With ballots arriving in the mailboxes of California voters, the below provides a snapshot analysis of the open and competitive seats in the California Legislature for the 2024 General election.
Prior to the March primary election, the voter registration report from the Secretary of State's office tracking registration activity between October 2023 and January 2024 noted an uptick in Republican registration, with the GOP gaining 46,000 registered voters statewide. Democrats lost 30,000 voters statewide and saw a decrease in registration advantage in just about every Assembly district in the state. No Party Preference voters saw a drop of about 70,000 voters. As of September, a record total of 22,310,352 eligible Californians are registered to vote, which is 1,070,116 more than at the same point in the presidential election cycle four years ago. Democrats saw less than a 1% decrease in voter registration from 2020 to 2024, while Republicans saw a 0.65% increase in GOP registration between 2020 and 2024.
In the 12 years since California's election law was changed to allow the top two vote-getters, regardless of political party, to proceed to the general election, the types of candidates in Assembly and Senate races have significantly changed. In addition, due to the term limits instituted around the same time, many of the legislators who came in under the new term limits are now termrestricted. Upon completion of this election cycle, 68.5% of the Assembly and Senate seats will have changed hands in just the past four years.
Below is a list and analysis of each open and competitive Assembly and Senate races in the current election cycle. Names and numbers in red indicate Republican affiliation, those in blue indicate Democratic affiliation.
List of Competitive Seats And Current Imcumbents:
ASSEMBLY
- AD 1: Megan Dahle (Bieber/Rural Northern CA)
- AD 2: Jim Wood (Healdsburg)
- AD 6: Kevin McCarty (Sacramento)
- AD 7: Josh Hoover (Folsom)
- AD 8: Jim Patterson (Mariposa)
- AD 13: Carlos Villapudua (Stockton)
- AD 15: Timothy Grayson (Concord)
- AD 19: Philip Ting (San Francisco)
- AD 26: Evan Low (Silicon Valley)
- AD 32: Vince Fong (Bakersfield)
- AD 33: Devon Mathis (Tulare)
- AD 41: Chris Holden (Los Angeles/Pasadena)
- AD 43: Luz Rivas (San Fernando Valley)
- AD 44: Laura Friedman (Los Angeles/Glendale)
- AD 50: Eloise Gómez Reyes (San Bernardino)
- AD 52: Wendy Carrillo (Los Angeles/East LA)
- AD 53: Freddie Rodriguez (Chino Hills/Pomona)
- AD 54: Miguel Santiago (Downtown Los Angeles)
- AD 57: Reggie Jones-Sawyer (South Los Angeles)
- AD 58: Sabrina Cervantes (Riverside)
- AD 62: Anthony Rendon (Southgate/Paramount-Unincorporated LA County)
- AD 75: Marie Waldron (Santee/Poway)
- AD 76: Brian Maienschein (Rancho Santa Fe)
- AD 79: Akilah Weber (San Diego/La Mesa)
SENATE
- SD 1: Brian Dahle (Bieber/Rural Northern CA)
- SD 3: Bill Dodd (Napa)
- SD 5: Susan Talmantes Eggman (Stockton/San Joaquin County)
- SD 7: Nancy Skinner (Berkeley/Alameda County)
- SD 9: Steve Glazer (Orinda/Lafayette)
- SD 23: Scott Wilk (Santa Clarita)
- SD 25: Anthony Portantino (La Canada Flintridge)
- SD 29: New Seat (San Bernardino)
- SD 31: Richard Roth (Riverside)
- SD 35: Steven Bradford (Gardena/Carson)
- SD 37: Dave Min (Irvine/Costa Mesa)
- SD 39: Toni Atkins (San Diego)
Assembly Election Snapshots
AD 1 (M. Dahle)
REGISTRATION: R+14.36
DISTRICT: Includes whole counties of Alpine, Siskiyou, Sierra, Shasta, Plumas, Lassen, Nevada and Modoc. Portions of Placer, Amador and El Dorado counties are also included in this mountainous rural district.
OVERVIEW: This is a safe Republican district. Incumbent Republican Megan Dahle is running for the SD1 State Senate seat being vacated by her husband, Brian Dahle, who is termed out. Previously, Dahle ran unsuccessfully against Gov. Gavin Newsom in the gubernatorial race.
Republicans Tenessa Audette and Heather Hadwick, who is a safety and communication specialist with the Modoc County Office of Education, were the top vote-getters in March. Both Brian and Megan Dahle have endorsed Hadwick. The September campaign finance reports showed Hadwick with a cash-on-hand edge over Audette of $76,531 to $21,719.
