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LONDON (11 November 2025) – Global consulting firm, AlixPartners, today released its 2025 UK Retail Christmas Sales Forecast, projecting that clothing sales are likely to deliver the strongest year-on-year growth of any UK retail segment this festive season. Sales are expected to rise by 3.8% year-on-year (adjusted for inflation) throughout November and December 2025, a turnaround from 2024 when sales saw a year-on-year decline of 3% over the same period.
By contrast, 2025 Christmas food sales – which are forecast to account for a larger share of festive spending in terms of value (£38bn versus £13bn for clothing sales) – are projected to grow by just 0.5% year-on-year (inflation-adjusted). This only marks a slight improvement on last year's performance, when food sales fell year-on-year by 0.01% in November and December 2024.
The AlixPartners Global Consumer Outlook, which recently surveyed over 2,000 UK consumers on Christmas holiday spending, reinforces this trend in grocery. The survey revealed that only 11% of UK consumers plan to spend more on Christmas meals in the coming months, while 19% said they'll be spending less, a net fall of 8%.
Commenting on these figures, Matt Clark, EMEA Head of Retail at AlixPartners, said:
"Fashion and grocery tell two very different stories this Christmas. Fashion has faced a perfect storm this year – declining high-street footfall, rising employment costs, and increased wholesale and production expenses have all weighed on performance. Yet, opportunity is emerging through the rapid expansion of sales channels, from social media and AI-driven platforms to brand apps, click-and-collect, and in-store. Retailers that embrace an omnichannel strategy and meet consumers wherever they shop will be best positioned to capture share this festive season.
"Grocery, by contrast, is all about value. The sector continues to grapple with price inflation, the impact of GLP-1/health trend, and growing concerns around food waste – all of which are prompting shoppers to buy less. Many are trading down to own-brand labels, with some ranges being 'premiumised' as consumers seek affordable indulgence. Grocers that sharpen their pricing and reinforce value will stand out as we enter the Golden Quarter."
In addition to exploring contrasting fortunes across separate retail categories, the 2025 UK Retail Christmas Sales Forecast also examines the festive outlook for UK retail sales overall.
Total UK retail sales for November and December 2025 are predicted to see muted but positive year-on-year growth, with the forecast anticipating a 4.9% rise in sales, which falls to 1.9% when adjusted for inflation.
These findings align with the AlixPartners Global Consumer Outlook, which revealed that just 7% of UK shoppers plan to spend more on retail purchases this holiday season compared to last year, versus 21% who said they'd be spending less.
Commenting on these figures, Paul Martin, Global Retail Growth Leader at AlixPartners, said:
"UK consumer confidence remains lumpy as we head into the festive season. Persistent inflation and potential tax rises in the Autumn Budget are weighing heavily, with shoppers staying value-focused and selective about discretionary purchases.
"That said, we shouldn't underestimate the UK's enthusiasm for Christmas and shoppers' desire to invest in having a good time, even in challenging economic conditions.
"Retailers that act decisively – prioritising promotions and events – can still capture share of wallet. Black Friday, now a six-to-eight-week phenomenon, offers a prime opportunity to tap into multiple paydays, particularly if the Budget drives shoppers to seek bargains later in the month."
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