Mining: Critical Minerals, Geopolitics And Regulation

Strategic realignment, supply‑chain security and interventionist regulators are setting the tone for 2026

Looking back on 2025  

In 2025, mining M&A continued to be driven by the energy transition and strong demand for critical minerals, with copper, lithium, nickel and other battery metals supporting a robust deal pipeline. Activity also became increasingly policy-driven, with geopolitical factors – including US-China relations and security of supply for critical minerals – shaping strategy alongside commodity prices. Record high gold prices supported increased levels of precious metals M&A, while weaker base and ferrous metal prices limited some deal activity.  

Acquisition-led growth remained the dominant strategy, as the cost and complexity of developing new projects made greenfield expansion less attractive. Public M&A activity in the sector remained strong, broadly in line with 2024 levels. Notable transactions in 2025 highlighted the diversity of dealmaking in the sector, including the proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, which would create a substantially scaled, copper-focused business. Competition for high-quality, well-located assets, in particular in copper, remained intense. 

From a legal and transaction perspective, 2025 was characterised by competitive sale processes for critical mineral assets. There was increased use of all-share consideration, contingent value mechanisms and earn-outs, as well as other types of contingent or deferred consideration structures, including the incorporation of royalty arrangements into overall consideration packages. The regulatory environment also became more demanding, with enhanced competition and foreign direct investment (FDI) clearance processes and regulatory requirements linked to tax, local content and community investment requirements. These factors contributed to greater transaction complexity. 

Securing and diversifying critical mineral supply chains is expected to remain a central driver of M&A activity in 2026.

Looking ahead at 2026 

Mega-mergers, industry consolidation and portfolio realignment 

The consolidation momentum from 2025 has extended into early 2026, with renewed merger discussions having taken place among major players Rio Tinto and Glencore (albeit such discussions have since terminated). The potential for large-scale M&A transactions or other types of corporate restructurings to realign portfolios remains firmly on the radar, particularly as majors seek to expand their copper portfolios and focus alignment on key commodities.   

Large-cap take-private deals may also emerge, particularly in Australia, where private equity interest in listed miners is increasing. In Africa, governments are increasingly dictating terms and looking for mega-transactions to be implemented with State participation/free-carry, or in partnership with state-owned enterprises, to achieve "win-win" outcomes and sharing of benefits over mine life.   

Given their scale and strategic significance, mega-mergers and other consolidation or portfolio realignment transactions will continue to face heightened regulatory and stakeholder scrutiny. 

Focus on critical minerals, supply chains and market diversification 

Securing and diversifying critical mineral supply chains is expected to remain a central driver of M&A activity in 2026. With mining and processing capacity for certain rare earth metals concentrated in only a handful of geographies and subject to geopolitical sensitivities, governments and corporates are expected to prioritise strategic transactions aligned with national and industrial priorities. This includes joint ventures, state-supported initiatives and targeted acquisitions involving commodities such as copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese, rare earth assets (among other critical minerals) and uranium, as well as strategic offtake and stockpiling arrangements.  We expect increasing demand for offtake and local supply mechanisms, and commitments to in-country investment, procurement, processing/beneficiation and skill transfer, with these factors being reflected as conditions to M&A regulatory approvals.  

Policy frameworks in major mining jurisdictions will also continue to evolve to bolster supply chain security. In the US, the Trump administration has recently advanced a proposal to establish a coordinated critical minerals trading framework with allied countries, aimed at reducing reliance on China’s dominant position in the processing and supply of key strategic materials. The initiative contemplates closer co-operation on sourcing and stockpiling strategic materials, market standards and pricing mechanisms to support alternative supply networks, and may further influence cross-border investment flows and strategic transaction activity involving critical mineral assets. In Australia, the Government plans to implement a strategic reserve of critical minerals, which may include stockpiling and national offtake agreements.  

More broadly, policy initiatives aimed at strengthening domestic capabilities for mining, processing and recycling critical minerals are progressing in a number of jurisdictions. Read more about our insights on the approaches to critical minerals and their implications for industry participants here in respect of the US and EU and here in respect of the UK.   

The focus on supply security for critical minerals could also mean that some mining companies may reconsider returning to jurisdictions which were previously considered too 'high risk', to ensure that they get quick access to such minerals. 

Geopolitics and strategic risk 

Geopolitical factors will also likely remain key drivers of mining M&A in 2026. Developments in US-China relations, Russia and Ukraine, Venezuela and Arctic and Greenland resource projects are likely to shape investment strategies and cross-border transactions. Increasingly, government engagement beyond standard regulatory approvals will be required to navigate foreign investment screening and national security concerns, affecting deal planning and timing to achieve completion. 

Outright and progressive expropriations and nationalisations of mining assets and infrastructure continue to be prevalent, notably across Africa, and are not expected to diminish. As a result, it is more important than ever to anticipate these risks by securing legal stability, international investment treaty protection where possible and access to international arbitration in case of disputes. 

Beyond traditional corporate mergers, strategic partnerships between governments, government agencies and the private sector are also likely to expand, in particular in the US and allied countries. Find out more about the US-Australia critical minerals corridor here in respect of the US and Australia. 

For more information on geopolitical risks including tariffs, see our 2026 Global M&A report here.  

Public M&A activity  

Public M&A momentum in the mining sector from 2025 is expected to continue in 2026. Multiple transactions announced or ongoing in 2025 signal renewed engagement with public market deals alongside broader consolidation. Private capital will remain influential, particularly through take-private transactions, while junior and intermediate miners may attract targeted interest as majors prioritise strategic growth. 

Regulatory intervention  

Regulatory scrutiny of mining transactions continues to intensify, particularly for assets and minerals deemed strategically important. Governments around the globe are continuing to closely scrutinise transactions involving critical minerals.  

The extraction and processing of critical and other minerals are already an area of focus for foreign investment screening regimes including in Australia, Canada and the UK. Regulatory frameworks in these countries, and also the EU, the US and in a number of African countries, are expected to evolve further. Transactions involving mines and mining companies (particularly the large players) are also likely to engage merger control regimes, inviting scrutiny on the impact on competition of such deals and creating more scope for in-depth merger reviews. In Australia, the mandatory merger control regime (which commenced on 1 January 2026) continues to develop. 

The EU's also in the process of negotiating the implementation of the Industrial Accelerator Act. The aim of the act is to strengthen demand for EU-made clean products and deliver clean European supply for energy-intensive sectors. Leaked versions of the legislation indicate that in certain strategic sectors, non-EU ownership being legally capped at 49% is being considered, which would require investors to enter into joint ventures to own such businesses. 

The evolving regulatory frameworks and conditional approvals are expected to continue affecting deal timing, outcomes and create legal uncertainty.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.