Overall Reactions.
Casual observers will be quick to attribute these judicial election results to the effect of Donald Trump on down-ballot races. And they are right—this election was unlike anything seen in Texas for Republicans. Trump's presence atop the Republican presidential ticket was one reason for that.
But the seeds of this judicial turnover were planted in the waning days of the Obama administration and germinated after the 2018 midterm elections, when it was Democrats who swept the Texas appellate races. At the same time, the Texas legislature had moved to abolish straight ticket voting (implemented in 2020), making it more difficult for down-ballot candidates to ride the coattails of successful top-line tickets. Democrats said at the time this would hurt them in blue urban areas. In 2024, we saw that happen.
Take Harris County (Houston) as the prime example:
- There were a total of 1,548,293 votes cast in the county for President.
- Contested District Judge races averaged around 1.45 million. That's around 100,000 votes difference, in races that were ultimately decided by an average of 14,988 votes. The closest race was decided by just 1,251 votes (Landrum over Perdue).
- Harris/Walz carried the county by 51.82% to 46.51%.
- Yet we had Republican flips at the District Court, and a healthy portion of Republican votes from Harris County contributing to victories at the First and Fourteenth Court of Appeals.
This is not to say that the absence of straight ticket voting is the sole cause of the 2024 Red Wave in Texas. Far from it. Shifting voter demographics, Democrat job performance in the state (or, in many cases as to the judiciary, "perceived performance"), strong campaigning, and targeted PAC money all contributed to Republican down-ballot success. And, of course, Donald Trump.
Maintaining Momentum
It is too early to say that it is impossible for Republicans to maintain this momentum into the 2026 midterms. But it would be improbable. Midterm backlash against the governing party is a historically measurable fact. The 2026 midterm title card also won't feature Trump and Cruz, but instead Abbott and Cornyn. Turnout will be lower.
At least at the District Court level, Republicans will still have the advantage in 2026 of running against incumbent Democrats (rather than defending incumbent positions associated with the governing party in Washington). This allows Republicans and their PACs to continue a challenger strategy, which should fare better in this particular midterm than others.
Target Rich Environment
As discussed in this Report, there are several important counties which Trump flipped red in 2024 and made 10+ point gains over 2020, yet Democrat incumbent judges ran unopposed.
In addition to Harris County (where several District Court races were not contested), we'll discuss measurable gains in Dallas, Bexar, Jefferson, and Webb Counties, and throughout the Rio Grande Valley, and how these present Republican targets in 2026.
Dallas County / Fifth COA
While Kamala Harris overwhelmingly carried Dallas County with 60% of the vote, strong Republican turnout in surrounding Collin, Grayson, Hunt, Kaufman, and Rockwall Counties delivered a surprising Republican sweep of the 8 seats at stake on Dallas's Fifth District Court of Appeals.
The Dallas Court of Appeals' lone Republican, Justice Emily Miskel (appointed by Governor Abbott in 2022), narrowly won her first full six-year term on the court, defeating Dallas County District Judge Tonya Parker. Meanwhile, all four of the Democratic incumbent justices up for reelection this cycle (each having been first elected in 2018) were defeated in their reelection bids.
- Justice Ken Molberg lost his seat to former Dallas County District Judge Mike Lee (50.9% to 49.1%).
- Justice Erin Nowell lost to Dallas criminal defense and family law attorney Cynthia Barbare (50.5% to 49.5%).
- Justice Robbie Partida-Kipness was defeated by Dallas business and bankruptcy law attorney Jessica Lewis (51.5% to 48.5%).
- Justice Amanda Reichek suffered the narrowest defeat of the four, losing reelection to Dallas family law specialist Earl Jackson by less than 7,000 votes (50.2% to 49.8%).
Republicans also picked up all three of the open seats on the court. Having previously defeated incumbent Justice Cory Carlyle in a surprise primary result, former Dallas County Family District Judge Kim Cooks lost her general election bid to board-certified appellate lawyer Gino Rossini.
In the smallest margin of victory of all the Dallas appellate races, Dallas County Criminal District Judge Tina Clinton lost to Dallas litigator Matthew Kolodoski by roughly 1,500 votes (incumbent Justice Bill Pedersen chose not to seek reelection for this seat). Finally, the open Chief Justice position, which is largely an administrative role on the Dallas County of Appeals, was claimed by former Dallas County Commissioner and current Dallas Criminal District Judge J.J. Koch, who defeated current Dallas County District Judge Staci Williams.
Within Dallas County itself, Democrats continued to cruise to easy victories. Incumbent Judge Eric Moye easily defeated challenger Leah Feldhendler to win reelection to the 14th Judicial District Court. Meanwhile, Democratic challenger Kim Bailey defeated the Republican incumbent, Judge Ashley Wysocki, on the 162nd Judicial District Court (Judge Wysocki had previously been appointed by Governor Abbott to fill an unexpired term on that court).
Incumbent District Judges Tonya Parker and Staci Williams will also retain their seats on the 116th and 101st Judicial District Courts, respectively, having lost their bids for the Dallas Court of Appeals.
Harris County / First & Fourteenth COAs
Ten of the eighteen seats in the First and Fourteenth Courts of Appeals were up for election this year.
Out of the five seats up for election on the First Court of Appeals, all five were won by Republican candidates, including the three against Democratic incumbents.
- Andrew Johnson, Vice Chair of Appellate Litigation at Thompson Coe, unseated incumbent Justice Sarah Beth Landau (52.9% to 47.1%).
- Career prosecutor Clint Morgan defeated incumbent Justice Julie Countiss (52.6% to 47.4%).
- Judge Kristin Guiney (Presiding Judge of the 183rd Criminal District Court in Harris County) won against incumbent Justice Richard Hightower (52.9% to 47.1%).
- Former Justice Jennifer Caughey won her open seat contest against civil practitioner Brendetta Scott (53.3% to 46.7%).
- Susanna Dokupil, Special Counsel for the Office of Attorney General, beat Amber Boyd-Cora for an open position (52.8% to 47.2%).
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