Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed revised figures showing UK net migration reached a record-breaking 906,000 in the year ending June 2023. This figure represents the difference between those entering and leaving the UK for more than 12 months during that period.
The news prompted sharp criticism from the Prime Minister, who attributed these levels to policies of the previous government and announced plans for a White Paper to reduce immigration—a recurring theme in UK political discourse (see Fragomen's earlier blog on the topic here).
Simultaneously, provisional ONS data for the year ending June 2024 showed net migration had dropped nearly 20% to 728,000. It is this downward trend that warrants closer scrutiny to understand its implications for UK immigration policy.
Balancing policy and strategy: Insights from the MAC
In its 2023 end-of-year report, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), the government's independent immigration policy advisor, emphasised focusing on the composition of migration and its economic impacts, rather than net migration numbers alone. Ignoring these nuances risks poor policy decisions that may harm sectors dependent on immigration, especially amid constraints in other areas of public policy.
Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford (and a MAC member), reiterated this in Fragomen's Horizon Election Conversation series. She stressed the need for clearer debates linking overall migration levels to individual visa categories. Immigration policies involve trade-offs, and decisions should be informed by detailed data on specific impacts.
The government has shown some agreement with this thinking. As noted in this earlier blog, although seeking to reduce numbers, it has avoided setting explicit net migration targets, indicating acknowledgment that optimal immigration levels depend on strategic needs. This stance was reiterated during the press conference on the ONS data. The MAC is also conducting sectoral reviews to assess reliance on immigration. However, public messaging often struggles to reconcile this nuanced approach with political commitments to reduce migration, as seen in the Prime Minister's press conference remarks.
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