China could provide Kabul with needed revenue, as its overseas reserves remain frozen. Despite risks of Afghanistan becoming a haven for militants targeting Xinjiang and investments in Pakistan, Beijing's recent effort to strengthen ties with the Taliban represents a pragmatically optimistic view of achieving a win-win situation for both countries.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], Khaama Press, Wilson Center

Disruptive Technology

Recent survey indicates tech workers have some of the highest quitting intent

A recent EY report shows technology hardware and software workers have one of the high quitting intents, despite being most likely to recommend their employers and noting improved company culture year over year.

Our Take: Roselyn Feinsod, principal in EY's People Consulting practice, said that the disconnect between the positive depiction of the sector and the higher probability of quitting can partially derive from younger workers' openness to job changes. In addition, the shortage of high-demand talent in some technology categories has led workers with such skills to consider a range of different opportunities. As demand for certain tech roles, including IT, grows, industry analysts advise business leaders to understand the employment market and their organizational health to effectively plan ahead.

Read More: Cybersecurity Dive, EY

Climate Change

New tools tracking deforestation reveal causal factors

A new study from CTrees and REDD+AI reports on forest degradation that causes loss of trees, found that in the last six years, human activities, such as logging, fire and road construction, have degraded an area of tropical forests equivalent to the size of California.

Our Take: The study uses a new data platform enabled by AI and advanced satellite data, and is able to detect change in every 5-meter area of tropical forests worldwide. The data is more detailed and updated more frequently than monitoring by NASA and Landsat imagery. CTree's data adds to the growing data that governments can use to make science-based policy decisions to reduce deforestation and forest degradation to address biodiversity and climate change. The report was released on the margins of COP16, the biodiversity conference being held in Colombia.

Read More: Axios, CTrees

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