Highlights
- With the July 9, 2025, end date for the suspension of country-specific reciprocal tariffs approaching, stakeholders are encouraged to review where ongoing bilateral negotiations stand, as well as potential outcomes and how evolving trade dynamics could impact their interests.
- The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) reportedly has led the bilateral negotiations and made progress with several trading partners toward reaching deals, but the administration has released little information on the status of the bilateral negotiations or potential trade deal terms.
- This Holland & Knight alert provides a current snapshot of the trade talks and a status update for the 18 ongoing negotiations.
As the July 9, 2025, end date for President Donald Trump's suspension of country-specific reciprocal tariffs draws near, stakeholders should consider where ongoing bilateral negotiations stand, what the potential outcomes may be and how the shifting trade and tariff dynamics could impact their interests. Holland & Knight's International Trade Group has been monitoring the bilateral trade talks and provides a status update on the 18 ongoing negotiations in this alert.
Background: Global Reciprocal Tariffs
On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs on imports of goods from every U.S. trading partner, throwing U.S. bilateral trade relations into flux. The reciprocal tariffs, which were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), imposed a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports into the United States from nearly all countries and higher, country-specific reciprocal tariffs calculated based on bilateral trade deficits. These country-specific rates ranged from 11 percent to 50 percent.
The Trump Administration announced a 90-day pause on nearly all of the country-specific reciprocal tariffs on April 9, 2025, reducing these tariffs to the 10 percent baseline while the U.S. and its trading partners negotiate new bilateral trade agreements. This pause on the country-specific reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9, 2025, after which these tariffs will go back into effect unless otherwise modified.
Status of Bilateral Trade Negotiations
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) reportedly has led the bilateral negotiations and made progress toward reaching deals with several trading partners. However, the administration has released little information on the status of the bilateral negotiations or potential trade deal terms. U.S. Department of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently remarked that multiple trade agreements are nearing completion; however, China and the United Kingdom remain the only agreed-upon deals so far. As such, following the July 9 deadline, the administration could reimpose country-specific reciprocal tariffs on a substantial number of trading partners that have not yet reached a deal with the U.S. Reimposition of these tariffs could significantly increase costs to import goods into the U.S., disrupt supply chains and impact all sectors of the economy.
In the chart below, the most recent public reporting on the 18 ongoing bilateral trade negotiations identified by Holland & Knight is highlighted. It should be reiterated, however, that the U.S. government has released little information on these negotiations.
|
Country |
Status |
Date of Last Publicly Reported Update |
|
U.K. |
Finalized: A trade deal was signed at the G7 summit and implemented on June 30, 2025, reducing tariffs on U.K. exports, including cars and aerospace products. The U.S. received increased market access for its export to the U.K., particularly agricultural exports. The deal leaves steel and aluminum tariffs unresolved, with the potential to rise to 50 percent by July 9, 2025. |
June 16, 2025 |
|
China |
Preliminary Agreement: A trade agreement was reached on June 26, 2025, which includes China easing restrictions on rare earth exports and the U.S. lifting certain export controls; however, specific details have yet to be announced. Significant issues, such as the U.S. trade deficit with China and allegations of unfair trade practices, remain unresolved. |
June 27, 2025 |
|
India |
Negotiations Ongoing: President Trump announced that a "very big" deal with India is likely to be finalized soon, as negotiations continue in Washington. The deal's finalization is still uncertain as disagreements remain over agricultural and dairy products. |
June 30, 2025 |
|
Japan |
