1 What is COP29?
The 29th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties ("COP29") is being convened in Baku, Azerbaijan between 11 and 22 November 2024. COP29 will be attended by a number of high-profile heads of state and members of the business community from some of the 198 signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ("UNFCCC"), along with climate and sustainability experts, NGOs and campaigners.
COP29 represents an important opportunity to escalate ambition towards national climate plans and to accelerate the ongoing green transition in an effort to safeguard the pledges made by the signatories to the Paris Agreement. This year's meeting has been dubbed the "finance COP", as stakeholders and delegates look to mobilise the finance necessary to facilitate the transition towards a climate-resilient future aligned with the Paris Agreement.
The Paris Agreement, which was agreed at COP21 in 2015, is the most important international treaty on climate change – with a focus on climate change mitigation, adaptation and finance. It sets legally binding obligations for signatories to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to hold the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This is in addition to creating funding mechanisms for less developed countries to implement climate change mitigation and adaption policies, along with financial support for communities who are the most physically and financially vulnerable to the climate crisis.
2 What is at stake?
COP28 culminated in the UAE Consensus, which represented the formal outcome of the first Global Stocktake (see our COP28 legal briefing here). The UAE Consensus recognised that existing Nationally Determined Contributions ("NDCs") fell considerably short of what is required to limit global temperature rises and united COP28, COP29 and COP30 (known as the presidencies "Troika") around a common goal of securing more ambitious NDCs that align with the overarching goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C (referred to by the UN as the 'Roadmap to Mission 1.5°C').
The Paris Agreement (Article 4, paragraph 2) requires each party to the Paris Agreement to prepare, communicate and maintain successive NDCs. NDCs are the national action plans for individual countries which relate to tackling climate change, including policy measures to mitigate and prevent global warming. While NDCs are determined at a national level, they are set within the framework of the UNFCCC (including agreements flowing therefrom, like the Paris Agreement and the Consensus). Parties to the Paris Agreement were required to submit the first round of NDCs in 2015, and every five years thereafter (i.e. by 2020, 2025, 2030).
COP29 will play an important role in achieving this goal – as it represents the final push before countries are required to submit their updated NDCs by February 2025 (for the period ending in 2035). The 2035 emissions reductions targets contained within the next round of NDCs will provide a valuable insight into how seriously countries are taking their climate goals.
Recognising this, the Troika and the Roadmap to Mission 1.5°C have adopted a strategy that is designed "to stimulate ambition in the next round of nationally determined contributions with a view to enhancing action and implementation... and keeping 1.5°C within reach".
However, COP29 is already proving to be contentious, with some questioning whether Azerbaijan is a suitable host. Any net zero transition would be challenging for Azerbaijan's economy, which, according to Carbon Tracker, is among a list of countries that have the "greatest fiscal dependence on oil and gas revenues". With that said, the UAE Consensus was the first COP agreement to recognise the "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems" as a means of achieving "net zero by 2050" – and we note that the UAE also appears in Carbon Tracker's report, suggesting that economies of this nature are willing to make commitments in the right circumstances.
3 Key themes at COP29
Azerbaijan has outlined a framework for action for COP29, which has three main themes:
(i) ensuring global warming remains below 1.5°C;
(ii) ensuring an inclusive process; and
(iii) 'two pillars' of enhancing ambition and enabling action.
The first pillar - "enhancing ambition" – is aimed at ensuring parties submit ambitious NDCs while the second pillar - "enabling action" - reflects the critical role that finance must play in turning ambition into action.
These pillars feed into the wider goals for COP29, which are as follows:
Climate finance
As COP29 comes into focus, climate finance remains a central issue. It is estimated that an annual global target of $500 billion is needed from 2025, with a target of $1.55 trillion by 2030. This is at least five times more than the current $100 billion commitment.
The New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance ("NCQG")
Back in 2009, the 'developed world' agreed to provide $100 billion to support the developing world's climate action at the Copenhagen Climate Summit. The NCQG was introduced under the Paris Agreement to replace the previous goal, and it is on the agenda to be agreed at COP29 (and finalised in 2025). However, there is currently disagreement as to who should contribute to the NCQG, how much they should pledge, how long they should be committing funds for and how the money should be mobilised.
Progress from COP28
Countries will be expected to build on the progress made at COP28 by standing by their pledges and announcing new and ambitious steps to achieve them. It will also provide an opportunity to take stock of what progress has been made.
The Loss and Damage Fund
The Loss and Damage Fund is intended to help vulnerable countries deal with climate change impacts that cannot simply be adapted to, such as sea level rise and the loss of habitats due to flooding. At COP28, the Loss and Damage Fund was operationalised and now countries must begin to contribute to it. It is currently unclear whether the NCQG will include the Loss and Damage Fund.
Pushing for new NDCs
As discussed above, the signatories agreed under the Paris Agreement to submit stronger NDCs every five years. The next round of NDCs are due in early 2025, making COP29 the last major opportunity to set clear objectives in relation to NDCs.
4 What is the UK doing in the run-up to COP29?
In December 2020, the UK communicated its NDC to the UNFCCC, committing to reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by at least 68% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.
On 26 October 2024, the UK's Climate Change Committee (the "Committee") published a letter (addressed to Ed Miliband, the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero) recommending that the UK's new NDC commits to "reduce territorial greenhouse gas emissions by 81% from 1990 to 2035". This would be an ambitious target but is purportedly in line with the Committee's 'Seventh Carbon Budget', which will be published at the end of February 2025. It is anticipated that the UK will publish its new NDC during COP29.
While the UK's Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, has not yet formally confirmed whether he will attend COP29, the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero will be joined by the Minister for Climate, Kerry McCarthy, alongside other senior officials.
5 What's next?
COP29 will see the majority of Paris Agreement stakeholders discuss the continued effort to transition away from fossil fuels. The UN's Executive Director for the UN environment programme, Inger Andersen, recently wrote that "climate crunch time is here", and that the world should use COP29 to "increase action now, set the stage for dramatically stronger NDCs that target 1.5°C, and then go all out to deliver the necessary emissions cuts by 2030, by 2035 and beyond until net-zero is achieved".
With only a few more weeks until the conference begins, the world stands at a pivotal moment for global climate co-operation. At a time when political tensions between major international powers remain high, COP29 offers a critical opportunity to mobilise the finance necessary to facilitate the transition towards a climate-resilient future aligned with the Paris Agreement.
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