EU Solar Market Outlook 2025–2030: Takeaways For Türkiye

We recently reviewed the "EU Solar Market Outlook 2025–2030" report. The central message is clear: solar is still winning, but the easy phase is over. Europe is not slowing down because solar has become unattractive or because technology costs have risen. The slowdown is happening because the system around solar (grid capacity, storage, market rules, and permitting) has not kept pace with deployment.

For Türkiye, this matters because we are moving in the same direction, just a few years behind. We still have significant growth runway, but Europe is showing where the "speed bumps" will appear as solar penetration increases.

Why Türkiye is not in the same stall yet

In several European markets, solar penetration has reached levels where midday electricity prices can collapse, sometimes even turning negative. Türkiye is expanding quickly, but we are not yet at the same saturation point.

Türkiye also benefits from a demand-growth trajectory. The National Energy Plan anticipates electricity consumption rising materially toward 2030, which helps absorb new capacity. At the same time, solar is already a major part of the Turkish power system: total installed power reached around 121 GW by late 2025, with solar representing roughly 20% of installed capacity. This means Türkiye remains in "build mode," but is now large enough that system issues increasingly influence investment outcomes.

What EU investors are learning and what Turkish investors should learn early

1. The grid is the bottleneck

In Europe, projects are often delayed not because they cannot be built, but because they cannot be connected or because they face curtailment once connected. Türkiye is openly prioritising grid expansion and reinforcement. In practical terms, a "good project" in Türkiye is no longer defined only by land, irradiation, and EPC pricing. It is also defined by:

• realistic substation and connection conditions,
• credible grid reinforcement timelines, and
• a curtailment story that lenders can accept.

2. Storage is no longer optional

Europe's solar future depends on flexibility—primarily batteries, but also demand response and smarter tariff design. As a result, PV + storage hybrids are increasingly becoming the default bankable product in many markets.

Türkiye is also pushing storage strongly through regulatory pathways that encourage storage-linked development. The investment mindset is shifting: if a model assumes "sell solar as produced and you're fine," it is underwriting yesterday's market. Increasingly, the stronger thesis is PV + BESS + a smart commercial structure that protects value.

3. Rooftop/unlicensed remains attractive, but the execution bar is rising

Europe's rooftop market cooled partly because incentive regimes changed. Türkiye's rooftop and unlicensed market is different; the key risk is not "cost," but eligibility and compliance.

Recent regulatory developments signal tighter execution requirements, including clearer priority criteria, tighter deadlines, restrictions affecting transfers/reapplications, and the emergence of aggregation within the framework. In this environment, small technical issues such as consumption linkage, parcel rules, timing, and transfer structuring can undermine an otherwise attractive investment. These points should be treated as core due diligence items, not administrative details.

4. Corporate demand will strengthen as CBAM becomes a real driver

Many Turkish investors still underweight the commercial impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). As CBAM moves into its compliance phase from 1 January 2026, it becomes a more tangible driver for Turkish exporters.

As exporters feel the pressure, demand is likely to strengthen for:

• on-site solar,
• predictable green electricity costs, and
• firmed or shaped supply (often requiring storage, aggregation, or PPAs designed for a better production profile match).

What should investors do differently in Türkiye?

If investing in utility-scale (YEKA / licensed) we recommend asking early:

• What is the real grid picture (not the brochure picture)?
• Where does curtailment risk sit?
• Is the revenue structure future-proof under lower capture prices?

If investing in C&I / unlicensed

We recommend treating this as a compliance-driven investment:

• lock down eligibility and deadlines,
• map "transferability" realistically, and
• consider storage/firming options if targeting premium offtakers.

If investing in storage

We recommend paying close attention to aggregation and portfolio optimisation. With Türkiye's Aggregator Regulation effective from 1 January 2025, the market can evolve from owning single assets to optimising portfolios creating new pathways for scalable value creation.

Europe is teaching one lesson: solar will keep growing, but the money shifts to whoever solves the system problems. In Türkiye, the winning approach for 2026–2030 is likely to centre on projects with credible grid solutions, hybridisation and flexibility, strong offtake structuring (particularly for export-facing corporates), and careful regulatory execution.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.