Hadwick's campaign reported contributions from the California Association Realtors, Anheuser Busch, Sempra Energy and the California Professional Firefighters, while Audette's support included the Paskenta Band of Nomlaki Indians, Asm. Bill Essayli, The American Council for Evangelicals PAC, and America Upheld PAC.
AD 2 (Wood)
REGISTRATION: D+28.19%
DISTRICT: Consists of the whole counties of Trinity, Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, and portions of Sonoma. This district includes the whole cities of Sebastopol, Crescent City, Ukiah, Blue Lake, Fortuna, Eureka, Cloverdale, Fort Bragg, Ferndale, Arcata, Trinidad, Willits, Rio Dell, Point Arena, Healdsburg, the town of Windsor, and portions of the City of Santa Rosa.
OVERVIEW: Incumbent Democrat Jim Wood announced in November 2023 that he would not seek re-election for this safe Democratic seat. Six Democrats competed in March, including: California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks, who resides in Humboldt County; Healdsburg Mayor Ariel Kelley; Mendocino County Supervisor Ted Williams; Santa Rosa City Councilmember Chris Rogers; Yurok Tribe Vice Chairman Frankie Myers; and former KMUD radio program director Cynthia Click. One Republican, Del Norte USD School Board member Mike Greer, also competed in the race. Despite significant fundraising advantages, Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks was unable to advance. Santa Rosa City Councilman Chris Rogers was the top Democratic vote-getter advancing into November to face off against Republican Mike Greer. With a significant voter registration advantage in a district President Biden won by over 40% in 2020 and over $150,000 more in cash on hand, it is very likely Rogers will be the next Assemblymember from this district.
AD 6 (McCarty)
REGISTRATION: D+29.07
DISTRICT: Sacramento County seat including a majority of the City of Sacramento, which comprises 61% of the district.
OVERVIEW: Incumbent Democrat Kevin McCarty is not seeking re-election in 2024 announcing instead in May that he would run in the open race for Sacramento mayor. A crowded field of ten candidates, primarily Democrats, was on the March ballot. Democrat and deputy Attorney General Maggy Krell emerged as the top Democratic candidate and will face off against Republican Nikki Ellis, an international affairs and media relations manager for the California Chamber of Commerce. As of September's campaign finance report, Krell has over $300,000 in cash and is expected to cruise to victory in November in this heavily Democratic seat.
AD 7 (Hoover)
REGISTRATION: D+4.61%
DISTRICT: Portions of Sacramento County, including the whole cities of Folsom, Rancho Cordova, and Citrus Heights. Following the American River.
OVERVIEW: This is a competitive district that incumbent Republican Josh Hoover flipped in 2022, unseating incumbent Democrat Ken Cooley after redistricting made the seat more competitive. Hoover is facing a challenge from Democrat and Citrus Heights city councilmember and former Mayor Porsche Middleton. Hoover, a moderate Republican, has seen just under $1 million in supportive independent expenditure by committed funded by the cardroom industry, DaVita, Uber, and other pro-business-sponsored committees. These committees have also spent over $100,000 in opposition to Middleton. Middleton has seen under $10,000 in supportive spending by committees funded by SEIU.
AD 8 (Patterson)
REGISTRATION: R +14.49%
DISTRICT:
Whole counties of Inyo, Tuolumne, Mariposa and Mono as well as
portions of Fresno, Madera and Calaveras counties.
OVERVIEW: Incumbent Republican Jim Patterson is termed out in 2024 for this safe Republican seat. Republican David Tangipa, a 28-year-old realtor and district representative for Fresno Supervisor Nathan Magsig, will face former GOP Congressman George Radanovich. Radanovich received close to 50% in Tuolumne and 40% or more in Calaveras, Madera, and Mariposa in the primary. Those counties comprise around 36% of the votes cast in the primary. Tangipa was strongest in Fresno County, which cast 57% of the votes in the primary. Both candidates have support from various corners of the elected GOP establishment and business groups.
As of September, Tangipa has roughly double the cash on hand of Radanovich ($122,321 to $67,288) Tangipa has also received Patterson's endorsement—a committee funded by tobacco companies reported just over $45,000 in independent expenditure to support Tangipa.
AD 13 (Villapudua)
REGISTRATION: D +25.10%
DISTRICT: Portions of San Joaquin County and the whole cities of Stockton and Tracy.
