The Department of State (DOS) recently released the first visa bulletin of fiscal year (FY) 2025 showing some moderate priority date progression across most employment-based immigrant visa categories. After a year of rather slow priority date movement in FY 2024, the forward progression in priority dates for the October 2024 visa bulletin is a welcome sign. Still, this mild rate of progression in the first visa bulletin of the fiscal year signals that green card applicants may be in for another year of slowed priority date movement and long wait times.
The start of the fiscal year on October 1st brings forth a fresh set of immigrant visas for allocation, which often coincides with meaningful forward movement in priority dates in the visa bulletin.1 While priority dates did progress slightly across most employment-based categories in the October 2024 bulletin, the sluggish movement suggests that the estimated demand and current inventory for immigrant visas this fiscal year will still significantly outpace visa availability, leading to another year of stalled forward movement. Unfortunately, absent a change to the visa limits or a significant reduction in demand for employment-based green cards, both of which are unlikely, this trend for employment-based immigrant visa processing may continue for the foreseeable future.2
Congress enacted the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) in 1990, which sets an annual limit on the availability of employment-based immigrant visas each fiscal year.3 The DOS, in coordination with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), administers the annual and per-country limits by releasing the visa bulletin each month. By comparing immigrant visa availability against the estimated level of demand, DOS establishes "cut-off dates" in the visa bulletin for applicants to file their green card applications or have their applications approved within a given month.4 For applicants with priority dates later than the established cut-off dates in the bulletin, some more waiting for priority dates to advance is in store. The USCIS has long warned that the statutory limits for employment-based immigrant visas, set by Congress over 30 years ago, are insufficient to meet the current demand.5 For applicants chargeable to certain countries where demand is particularly high, primarily China and India, the wait times for an immigrant visa can be particularly lengthy, with some categories facing decades-long backlogs.
The United States workforce of today's fast-paced and highly interconnected world relies heavily on immigrant talent to foster innovation, maintain competitiveness, and continue to position the United States as a leader in scientific discoveries and technological advancements. It is becoming increasingly clear that immigration policies have not kept pace with the technological advances of the last three decades and reform is needed to provide relief to United States permanent residence seekers. In a recent report, the National Academy of Sciences cautions that the U.S. is falling behind other countries in attracting and retaining foreign-born talent, partly due to the challenges associated with obtaining green cards.6 The report makes various recommendations to lawmakers, including raising immigrant visa limits and eliminating per-country limitations for highly skilled workers, which would provide stability and certainty to many employment-based green card applicants.7 Even smaller changes by Congress, such as recapturing unused visas from previous years or by counting the foreign worker and their family as a single unit in allocating immigrant visas, could have a profound impact on lessening the employment-based green card backlogs. However, with the upcoming Presidential elections in November, immigration reform is unlikely to occur this year, and the potential for future changes in the coming years will primarily depend on the outcome of the election.8
Faced with the uncertainty of the future political landscape and the potential for continued congressional inaction, some stakeholders advocate for examining other options for providing relief to foreign workers, such as through continued policy reforms at the agency level. Due to the increased wait times for green cards in the last few years, the USCIS has enacted several policies to provide some relief to applicants, although these policies disproportionately benefit foreign workers who have green card applications already pending, leaving those not yet able to apply with limited options. To rectify this imbalance, some ask for DOS to advance priority dates in the visa bulletin "Dates for Filing" chart to allow eligible applicants to file their green card applications immediately. Such action could substantially benefit countless foreign workers stuck in the backlogs and enable more foreign workers to access benefits, including certain job mobility, work and travel authorization, and protection for children who might otherwise "age out" of eligibility to adjust status with their parents.9 As such action could be subject to legal challenges, however, agencies may be reluctant to take such measures.
For many green card applicants and prospective applicants, the release of the October 2024 visa bulletin brought moderate disappointment, as the stalled movement in priority dates appears to indicate that yet another year of waiting is ahead in FY 2025. Without meaningful change to the harsh inflexibilities of current United States Immigration policies, these trends are likely to continue. The worsening backlogs and increasing difficulties in obtaining permanent residency could potentially threaten the country's ability to maintain its workforce of foreign-born, highly
Footnotes
1. Carolina Regales. "Visa Retrogression: Stalled Green Card Dreams or An Opportunity to Reset?" Mondaq. June 13, 2024: https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/immigration/1478624/visa-retrogression-stalled-green-card-dreams-or-an-opportunity-to-reset.
2. US Citizenship and Immigration Services. "Employment-Based Adjustment of Status FAQs." https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/fiscal-year-2023-employment-based-adjustment-of-status-faqs.
3. US Congress. (1964) United States Code: Immigration and Nationality, 8 USC §§ -1401 Suppl. 2 1964.
4. The Visa Bulletin may be viewed each month at the following link: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html.
5. US Citizenship and Immigration Services. "Employment-Based Adjustment of Status FAQs." https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/fiscal-year-2023-employment-based-adjustment-of-status-faqs.
6. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. International Talent Programs in the Changing Global Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27787.
7. Stuart Anderson. "National Academy Calls for More Immigrant Visas, No Per-Country Limit." Forbes. September 3, 2024: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2024/09/03/national-academy-calls-for-more-immigrant-visas-no-per-country-limit/.
8. Kristopher W. Peters. "U.S. Immigration Practice 2024: Noteworthy Developments and Possible Changes Ahead." Mondaq. September 10, 2024: https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/immigration/1515268/us-immigration-practice-2024-noteworthy-developments-and-possible-changes-ahead.
9. Stuart Anderson. "Changing Visa Bulletin Could Save Immigrants And H-1B Visa Holders." Forbes. September 6, 2023: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/09/06/changing-visa-bulletin-could-save-immigrants-and-h-1b-visa-holders/.
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