What We're Watching Today is 1,578 words and a 10-minute read.
Global: British Intelligence warns of resurgent ISIS and al-Qaeda threat
In a rare public speech, British domestic intelligence director General Ken McCallum warned that ISIS was resuming efforts to export terrorism.
Our Take: With the war in Ukraine and expanding conflict in the Middle East, trade tensions between the US and China, risks of disruptive technology, public attention on the global terrorism threat has receded, even if the threats have not. McCallum referenced the challenge of tracking terrorist threats alongside of state-backed assassination and sabotage plots by Russia and Iran. There is a long history of conflict in the Middle East being exploited by extremist groups to radicalize, recruit and mobilize terrorist operations, increasing risks of a new surge in terrorist planning against western targets. Twenty-three years after the 9/11 attacks, the terrorism threat is more diverse, with groups seeking innovative ways to exploit new technologies to evade surveillance and executive murderous attacks across the globe.
Read More: CNN, Reuters, Soufan Center
Europe: Georgia's ruling party starts impeachment of pro-Western president before October 26 election
Georgia's ruling party lawmakers plans to move to impeach the pro-Western president ahead of a parliamentary election on Oct. 26, a year after a previous impeachment effort failed.
Our Take: This political maneuver is just one more effort by the Georgian Dream party to limit the ability of Georgia's pro-democracy opposition to mobilize a united front in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The Georgian Dream does not have enough votes to impeach President Shalva Papuashvilli, but the attack seeks to divert her efforts to unify the opposition. Georgia's political future is at stake in the elections, with the opposition pledging to steer the country decisively towards membership in the European Union and adherence with EU values. Georgia Dream is threatening to ban the "collective National Movement," the pre-Western opposition groups associated with the main opposition party, the United National Movement, if the ruling party wins at the poll. The country faces increased risks of election violence pre- and post-elections.
Read More: Reuters, Radio Free Europe, Carnegie Endowment
Middle East: Israel confirms death of two Nasrallah successors
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed Tuesday that Israeli airstrikes had killed two successors to Hizballah leader Nasrallah in recent days. The statement ended speculation over the fate of Hashem Safieddine, a nephew of Nasrallah who was targeted in strikes on Beirut last week, although the identity of the "replacement of the replacement" was unclear.
Our Take: The deaths of Saffieddine and his apparent successor are yet another strategic blow to Hizballah, which lost Nasrallah and much of its middle leadership in escalating Israeli airstrikes throughout Beirut in recent weeks. The losses come as Israel steps up its ground invasion of Beirut, part of a bid to secure the northern border for Israeli residents and, hopefully, deal a decisive blow to longtime combatant Hizballah. The impending impact on Hizballah's command and control is uncertain; the armed group remains well-armed and has been operating relatively diffusely for weeks now, although a US official last week said the group was in "complete disarray" following Nasrallah's death.
Read More: Reuters, Center for Strategic and International Studies, ABC News
Americas: Mexico unveils new plan to fight cartel violence
Newly inaugurated Mexican President Sheinbaum unveiled a promised plan to combat drug cartel violence, but observers said it was mostly a continuation of predecessor AMLO's policy.
Our Take: Cartel violence was one of the top issues on the new president's to-do list, as rates of cartel-related homicide and extortion have risen precipitously. AMLO was criticized both for failing to directly confront cartels, a plan widely referred to as "hugs, not drugs," and also for militarizing the previously civilian-controlled security apparatus. Both trends seem likely to continue under Sheinbaum, who also promised more resources towards intelligence, and highlighted increased efforts to stem the flow of fentanyl into the US, where it is fueling a major drug crisis.
Read More: Associated Press, Wall Street Journal [paywall]
Asia-Pacific: Thai PM states ASEAN must play critical role in resolving Myanmar crisis
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Monday stated that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must provide key support for ending the protracted civil war in Myanmar, ahead of a summit of the bloc in Laos this week.
Our Take: Prime Minister Paetongtarn's recent statement demonstrates a growing recognition within ASEAN of the need for stronger intervention in Myanmar's prolonged crisis. As Thailand prepares to collaborate with Malaysia and other regional partners, such efforts signal a shift toward greater diplomatic engagement in contrast to ASEAN's historically non-interventionist stance. However, ASEAN's continued struggles to implement its Five-Point Consensus highlight the bloc's limitations in dealing with Myanmar's military junta, potentially enabling the spread of instability in Southeast Asia and beyond.
