Amidst U.S.-China trade, technology, and other tensions, many global executives are rethinking their China business strategy. Against this backdrop, Ankura Senior Managing Director Travis Tanner sat down with the American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham China) to discuss U.S.-China relations and strategies for long-term business growth.
In this interview, Travis discusses the greatest headwinds and opportunities facing U.S. businesses in China today, along with advice for U.S. executives shaping their China strategy.
Read the full interview featured in the AmCham China Quarterly, Issue 2, 2025 below.
Still in the Game: Travis Tanner on Why China Remains a Strategic Bet
As shifting geopolitical headwinds reshape the US-China business landscape in real time, companies face growing pressure to manage risk while staying competitive. In the latest installment of our ongoing series with AmCham China's Board of Governors, Travis Tanner—Senior Managing Director at Ankura, President of GreenPoint Group (an Ankura company), and AmCham China Vice Chair—shares his perspective on what it takes to stay engaged, why China remains strategically important, and how to navigate a market that's no longer about easy wins, but smart bets.
Travis Tanner is a Senior Managing Director at Ankura and President of GreenPoint Group (an Ankura company). Drawing on more than 25 years of experience, Travis advises corporate and non-profit clients to develop and expand business opportunities in the China market and navigate policy and regulatory changes. Travis also serves as the Vice Chair of the AmCham China Board of Governors. Previously, Travis served as president of the US-China Strong Foundation, an offshoot of the Obama administration's 100,000 Strong Initiative. He previously served as senior project director at The National Bureau of Asian Research. He is the author, contributing author, or coeditor of numerous publications on the strategic, economic, and political dimensions of the US-China relationship. Travis received a master's degree in international relations from the Johns Hopkins University – SAIS and the Hopkins-Nanjing Center. He is senior advisor to NBR, Tsinghua University Schwarzman College industry mentor, member of the National Committee on US-China Relations and serves as Co-Chair of the AmCham China Policy Committee.
You've lived in China for 13 years and worked on China-related issues for 25+ years. How did you become interested in working on China-related issues, and how do you pursue this interest outside of your professional work?
Travis Tanner: I first became interested in China while studying Mandarin as a study abroad student at Jinan University in Guangzhou in 1998. Later, I was privileged to receive the Doak A. Barnett Fellowship to study at Johns Hopkins SAIS in Nanjing and Washington, DC – an experience that completely changed the course of my family's life and forged a lifelong connection to China. My four children have grown up in Beijing and cherish the many lessons they learned here. My wife has taught at international schools in Guangzhou, Nanjing, and Beijing, cultivating deep relationships with hundreds of students and parents.
Outside of my work at GreenPoint, I am passionate about mentoring students. Since 2017, I have had the honor of serving as a Schwarzman Scholars industry mentor for two students each year. It's always inspiring to see their enthusiasm and curiosity about China. Finally, I enjoy cycling in the Beijing mountains, especially slipping out for rides on Monday mornings when my US-based colleagues are still enjoying the weekend.
This is your first year as Vice Chair of the AmCham China Board of Governors. What specific goals do you hope to champion during your term?
Travis Tanner: My aim is to support US businesses as they navigate the China market and anticipate fluctuations in US-China relations to the greatest extent possible. I hope to champion AmCham's vital role in helping companies manage the increasingly complex geopolitical, economic, and political landscape.
With 25 years of experience working on policy and engaging with government officials in both Washington and Beijing, I intend to leverage my diverse relationships in the two capitals to advocate on behalf of US companies at the highest levels.
My specific goals include supporting AmCham Chair Alvin Liu, the Board of Governors, and President Michael Hart as they adeptly guide AmCham China through challenging conditions while maximizing value for our member companies.
Additionally, I plan to visit as many of our Chapters across China as possible. In March, I had the privilege of visiting the Tianjin Chapter to discuss US-China relations with our incredible members, and I look forward to returning to Tianjin and visiting other chapters across the country.
Finally, I hope to continue contributing to the production of the annual White Paper and encourage AmCham members to join advocacy opportunities, such as the DC Doorknock, the Government Appreciation Dinner, White Paper delivery meetings, regional visits, and other engagement opportunities. These efforts are always more impactful when more voices representing diverse sectors, experiences, and perspectives are involved.
