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31 March 2026

US Inflation Figures Could Stoke USD Volatility Today

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The pound (GBP) was mixed yesterday, as a lack of UK economic data left the currency rudderless.
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Pound (GBP) uncertain amid lack of data

The pound (GBP) was mixed yesterday, as a lack of UK economic data left the currency rudderless.

The risk-on mood sweeping markets saw Sterling slip against its riskier rivals, while firming or holding steady against safer peers, amid hopes that the crisis in the Middle East would improve sooner than expected.

British economic data remains thin on the calendar today. As a result, Sterling may struggle to find a clear direction.

Euro (EUR) subdued as German exports slump

The euro (EUR) slipped against its stronger peers yesterday after new data showed a 5.9% contraction in German exports in January, raising fresh concerns about the Eurozone’s largest economy.

However, EUR was cushioned by falling energy prices, which alleviated fears of an energy crisis damaging Eurozone growth.

Looking ahead, energy prices have started edging higher again today as the conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of letting up.

US dollar (USD) slides amid Middle East hopes

The US dollar (USD) retreated further yesterday as hopes for an end to the war in Iran dampened the safe-haven currency’s appeal.

Although uncertainty remains over the duration of the conflict in the Middle East and the long-term impact on oil prices, the upbeat mood prevailed throughout the session.

Turning to today, the latest US CPI is expected to show that American inflation held steady in February. Any surprises could infuse USD with volatility. Meanwhile, fresh risk aversion has helped the ‘greenback’ find its footing.

Canadian dollar (CAD) muted as oil prices stabilise

The crude-linked Canadian dollar (CAD) initially dipped yesterday as oil prices continued to retreat from recent highs. However, oil stabilised later in the session, helping CAD find its footing.

The ‘loonie’ may remain tied to oil prices through today’s session. If crude prices creep higher amid renewed worries about the Iran war, CAD could climb.

Australian dollar (AUD) buoyed by upbeat tone

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened overnight amid a risk-on market mood and rising commodity prices.

New Zealand dollar (NZD) wavers despite risk-on mood

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) initially rose amid last night’s risk-positive trade, but the ‘kiwi’ failed to hold on to its gains.

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