What will Quebec’s economic prosperity look like in the years ahead? That is the question at the heart of Prospera, the Quebec Economic Barometer developed by BCF Business Law in collaboration with Quadrat Conseils.
Drawing on 28 variables, Prospera examines the structural factors shaping Quebec’s economy and how they have evolved since 1980, while comparing Quebec’s trajectory with those of Ontario and Canada as a whole. This approach provides a perspective that goes beyond current economic conditions to better understand the trends likely to shape Quebec’s economy over the medium term.
What does Prospera 2026 reveal about Quebec’s economy?
Growth, investment, human capital, businesses, environment and energy, households: the 2026 edition looks back at more than four decades of change to better understand the factors that have shaped Quebec’s economic trajectory and those that could influence its future.
This broader perspective is complemented by an analysis of two particularly timely issues: trade tensions with the United States and business succession. On the one hand, U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs are putting additional pressure on certain sectors of the economy. On the other, thousands of Quebec businesses are expected to change hands in the coming years.
Tariffs: What Impact Could They Have on Quebec’s Economy?
To assess their potential effects, this new edition examines ten key subsectors of Quebec’s economy that are particularly exposed to these trade tensions. Depending on the scenarios considered, the net reduction in output could range from $5.3 billion to $6.6 billion. Taking direct, indirect and induced effects into account, between 17,000 and nearly 23,000 jobs could be at risk.
Beyond their immediate effects, these tensions raise a broader question for Quebec: how can the province reduce its dependence on the U.S. market while maintaining the investment, innovation and productivity gains needed to support its long-term prosperity?
Business Succession: From Intention to Transfer Readiness
Nearly 38,000 businesses could change hands in Quebec over the next three years. Behind this figure lies a critical question: how many of them are truly ready to be transferred?
The presence of potential buyers alone is not enough to ensure a business’s continuity. The business itself must also be genuinely prepared for the transfer.
Prospera 2026 therefore examines business succession from both sides of the transaction. The report considers both the challenges facing buyers and the preparedness of sellers and their businesses. Financing, support, transfer readiness and management skills are among the key factors that can contribute to a successful business succession.
The stakes extend well beyond the transaction itself. Successfully transferring these businesses also means preserving jobs, know-how and assets that contribute to Quebec’s economic vitality.
Discover Prospera 2026
What factors could shape Quebec’s economic prosperity in the years ahead, and what role could business succession play?
Explore the findings, analyses and insights presented in Prospera 2026, the Quebec Economic Barometer.
Download Prospera 2026 report, the Quebec Economic Barometer (In French only)
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