OVERVIEW: This is a safe Democratic district. Initially, incumbent Assemblymember Carlos Villapudua filed to run for re-election in this district. For the second consecutive cycle, progressives in the local Democratic Party blocked incumbent Carlos Villapudua from receiving the official California Democratic Party endorsement in the primary, with 73% voting in favor of 'No Endorsement.'
Then, the day before the end of the filing period, Villapudua's wife, Edith Villapudua, who had been running for the overlapping open Senate District 5 vacated by termed-out Sen. Susan Eggman, filed to run in this AD13 seat. A few days later, Carlos Villapudua announced that he and his wife were switching races and that he would run for the SD 5 Senate seat while Edith would run for his now-open assembly seat. Former Tracy City Councilmember Rhodesia Ransom, whom the California Democratic Party had endorsed for the overlapping SD 5 race, executed a last-minute switch and filed to run for Assembly instead. Denise Aguilar Mendez, a Republican who leads a far right organization known as the "Mamalitia," and is a Jan. 6 attendee, filed and qualified during the extension period.
The Villapuduas were both ultimately unsuccessful, with neither securing enough votes to progress to the general election. Ransom took the top spot in the primary with 41.6%, and the Republican Mendez, received 37.9% and a second-place finish. Edith Villapudua was a distant third with 20.5% of the vote. Ransom is all but certain to win in November against the Republican Mendez in this strongly Democratic district.
AD 15 (Grayson)
REGISTRATION: D +32.11%
DISTRICT: Portions of Contra Costa County, including the cities of Concord, Brentwood, Clayton, Martinez, Antioch, Pittsburg and Pleasant Hill as well as portions of the City of Walnut Creek.
OVERVIEW: Two Democrats participated in the primary election: Antioch City Councilmember Monica E. Wilson and Contra Costa County School Board member Anamarie Avila Farias. One Republican, Realtor Sonia Ledo, qualified for the primary ballot. Former Contra Costa Supervisor Karen Mitchoff who has previously run as a Democrat, ran with no ballot designation.
Ledo, as the sole Republican on the ballot, claimed the top spot in the primary. Monica Wilson received the California Democratic Party endorsement and had more than doubled the cash on hand of the other two Democrats. Avila Farias and Mitchoff counted endorsements from more moderate former and current legislators, while Wilson counted the progressive Working Families Party and the California Labor Federation as endorsers. However, after heavy spending by Mitchoff and Wilson allies, neither advanced into the top two. Instead, the number two spot went to Anamarie Avila Farias, who finished 1,437 votes behind Ledo with 30.4%. Having advanced alongside a Republican to the general election, Democrat Avila-Farias is expected to win in November in this safe Democratic seat.
AD 19 (Ting)
REGISTRATION: D +50.79%
DISTRICT: Consists of portions of San Francisco and San Mateo counties, including all of Daly City and the town of Colma, as well as the western portion of the City of San Francisco and portions of South San Francisco and San Bruno.
OVERVIEW: Incumbent Democrat Phil Ting is termed out in 2024, opening up a seat in a safely Democratic district. San Francisco Supervisor Catherine Stefani received the California Democratic Party endorsement, as well endorsements from San Francisco Mayor London Breed and Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis. Another Democrat, Educator, and former San Francisco Parks & Recreations Commissioner David Lee also ran in the primary race. Lee counts Asm. Ting's endorsement as well as the endorsement of former San Francisco State Senator Mark Leno. Stefani and two Republicans were also in the primary race.
Stefani was the top vote-getter with 57%, followed by Lee with 29%. The two Republicans split the 14% GOP vote. Stefani is heavily favored with double the cash on hand and double the independent expenditure dollars in support of her candidacy.
AD 26 (Low)
REGISTRATION: D +36.97%
DISTRICT: Portions of Santa Clara County, including the whole cities of Santa Clara, Cupertino, and Sunnyvale, and portions of the City of San Jose.
OVERVIEW: This is a safe Democratic district in Santa Clara County with a large Asian population. Incumbent Democrat Evan Low filed to run for the open CD16 seat that retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo vacated.
Low's district director, Foothill-De Anza Community College Trustee Patrick Ahrens, pulled papers hours after Eshoo's retirement announcement. Two other Democrats, Santa Clara County Board of Education member Tara Sreekrishnan and Sunnyvale Vice Mayor Omar Din, followed shortly afterward. One Republican, CPA Sophie Yan Song, Libertarian Bob Goodwyn, a retired airline pilot and frequent candidate, and No Party Preference candidate also qualified for the primary.
