HEADLINES FROM MAY 17 TO MAY 31, 2025
Opening observations:
During the second two weeks of May 2025 the following matters caught the eye:
- On May 21, 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published the Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. The publication provides a comprehensive assessment of the market for critical metals and minerals (CMM) and rare earth elements (REE)1, including relatively detailed outlooks for cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel, platinum metals, REEs, silicon, silver and uranium. Each outlook is worth a read.
To provide some context, the good folk at Elements have produced Visualizing the Abundance of Elements in the Earth's Crust which indicates, among other things, that bauxite (aluminium) is the most abundant element found in the earth's crust (at 8.23%), followed by iron (5.6%), calcium (4.15%), sodium (2.36%), magnesium (2.33%), potassium (2.09%) and titanium (0.565%). Other CMMs and REEs are to be found with other elements comprising 0.48% of the earth's crust.
In addition to outlooks for CMM and REE, the publication provides a clear narrative as to the need for CMM and REE for the purpose of the three main scenarios of the IEA. These scenarios are to be found in the IEA publication World Energy Outlook 2024 and are as follows:
- The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS);
- The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS); and
- The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario.
Further, in Chapter 3 of the publication, the implications of the analysis of supply and demand and each scenario are considered, including by reference to policy settings, regulation and legislation. These implications should be read with the CSIS (at https://www.csis.org, under G7 Cooperation to De Risk Minerals Investments in the Global South) report in mind.
By way of reminder: Edition 31 of P2N0 reported on the CSIS report as follows:
"CSIS reports on the progress that has been made by China across the Global South (and the means that China has to mitigate risks) and hazards the view that there may be benefit in G7 countries working together to derisk the level of investment needed to develop secure CMM supply chains.
CSIS states that the level of combined investment for these purposes is USD 590 billion to USD 2 trillion by 2040: the actual level of investment provided by G7 governments is in the region of USD 13 billion. The good folk at CSIS suggest that the G7 should establish a G7 Critical Minerals Investment Fund, and recounts the existing G7 initiatives: The Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI); and The Minerals Security Partnership (MSG), both championed by the Biden-Harris Administration.
Finally, CSIS provides some sound thinking (thinking long advocated by a good number of folk): Pooling of capital by G7 member states; Selection of strategic projects to allow the development of supply chains to make use of refining and production capacity; and Offtake agreements signed by members of G7 under which G7 members function as wholesale buyers of CMM."
Finally, to accompany the publication is the IEA Critical Minerals Data Explorer.
Footnote
1 CMMs are: 1. Bauxite, High Purity Alumina, and Aluminum; 2. Antimony; 3. Beryllium; 4. Bismuth; 5. Cobalt; 6. Copper; 7. Gallium; 8. Germanium; 9. Graphite; 10. Indium; 11. Lithium; 12. Magnesium; 13. Manganese; 14. Nickel; 15. Niobium; 16. Platinum metals; 17. Rare Earths Elements (REEs); 18. Silicon and Silicon metals; 19. Tantalum; 20. Titanium and Titanium metal; 21. Tungsten; 22. Uranium; and, 23. Vanadium. Edition 29 of P2N0 defines 17 REEs as follows: Cerium (Ce), Dysprosium (Dy), Erbium (Er), Europium (Eu), Gadolinium (Gd), Holmium (Ho), Lanthanum (La), Lutetium (Lu), Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr), Promethium (Pm), Samarium (Sm), Scandium (Sc), Terbium (Tb), Thulium (Tm), Ytterbium (Yb) and Yttrium (Y).
Click here to read the full report.
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