Negotiations Ongoing: Negotiations between Japan and the U.S. are reportedly deadlocked, with Japan seeking lower auto tariffs and the U.S. pushing back on those demands. |
June 19, 2025 |
|
South Korea |
Negotiations Ongoing: South Korea has expressed the need for the ongoing trade negotiations to extend beyond the upcoming July 9 deadline, citing disagreements related to tariffs on automobiles and steel. |
June 30, 2025 |
|
Vietnam |
Negotiations Ongoing: Vietnam expects to finalize a trade deal with the U.S. before the July 9 deadline, citing frequent communication with the Trump Administration and recent productive rounds of talks. |
June 25, 2025 |
|
Mexico |
Negotiations Ongoing: Negotiations continue and focus on a potential quota system to reduce the 50 percent tariffs on steel imports. |
June 24, 2025 |
|
European Union |
Negotiations Ongoing: Negotiations continue following a new U.S. trade proposal, though the EU is preparing contingency measures if no agreement is reached before the July 9 deadline. |
June 26, 2025 |
|
Canada |
Negotiations Ongoing: Negotiations have resumed following Canada's agreement to remove its digital services tax. President Trump had suspended negotiations based on Canada's now-abandoned plan to begin collecting these taxes on June 30, 2025. The parties aim to complete the current negotiations aim before a July 21, 2025, deadline agreed upon at the G7 summit. |
June 30, 2025 |
|
Thailand |
Negotiations Ongoing: Negotiations continue in Washington this week after Thailand submitted a five-point proposal and requested a tariff cap of 10 percent. |
June 29, 2025 |
|
Cambodia |
Negotiations Ongoing: Cambodia submitted a detailed proposal ahead of the July 9 deadline, and the parties are now engaged in a multi-round negotiation process. |
June 26, 2025 |
|
Malaysia |
Negotiations Ongoing: Malaysia says the U.S. has agreed to finalize trade talks before the July 9 deadline. |
June 22, 2025 |
|
Philippines |
Negotiations Ongoing: The Philippines hopes for an extension beyond the July 9 deadline as negotiations continue. |
June 18, 2025 |
|
Taiwan |
Negotiations Ongoing: Taiwan and the U.S. have completed a second round of trade talks in Washington and report "constructive progress" on tariffs, non-tariff barriers and supply‑chain resilience. |
June 29, 2025 |
|
Indonesia |
Negotiations Ongoing: Indonesia has eased licensing requirements on import rules and offered to increase U.S. access to critical minerals as part of efforts to advance progress in the negotiations before the July 9 deadline. |
June 30, 2025 |
|
Pakistan |
Negotiations Ongoing: Pakistan reported that it expects to conclude trade talks with the U.S. in the near term following constructive negotiations. |
June 25, 2025 |
|
Switzerland |
Negotiations Ongoing: Swiss officials say they are still actively negotiating with the U.S. and are optimistic that a deal can be reached by the July 9 deadline. |
June 25, 2025 |
|
Argentina |
March 4, 2025 |
Takeaways
- With less than two weeks until the July 9 deadline, the U.S. has announced deals only with the U.K. and China, although Secretary Lutnick recently indicated that the administration expects 10 trading partners to reach agreements with the United States before July 9, which he says will inform the terms of other agreements. Public reports indicate that Indian and Japanese trade officials are scheduled to meet with U.S. counterparts in the coming days in the hopes of reaching final agreements, suggesting they may be among the 10 countries Secretary Lutnick referenced. Still, the Trump Administration's original goal of achieving "90 deals in 90 days" appears far from reach.
- Recently reported comments from members of the Trump Administration indicate that trading partners who do not reach agreements by the deadline will face increased tariffs but have the ability to continue negotiations thereafter. If this occurs, U.S. companies that rely on imported goods may face significant tariff hikes.
- The unclear legal status of the reciprocal tariffs creates an additional layer of uncertainty. Two recent federal court rulings struck down the reciprocal tariffs, holding that these measures exceed the president's authority under IEEPA. However the tariffs remain in place for now while appellate courts hear appeals filed by the administration. Ultimately, the U.S. Supreme Court may decide the legality of the reciprocal tariffs.
- Given all these sources of uncertainty, stakeholders should prepare for volatility and strategize for a variety of potential outcomes.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
