2025 Legislature
In the upcoming 2025 session, control of the Minnesota House may end in a 67-67 tie. The Democrats retain the Senate Majority of 34 – 33 by winning the one open seat up that was up for election. The Executive branch will remain the same with Governor Walz returning to Minnesota to finish out his final two years of his four year term. The new make up of the legislature comes with a new set of challenges as the Republicans and Democrats learn to navigate shared leadership for the first time in 46 years.
There is a chance that Republicans could gain outright control of the House through recounts, although it's quite rare for recounts to alter election outcomes. According to Minnesota Statute 204C.35, state legislative races must be recounted if the vote difference is less than 0.5%. Recently, two races concluded inside of that margin. In District 14B, DFLer Dan Wolgamott secured his seat by a mere 0.14%, translating to just 28 votes. Similarly, DFLer Brad Tabke narrowly defeated challenger Aaron Paul by 0.06%, or 13 votes, out of nearly 22,000 cast. If either of these results changes during a recount, Republicans could take sole control of the House.
Analysis of Minnesota Election
The 94th session of the Minnesota State Legislature will feature razor-thin majorities in each caucus, with a one-vote majority in the Senate and a tie in the House, leaving no room for defections. We don't foresee many, if any, cross-party alliances. While there may be attempts to persuade moderates to switch parties, such efforts are unlikely to succeed. Based on past experiences, it seems both caucuses will remain firmly aligned with their respective parties over the next two years.
After two years of Democratic control, many legislators are stepping into a landscape they've never experienced with split-party governance. House Republicans will need to carve out their leadership role in this newly balanced legislature. Lessons from the tied legislature of 1979 may provide some insights here. Early indicators of how smoothly things will proceed will be seen in pre-filed bills, the governing structure of the House, assignment of committee chairs, and conversations around the budget forecast set to be released in November.
This legislative session, the legislature is tasked with passing a two-year budget. The Governor's administration will present new budget recommendations in January, and the legislature will have until the end of session to pass a budget. The state's new fiscal year begins July 1, 2025.
Upcoming Minnesota Session
Start Date: Jan. 14, 2025
End Date: May 19, 2025
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