Ahrens was the top vote-getter in the primary, taking 34.4%, followed by Sreekrishnan in second with 26.9%. The race between the two Democrats will likely remain competitive in November. Ahrens secured the California Democratic Party's endorsement after the primary and has seen almost triple the independent expenditure spending (just shy of $1 million by law enforcement, tech companies, and business-aligned groups) to that of Sreekrishnan, who has seen most of her supportive independent spending coming from labor.
AD 32 (Fong)
REGISTRATION: R +22.54%
DISTRICT: Portions of Kern and Tulare counties, including the whole cities of Exeter, Ridgecrest, Tehachapi, Maricopa and Taft, and portions of the cities of Bakersfield and Visalia
OVERVIEW: Incumbent Republican Vince Fong was the only candidate to file nomination paperwork during the filing period and qualified for re-election on November 29, 2023. On Dec. 6 of that same year, Congressman Kevin McCarthy announced his intent to resign at the end of the year.
With Fong's successful election to Congress, the seat will be declared vacant in December upon the legislature's swearing-in, prompting a 2025 special election.
AD 33 (Mathis)
REGISTRATION: R +2.05%
DISTRICT: Consists of all of Kings County and portions of Tulare and Fresno counties, including the whole cities of Farmersville, Kingsburg, Lemoore, Tulare, Woodlake, Avenal, Porterville, Corcoran, Lindsay, Dinuba, and Hanford, and portions of the cities of Visalia and Reedley.
OVERVIEW: Incumbent Republican Devon Mathis announced he would not seek re-election two weeks before the end of the filing period. Two Democrats, Angel Ruiz Moran and perennial candidate Ruben Macareno, had pulled papers prior before Mathis' announcement. The day after Mathis' announcement, Republican Alexandra Macedo, the principal at Macedo Environmental Consulting and a fourth-generation Tulare livestock and almond farmer, launched her campaign with Mathis endorsing her. One other Republican, Tulare Healthcare District board member Xavier Avila, pulled papers after Mathis' announcement. Another Democrat Hipolito Cerros, the 25-yearold mayor of Lindsay, qualified near the end of the filing period. Macedo held a commanding lead over the field in cash on hand during the primary.
Macedo was the top vote-getter in the primary, with Avila taking the second spot at 23.5%, locking the three Democratic candidates out of the runoff. Macedo, who has the backing of Assembly Leader James Gallagher, Assemblyman Vince Fong, and much of the GOP establishment, appears to be heavily favored to prevail in November.
AD 36 (E. Garcia)
REGISTRATION: D +14.38%
DISTRICT: The district includes all of Imperial County and a large portion of Riverside County, including areas on the eastern and northeastern sides of the Coachella Valley. It also includes portions of San Bernardino County and the whole cities of Indio, Calexico, Brawley, Calipatria, Holtville, Imperial, Blythe, El Centro, Coachella, Needles and Westmorland as well as portions of the City of Hemet.
OVERVIEW: This is a strongly Democratic but red-trending majority-Latino VRA district encompassing all of Imperial County, a large segment of Riverside County, and parts of San Bernardino County. Incumbent Democrat Eduardo Garcia was expected to run for a final term in the Assembly but did not turn in any paperwork by the end of the filing deadline. Two local elected Democrats, Coachella Valley USD Trustee Joey Acuna and Indio City Councilmember Waymond Fermon pulled papers. After the filing period was extended, El Centro City Councilmembers Edgard Garcia and Tomas Oliva filed paperwork. Social worker and Central Union High School District trustee Eric Rodriguez also joined the Democratic field. Joey Acuna was the only candidate endorsed by incumbent Eduardo Garcia and both the present and former Assembly Speakers.
Before Garcia's surprise retirement, two Republicans—Jeff Gonzalez, a businessman, Marine Corps veteran, and 2018 general election candidate as well as Kalin Morse, a 21-year-old from an Imperial County farming family who lists his ballot description as "nonprofit director"—had filed.
Republican Jeff Gonzalez secured the bulk of the GOP vote and took the top spot with 35%, and Democrat Joey Acuna took the second spot in the runoff with 19.9%. Votes for the two Republicans combined for a total of 46.4% in the primary, which means that the general election race remains a heavy lift for the GOP. However, with a Presidential election on the ballot, lower-propensity voters could make or break this race for Republicans, making this a race to watch.
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