From trade wars and shifting alliances to regional conflicts and populist politics, international developments are creating new risks and opportunities for businesses and their workforces. At our 2025 Managing an International Workforce conference, we explored the drivers behind geoeconomic fragmentation and geopolitical tensions, offering practical insights into what employers need to know to stay ahead of these unpredictable forces.
For years, surveys have ranked technology as the most significant factor shaping the world of work. Recently, however, geopolitics has surged up the agenda, driven by conflict, rising populism, and trade-related tensions.
Growing challenges to globalisation and weakened international trade relationships are forcing businesses to rethink their strategies, workforce planning, and operations. Meanwhile, domestic politics have also become more volatile, with traditional centre-left and centre-right parties facing competition from populist movements that defy conventional ideological left/right labels and often challenge existing policies around employment, migration, and diversity.
Our panel explored these trends through three case studies, illustrating how employers can take steps to prepare for rapidly shifting policy landscapes, anticipate new legal obligations, and support their people through uncertainty, while safeguarding company culture and ensuring workforce resilience.
Canada: trade, tariffs, and people impact
The first case study focused on Canada, where the Trump administration's trade policies have created an uncertain environment for businesses. Sonia Regenbogen, Partner at Toronto-based Mathews, Dinsdale & Clark LLP, Ius Laboris' Canadian member firm, underscored the deep economic ties between Canada and the United States, and how the imposition of steep tariffs on steel, aluminium, and other goods has tested Canadian employers' resilience.
The US tariffs' impact is already clear: they have driven up costs and dampened confidence across key sectors, with knock-on effects for jobs and investment. In response, the Canadian government has introduced targeted support packages for affected industries and strengthened skills training programmes at both federal and provincial levels. Ontario, for instance, recently introduced legislation allowing for extended temporary layoffs and additional career transition support to help workers cope with the disruption.
This highlights the need for businesses to prepare for sudden shocks. Stress-testing exposure to geopolitical risks can help organisations adjust their workforce plans and business strategies as circumstances change. Close collaboration with government-backed programmes can also retrain workers and keep skills up to date if redundancies or restructuring become unavoidable. In this context, investment in employees' cross-training and upskilling is a practical way to build the flexibility that companies may need as they pivot to new markets or shift their service offerings.
Italy: populist government and employment policy
Valeria Morosini, Partner at Toffoletto De Luca Tamajo, Ius Laboris' Italian member firm, in Milan, reflected on how the past three years under a populist government have shaped Italy's employment landscape, and on what this experience can teach employers elsewhere. Contrary to expectations that a right-wing populist party might overhaul worker protections or defy European regulations, the Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy) administration has taken an unexpectedly cautious and pragmatic approach.
Rather than pursuing sweeping reforms, it has opted to pass modest legislation focusing on narrow administrative matters, such as probationary periods and resignation procedures. Union relations have been left largely undisturbed, and traditionally controversial topics, such as minimum wage, have been kept off the table. Similarly, in other areas often marked by an equally polarising rhetoric, such as DEI and ESG, the government has left existing frameworks intact.
The Italian example demonstrates that political branding doesn't always predict policy action, especially in times of global uncertainty. So-called right wing populist parties face a conflict between traditional right-wing deregulatory instincts and the interests of their working-class base support who benefit most from workers' rights. Under populist leadership, therefore, employment law can remain stable and consistent as populist governments steer clear from major change in any direction.
This gives businesses a valuable window of opportunity to focus on long-term people and culture strategies. That said, while this kind of policy continuity is valuable, it also comes with a reminder not to become complacent. Businesses must therefore keep a close eye on emerging policy and regulatory debates and build flexibility into their workforce strategies, so that they can respond and adapt quickly if future political tides produce more substantive change.
Poland: military tensions and workforce resilience
Finally, Katarzyna Dobkowska, Partner at Raczkowski Law Firm in Warsaw, Ius Laboris' Polish member firm, discussed the challenges facing Poland, a country at the epicentre of European security concerns, where the war in neighbouring Ukraine has already had a disruptive impact on the labour market and society.
Government initiatives have prompted increased military training and preparedness, creating novel obligations and challenges for employers. While Poland doesn't have compulsory military service, it requires men (and, in certain professions, women) to attend qualification processes, in exchange for strong legal protections. This means that employees can be called up at short notice, and often for extended periods, yet they cannot be dismissed while they serve or for a period afterwards.
Katarzyna explained that most Polish businesses have coped well thus far, but the overall climate of uncertainty requires unprecedented efforts to build resilience into their people strategies. This includes planning for potential long-term absences by cross-training teams, creating succession plans for key roles, and ensuring that policies can adapt quickly as circumstances evolve. Furthermore, the steady influx of Ukrainian refugees, who have filled vital roles in sectors such as logistics, transport, and hospitality, also highlighted the value of policies that support integration and diversity within the workforce.
The Polish case sends employers a clear message: geopolitical instability can have concrete, and highly disruptive, workforce implications, so it pays to stay ahead of the curve. Forward-thinking employers can't afford to be reactive. By investing early in resilience, flexibility, and integration, companies operating in volatile contexts will not just manage disruption but also strengthen their long-term competitiveness.
Looking ahead: emerging themes for employers
Reflecting on these three case studies, our panel concluded that navigating unpredictable geopolitical circumstances requires employers to be both proactive and adaptable.
The most resilient organisations put flexibility at the heart of their workforce strategy and planning, spreading risk across geographies, developing contingency plans, and preparing to pivot quickly whenever geopolitical events take them by surprise.
At the same time, responding to ongoing disruption will depend in large part on developing the right skills. Investing in upskilling and cross-training not only equips people to adapt to new technologies and evolving roles, but also reduces dependence on any single expertise, making the entire business more flexible and adaptable. It also reinforces a culture of continuous learning, which empowers employees to embrace change, rather than fear it.
But preparing for geopolitical disruption isn't just a question of people and skills. Employers must also become more proactive in how they scan and respond to policy and regulation. This could mean dedicating resource to political and legal horizon-scanning, setting up regular briefings with expert advisers, or building internal capabilities so that business can anticipate and adapt quickly when new rules and frameworks emerge. Treating regulatory and geopolitical awareness as a core strategic skill will certainly give leaders more room to manoeuvre as the landscape shifts.
Finally, culture matters. Even the most robust strategies can come undone whenever workplaces fracture along political or social fault lines. These fault lines have grown with the rise of geopolitical conflict and intolerance.
Addressing these challenges means creating safe spaces for dialogue, setting clear expectations for respectful behaviour and communication, and making sure company values support inclusion and understanding. By weaving this kind of cultural resilience into their people strategy, employers will help teams stay united and engaged, even as turbulence grows outside.
As the panel made clear, geopolitical disruption isn't going away. Rather than waiting for stability to return, the key is to embrace resilience as a core part of workforce strategy. By doing so, HR and business leaders can help their organisations navigate the world of work with confidence, no matter what geopolitical shifts lie ahead.
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