As we kick off 2025, global supply chains continue to shift. Ocean rates declined through December but saw a slight increase in early January as Lunar New Year (Jan 29, 2025) imports surged. Rates on Asia-EMEA lanes climbed further due to an equipment shortage, while air freight also saw modest rate increases, though still well below last year's extreme peak-season levels.
Domestically, freight and warehouse demand have edged up, driven by inventory pull-forward and repositioning efforts. At the same time, parcel carriers have announced 2025 rate increases, reinforcing their focus on profitability. Meanwhile, the new U.S. administration could introduce trade regulations that may require companies to adjust their supply chain strategies.
Click here to access this month's full update.
Highlights from this month's update:
- Ocean rates are stabilizing on Asia-US lanes but rising on Asia-EMEA lanes due to an equipment shortage.
- The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year master contract agreement, averting a potential strike at East and Gulf Coast ports.
- Over-the-road carriers face pricing pressure but may be nearing supply-demand equilibrium, with possible rate increases ahead.
- Air demand remains elevated, with small gains in rates.
- Parcel carriers have announced rate hikes for 2025, signaling a continued focus on profitability.
- Warehousing rates have risen slightly as importers built up inventory ahead of the holiday season.
- The new U.S. administration may introduce trade regulations, requiring a more flexible supply chain strategy.
Further reading:
Read the recent Harvard Business Review piece by AlixPartners Co-CEO David Garfield and Partner & Managing Director Sudeep Suman: How to Build a Strategy for the Coming Trade Battles
Originally published on Linkedin, 30 January 2025
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