Read More: Reuters, The Diplomat, East Asia Forum
Africa: UN considers suspending relief to Ethiopia's Amhara region following attacks on aid workers
Reuters reports that the United Nations is debating on suspending relief operations in Ethiopia's Amhara region after deadly attacks on humanitarian workers, according to a draft proposal verified by two diplomats.
Our Take: The UN's potential suspension of relief operations in Ethiopia's Amhara region signals a deepening humanitarian and security crisis in the East African nation. The UN proposal states that Ethiopia's government would need to agree to a series of commitments and further security measures before the UN considers restarting relief work in Amhara. Yet, with 2.3 million people reliant on aid, this action could worsen an already dire situation for civilians caught between government forces and militias. The growing instability in Amhara and potential withdrawal of UN relief aid reflects broader fissures in Ethiopia, posing operational risks for businesses, NGOs, and governments engaged in the region.
Read More: Reuters, Crisis Group
Trade & Compliance: US sanctions Hamas funding network on anniversary of Gaza war
The US Treasury Department on Monday, the one-year anniversary marking the Hamas-led attack on Israel, announced sanctions on the Palestinian militant group's international funding network, designating three individuals and two entities, as well as a long-standing Hamas support and nine of his businesses.
Our Take: The latest US sanctions on Hamas's funding network mark the continuation of efforts to target the group's financial infrastructure. By designating individuals and entities across several countries, Washington aims to disrupt the group's global fundraising activities, which reportedly generate millions monthly under the guise of charitable activities. These designations further accentuate the role of international financial networks in supporting militant groups, highlighting ongoing complexities in counterterrorism finance measures.
Read More: The Hill, US Department of the Treasury, Atlantic Council
Disruptive Technology: CISOs and C-suite continue to disagree on corporate cyber resilience
According to a report published last week by PwC, significant gaps remain between assessments of cyber resilience among top security executives and C-suite leadership.
Our Take: Misalignment between CISOs and C-suite executives over corporate cyber resilience stands as a major hazard regarding companies' vulnerability to cyber threats. While over two-thirds of technology leaders view cybersecurity as their top risk to mitigate, less than half of business leaders share this view, signaling a disconnect in prioritizing cyber risks. This gap reflects broader challenges in integrating cybersecurity into business strategy, with CISOs often excluded from key decision-making processes. As companies face increasingly sophisticated cyber-attacks that risk significant financial and reputational fallout, bridging this divide will likely prove critical for aligning security goals with overall business objectives.
Read More: Cybersecurity Dive, PwC, World Economic Forum
Climate Change: Hurricane Milton threatens an already battered Florida
The densely populated west coast of Florida is preparing for Hurricane Milton to make landfall on Wednesday.
Our Take: In the last two months of the Atlantic hurricane season, Florida is preparing for a second major hurricane in two weeks. Fed by unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Milton became the third-fastest intensifying storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean, moving from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. Scientists asses that climate change is leading to more instances of rapid intensification. Now downgraded to a Category 4, authorities are urging mass evacuations of low-lying coastal developments in and around Tampa Bay, with risks of catastrophic damage from storm surges up to 12 feet.
Read More: Reuters, NBC, BBC, Axios
ESG: Green hydrogen more expensive than carbon capture, Harvard study finds
A new Harvard study found that the cost of producing green hydrogen, which is produced with renewable electricity and is currently seen as a promising alternative fuel, is cost prohibitive. The same study found that carbon capture and storage is much less expensive – making it potentially more economical to enhance CSS technology rather than invest in alternative fuels.
Our Take: An entirely clean energy source, green hydrogen has long been seen as an area of promise in the alternative fuel sector – but also a scientific riddle, as the fuel is difficult to transport and store, requires significant infrastructure investment, and is produced using large amounts of renewable electricity. The Harvard study found that for every metric ton of carbon dioxide it now reduces, green hydrogen costs between $500 and $1,250, as opposed to CSS, which ranges between $100 and $1,000 a ton. Further, in order to meet demand, the sector would need to grow at an unprecedented compound annual growth rate of over 90% from 2024 until 2030. The study could cause investors to take some pause, although demand for the technology remains strong and growing.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], World Economic Forum
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