Given your work advising multinationals and NGOs, what advice do you currently give to clients navigating the complex and uncertain environment in China?
Travis Tanner: Recently I have counseled clients to:
- Develop a comprehensive understanding of their operating context, including identifying key decision-makers involved in issues that most impact their company. Engaging these stakeholders appropriately is crucial. To navigate the China market successfully, it's essential to deeply understand the underlying priorities, protocols, and people who drive key decisions.
- Strengthen internal coordination within the company to address potential disconnects between the headquarters and the local China team regarding geopolitics and risk management. Establishing strong communication channels around critical business issues and coordinating the company's China strategy based on this shared understanding is crucial. Conducting real-world simulations is one practical way to prepare for potential contingencies.
- Strategically engage their stakeholder ecosystem by demonstrating a genuine commitment to the China market (including with communities, customers, partners and regulators) as well as aligning efforts with the US national interest – while ensuring that efforts in one area do not undermine the other.
- Stay agile and proactive in the short-term, while maintaining a clear focus on long-term goals. Though geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have become the new normal, businesses must look beyond immediate challenges to create conditions for sustainable success. Standing still is not an option for companies aiming to thrive in the China market.
What would you say is the top challenge for US businesses in the China market?
Travis Tanner: Currently, the foremost concern for most US companies operating in China is the uncertainty caused by ongoing geopolitical tensions. Recent actions by Washington and Beijing—such as tariffs, export controls, entity list restrictions, and investigations—have made business operations and long-term planning increasingly challenging. However, the more significant obstacle lies in the broader, long-term uncertainty over whether the two nations can stabilize their relationship and maintain that stability. Given the vastly different systems and structural issues driving competition and decision-making—especially around trade, investment, technology, diplomacy, and global influence—forecasting future developments remains difficult.
While companies typically plan investments over 5 to 10-year horizons, the evolving dynamics of US-China relations introduce formidable ambiguity. This uncertainty complicates strategic decision-making and long-term planning. Additional headwinds facing US firms include a slowing domestic Chinese economy, concerns over regulatory transparency, intense domestic competition, and challenges recruiting and retaining talent.
What would you say is the greatest opportunity for US businesses in the China market?
Travis Tanner: Being in the China market offers US companies a front-row seat to China's innovation ecosystem, which enhances their ability to compete globally. China's innovation ecosystem has become highly sophisticated—not only in sectors like automotive, which is well-covered in the western press—but across a wide range of industries. To stay competitive, US companies need to be active in China, learning from and competing with innovative Chinese companies across various sectors.
Another significant opportunity is China's market size. Despite economic softening, China remains a crucial economy – accounting for roughly 18-20% of the world's GDP. There is simply no substitute for this extensive market in terms of growth potential and strategic importance.
One media narrative in the West is that China is becoming "uninvestable" – do you think this is true?
Travis Tanner: While there are certainly challenges to investing in China, and the degree of challenges varies by sector, the idea that China has become "uninvestable" is, in my view, misguided. For most large companies, the key question is not whether to invest in China but rather how to do so effectively – how to remain competitive with Chinese and other global companies.
The China market will remain important in the long-run for global companies. As the second largest economy in the world, China's growth rate has outpaced most developed and many developing economies. Over the past decade and a half, China has contributed approximately 35% of global GDP and remains a major driver of worldwide growth. Some projections suggest China will account for over 20% of new global economic activity through 2029, cementing its position as a leading contributor to global growth.
Take Ankura, for example – GreenPoint Group's parent company. While many professional service firms are pausing or reconsidering their investments in China, Ankura is actively expanding its presence in China. This includes increasing headcount and further integrating our Greater China operations with global initiatives. At GreenPoint, we feel fortunate that Ankura recognizes the importance of the China market and is investing accordingly. We believe this approach positions our firm to serve our clients with excellence for years to come.
For American executives re-evaluating their China strategy, what would you say is essential for them to understand in 2025?
