What We're Watching Today is 1,078 words and a 7-minute read.
Global
Multi-billion-dollar Russian money laundering rings exposed in global sting
Two Russian money laundering networks, Smart and TGR, used by drug gangs, cyber criminals and sanctioned oligarchs have been exposed, with 84 arrested, disrupted in an international sting.
Our Take: The network spanned 30 countries and was based in Moscow. It is accused of laundering money from UK street drugs market, exchanging the cash for cryptocurrency. The network reportedly was also used by Russia to fund intelligence operations and by Russian oligarchs under sanctions to move their money. TRG and Smart operated as an illicit bank, earning profits from ransomware operations in cryptocurrency, exchanging the cryptocurrency for dirty drug money, with parties ending up with usable currency to reintroduce back in the market.
Read More: Euronews, UK National Crime Agency
Europe
Europe to set up €500bn defense fund
EU countries are discussing a €500bn joint fund for common defense projects and arms procurement, tapping bond markets to boost spending.
Our Take: The EU has been struggling with how to encourage more investment in member states' defense programs and to increase military assistance to Ukraine. The proposed fund would be voluntary, avoiding opposition from some EU members to using common funds for military purposes. Non-EU countries would be eligible to participate. The EU is leveraging its budget to finance new programs for common defense buying, with €300 million just approved to fund five joint defense procurement projects by member states. The EU is planning to enable member states to buy at least 40% of their defense equipment through the joint procurement mechanism by 2030, benefiting from economies of scale, better interoperability between EU armed forces and larger contracts.
Read More: Financial Times [paywall], Defense News, Atlantic Council
Middle East
Syrian rebels gain further ground
Syrian insurgents captured the Syrian city of Hama, a second major blow to President Assad's hold over the country.
Our Take: The capture of Hama leaves only one major city, Homs, in government hands on the road between the rebel-held north and the capital of Damascus. External analysts now say that if the rebels keep up this pace, taking Homs in the next several days, the Assad regime – which has held on to the fractious country since the uprising and civil war following the Arab Spring in 2012 – could realistically be at risk of collapse. While Russia and Iran are scrambling to assist Damascus, both countries are stretched thin – Iran with its heightened regional proxy war, and Russia with its invasion of Ukraine. Further rebel gains may also precipitate a full US withdrawal from the country (the US still maintains an on-the-ground counterterrorism force), and give Israel fuller license to strike targets in Syria – not to mention potential migrant outflows into the already fragile region.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Axios, Le Monde
Americas
EU-Mercosur trade deal nears finish line
European Commission President von der Leyen arrived in Uruguay yesterday to begin the final stages of negotiations for a major trade deal between the EU and the South American trade bloc Mercosur.
Our Take: The deal, years in the making, would create a transatlantic trade market of some 700 million people. However, there are intense objections from within both blocs: France, for example, with a politically powerful farming community, does not want to compete with South American agricultural exports, and Argentina, under populist president Javier Milei, has expressed distrust of large multilateral agreements in general (and threatened to withdraw from Mercosur entirely last month). Germany, on the other hand, is a proponent of measures that would ease the sale of German cars in the Mercosur bloc. While von der Leyen can agree to a deal on behalf of the entire EU this week, it could flounder as several member states fail to ratify. The current draft text has been mired in disputes since its announcement in 2019.
Read More: Associated Press, Barron's, Financial Times [paywall]
Asia-Pacific
Japan strengthens Philippines' naval defense with funding and equipment support
Japan will supply defense equipment to the Philippine Navy under a new cooperation framework, supporting Manila amid its territorial disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea.
Our Take: Japan's growing role in regional security is highlighted through its Official Security Assistance program, which more than doubled its funding for the Philippines this year. By boosting Manila's maritime surveillance and defense capabilities, Tokyo demonstrates its commitment to promoting stability and addressing coercive actions in contested waters. The agreement reflects the deepening strategic alignment among US allies in the Indo-Pacific as they face shared security concerns, particularly China's assertiveness in the South China Sea. While this partnership enhances deterrence, it risks escalating regional tensions, emphasizing the importance of careful diplomatic efforts to maintain balance.
Read More: NHK, CNA, Responsible Statecraft
Trade and Compliance
Ukraine sanctions Georgian oligarch Ivanishvili and other officials amid pro-EU protests
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced sanctions against former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, top officials, and 19 individuals, amid rising tensions over Georgia's alleged authoritarian and pro-Russian policies.
Our Take: Ukraine's sanctions against Georgian officials reflect broader geopolitical tensions in the region, with Kyiv seeking to rally international support against perceived Russian influence. The move comes as Georgia faces domestic unrest, with anti-government protests highlighting discontent over delayed EU accession talks and authoritarian tendencies. The sanctions, which target influential figures like Ivanishvili, underline Ukraine's effort to pressure its allies to act decisively in countering Moscow's influence. This move could further isolate Georgia's government internationally while intensifying scrutiny over its democratic trajectory and regional alliances.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], The Kyiv Independent, President of Ukraine
Disruptive Technology
FCC proposes cybersecurity rules, threatens fines for telecoms over China-linked hacks
US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chair Jessica Rosenworcel proposed requiring telecom providers to annually certify cybersecurity plans, responding to Beijing-linked "Salt Typhoon" hackers targeting US telecoms to steal call data.
Our Take: The FCC's proposal marks a significant shift towards greater regulation of the telecom sector to address escalating cyber threats, such as the recent Salt Typhoon attack that exposed vulnerabilities in critical telecommunications infrastructure and raised significant national security concerns. By leveraging its authority under federal law, the FCC aims to ensure critical infrastructure is protected against foreign state-sponsored attacks. If adopted, this approach serves to further establish a precedent for holding companies accountable for cybersecurity lapses while reinforcing national security. The proposed measures also highlight the increasing overlap between regulatory frameworks and emerging cyber risks.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], Washington Post [paywall], US Federal Communications Commission
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