What We're Watching Today is 1,223 words and an 8-minute read.
Global: North Korea turns up tensions on the Korean Peninsula, declaring the South a “hostile state”
For decades, North Korea's policy towards South Korea was reunification under its governance. Now, Pyongyang seeks to modify its constitution and has reclassified South Korea as a "hostile state."
Our Take: North Korea has been escalating aggressive actions and rhetoric. Earlier this week, Pyongyang detonated symbolic roads and railways linking the north to the south. South Korean officials suggest that Pyongyang might be seeking to consolidate people's unity and build logic for a provocation by provoking tension against the South. North Korea has also increased testing of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles over the past couple of years. Experts assess Pyongyang may be planning an “October Surprise” by conducting a nuclear weapon test just before the US elections. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky is claiming that 10,000 North Korean troops are being trained to join Russian forces in Ukraine.
Read More: Reuters, RAND, Euronews
Europe: Poland plans to suspend asylum rights to protect the country's border with Belarus
Conflict between law enforcement and migrants travelling eastwards is leading the Polish government to impose security checks along the border with Belarus and temporarily suspend the EU's asylum policy.
Our Take: While EU member states are stating that their more stringent migrant policies are temporary, the migrant crisis is persistent, even if the numbers of migrants have fallen off dramatically since a high in 2015 of 1 million. Pressure for the European Commission to modify the EU policy on irregular migration requires consensus, which may be difficult to reach quickly. Meanwhile, more “temporary” measures can be expected.
Read More: Reuters, Euronews, Deutsch Welle
Middle East: Hamas leader confirmed killed in Gaza
Israel confirmed that it had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar after a day of speculation over whether its strike in Gaza had been successful.
Our Take: The death of Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7 attack, is a significant victory for Israel. Israel has successfully hollowed out Hamas' leadership structure: it killed Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif in July, and Hamas' leader in exile, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an explosion in Iran for which Israel has not taken credit. Already in disarray, Hamas' command and control will now likely be in tatters, although Prime Minister Netanyahu has cautioned that “the war is not over.” Israeli sources report that Sinwar's brother, Muhammad, may be taking charge in Gaza.
Read More: Washington Post [paywall], Jerusalem Post, The Atlantic
Americas: Bolsonaro to run for president in 2026 despite ban
Brazil's conservative Liberal Party (LP) confirmed that they are seeking to run ex-president Jair Bolsonaro as their candidate in the 2026 presidential elections, despite a court order barring him from running for president until 2030 due to baseless attacks against the country's electoral system.
Our Take: LP's insistence on Bolsonaro, a divisive and extremely popular right-wing populist leader, is unsurprising. Their ability to run him as a candidate, however, will rely on the outcomes of ongoing criminal investigations (he is currently under investigation for plotting a coup after his 2022 loss, for example), and securing a Senate majority ahead of 2026 elections in the hopes of impeaching Supreme Court justices who voted in favor of the former president's ban. Another Bolsonaro campaign could be rocky for Brazil; while the ex-president had close relationships with leaders like President Trump, his tenure was also marked by democratic backsliding and dramatic foreign relations.
Read More: Reuters, Associated Press, The Economist [paywall]
Asia-Pacific: Bangladesh issues arrest warrant for exiled former prime minister
A special court in Bangladesh on Thursday issued arrest warrants for former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and 45 of her affiliates, charging her with crimes against humanity during a student-led uprising over the summer that ultimately led her to flee to India.
Our Take: The issuance of arrest warrants for Sheikh Hasina and her affiliates marks a critical juncture in Bangladesh's political transition. While figures and groups opposed to her had already been calling for her extradition, her presence in India has complicated the situation, and the interim government's decision to move forward with ordering her arrest will significantly test the diplomatic relationship between Dhaka and New Delhi. India's reluctance to extradite Hasina could strain bilateral ties, while Bangladesh's interim government must navigate domestic pressure for accountability and potential international tensions.
Read More: Associated Press, NDTV, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Africa: Nigeria experiencing positive results from fiscal reforms, according to World Bank
The World Bank on Thursday stated that Nigeria is starting to realize the benefits of significant fiscal policy reforms that followed an economic crisis in 2020, but must stay on course.
Our Take: Nigeria's recent fiscal reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and currency devaluation, are driving improvements in fiscal stability and economic output. The reduction of the fiscal deficit, along with growth in service sectors and foreign exchange stabilization, indicates positive momentum. However, the ongoing inflationary pressures and rising cost of living accentuate the need for balancing long-term structural changes with short-term mitigation measures to protect vulnerable populations.
Read More: Reuters, African Business, World Bank
Trade & Compliance: UK weighs sanctions on Israeli ministers
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Wednesday revealed that the UK is deliberating on sanctioning Israel's finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over comments they made about Palestinian civilians in Gaza and the West Bank.
Our Take: The potential for UK sanctions on Israeli ministers accused of undermining international law align with growing international concerns about a worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza and escalation of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. If implemented, the sanctions serve to strain bilateral ties between Britain and Israel, which have traditionally been strong. Domestically, the UK will likely weigh the political and diplomatic repercussions of such a move, given the polarized views within its own constituencies.
Disruptive Technology: CISA flags critical SolarWinds flaw for exploited vulnerabilities catalog
The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) added a hardcoded credentials vulnerability in SolarWinds Web Help Desk to its known exploited vulnerabilities catalog.
Our Take: This flaw allows hackers to remotely access SolarWinds Web Help Desk without needing a password. Once in, they could potentially view or alter sensitive information, such as passwords or service accounts, which in turn could lead to bigger security breaches. The flaw is already being exploited in real-world attacks, and organizations using this software are strongly encouraged to update their systems to avoid potential security risks.
Read More: Cybersecurity Dive, SecurityWeek, US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency
Energy Transition: Europe's best funded battery startup misses targets, cancels projects
Northvolt, Europe's great hope for an alternative to Chinese EV batteries, is facing a liquidity crunch as the company's performance has failed to meet expectations.
Our Take: Northvolt is a familiar story of a company that grew too fast, driven by market interest, but lacking strong management, quality controls and realistic business plan needed to perform at expected levels. It is a cautionary story and risks denting investor confidence in the ability of western companies to develop an independent European supply chair for EVs. European governments, such as Germany and Sweden remain supportive of the project, which is a critical signal to investors for their risk/reward analysis, but the road to profitability is likely a long one.
Read More: Financial Times [paywall], FitchRatings
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