Travis Tanner: It's all about perspective. Executives must constantly keep in mind that Washington and Beijing interpret the same events and actions through vastly different lenses. For instance, many in Washington view US technology restrictions against China as vital measures to protect national security and ensure that US technology is used in ways that align with US values. In China, on the other hand, these restrictions are viewed as attempts to suppress China's technological, geopolitical, and economic development.
The dynamic of dual and often conflicting perspectives has long shaped US-China relations. In 2025, understanding this dynamic is more crucial than ever, as economics, trade, and business are increasingly subordinated to politics and geopolitics.
With tariffs and retaliatory measures back in the headlines in 2025, what realistic areas of cooperation do you think still exist between the US and China from a business standpoint?
Travis Tanner: At the moment, nearly every issue seems to be viewed through the lens of "national security" by both sides. One area for future cooperation I would like to highlight is student exchange – an issue that I care deeply about and worked on for several years at the US-China Strong Foundation. However, recent trends of declining American students studying in China, along with new measures that could make securing student visas more difficult, are making even this area one around which it is difficult to foster collaboration.
Regardless of one's views on China's intentions toward the United States, it is critical for US national interest to ensure that the next generation of leaders is equipped to engage effectively with China. Unfortunately, the number of American students studying in China is far from sufficient to achieve this goal. After peaking at around 20,000 students in 2018 the figure plummeted to only around 800 Americans in 2024. This downward trend has profound implications, as future policymakers, defense strategists, business executives, journalists, NGO leaders, and others will be less prepared to manage the US-China relationship. It's not too late to reverse this trajectory. I sincerely hope both sides recognize that revitalizing student exchange is in their interests.
What should policymakers in Washington and Beijing better understand about the real on-the-ground challenges facing US companies in China today?
Travis Tanner: I hope Washington policymakers understand that to compete globally, American companies must have a presence in China and factor this into their strategic decision-making. Without a foothold in China, they risk being outcompeted by European, Japanese, and increasingly by Chinese global competitors.
At the same time, US policymakers should recognize that China is not merely an important manufacturing and supply chain hub for American companies – it is also a vital market. The Chinese market is massive and often represents a significant proportion of US companies' global profits.
Similarly, I hope policymakers in Beijing realize that many US firms are experiencing "promise fatigue," a sense of disillusionment about whether China will truly follow through on its commitments to create a level playing field for foreign businesses. While Beijing has long expressed intentions to promote fair competition, many US companies feel that the implementation has not matched the rhetoric.
What motivates you to continue building bridges at a time when the US-China relationship is so fraught? What gives you optimism moving forward?
Travis Tanner: What motivates me is the hope that pragmatism will ultimately prevail, as it has during past periods of ups and downs in the US-China relationship. While the bilateral relationship has experienced lows before, pragmatic approaches have often enabled both sides to find areas of common interest and cooperate effectively, resulting in significant benefits for both countries and the world. For example, the United States and China have collaborated on public health research, disease control, agriculture, space exploration, climate change, clean energy, disaster management, and many other issues – work that has generated valuable benefits for both nations and for the world.
At the end of the day, Americans and Chinese are all human beings with shared i/nterests and common needs. The United States and China have far more in common than the front pages of newspapers convey. To successfully manage the major challenges facing humanity such as climate change, global health, resource scarcity, poverty, technological risks, and environmental degradation, and to ensure a prosperous future for as many global citizens as possible, it will require strong leadership and cooperation from Washington and Beijing.
Young people inspire me as well. As a student at the Hopkins-Nanjing Center (2001-2002), I was motivated by conversations with American and Chinese classmates who shared a common vision that one day, the US Secretary of State and Chinese Foreign Minister would both be HNC graduates, negotiating on behalf of their respective countries with deep mutual understanding. I hope that current HNC students are actively working toward building that future.
Finally, the very thing that makes the US-China relationship so challenging — our deep interdependence — ironically gives me hope. The Chinese saying "唇齿相依" (lips and teeth depend on each other) perfectly captures this reality. Our economies are so intertwined that cooperation is essential. While it will require persistence, I believe it is in both nations' interests to seek areas of mutual benefit and stability in the bilateral relationship.
This article was first published with AmCham China Quarterly and can be found here.
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