- Battery electric vehicles are expected to only represent 58% of
UK new light vehicle sales by 2035
18% of new UK light vehicle sales in 2035 are expected to be plug-in hybrids, made up of Plug-in Hybrid - Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Range Extending Electric Vehicles (REEVs)
- Non-plug-in hybrids – Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles (MHEVs) and Full Hybrid Electric Vehicles (FHEVs) – are expected to represent 16% of UK 2035 sales
- 9% of 2035 new UK light vehicle sales are still predicted to consist of vehicles powered solely by an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
LONDON (30 June, 2026) – AlixPartners, the global consulting firm, today published new research from its 23rd annual Global Automotive Outlook, revealing how far the UK is forecast to fall short of the Government's 2035 zero emission vehicle target.
According to the research, only 58% of total new UK light vehicle sales in 2035 are expected to be battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
Meanwhile, 18% of UK new light vehicle sales in 2035 are expected to be plug-in hybrids, made up of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Range Extending Electric Vehicles (REEVs).
Non-plug-in hybrids – Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles (MHEVs) and Full Hybrid Electric Vehicles (FHEVs) – are expected to represent 16% of 2035 UK new light vehicle sales.
9% of 2035 UK new light vehicle sales are still predicted to
consist of vehicles powered solely by an Internal Combustion Engine
(ICE).
Under the Government's current Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV)
mandate, 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans must be fully electric
by 2030, with a 100% zero-emission requirement across all new
vehicles by 2035. A consultation expected imminently is anticipated
to revise the 2030 targets, reducing the zero-emission car target
to between 50% and 70%, although the 2035 100% target is expected
to remain unchanged.
While the Global Automotive Outlook combines cars and vans to create a combined forecast for light vehicle sales, it currently predicts that only 39% of new UK light vehicle sales are expected to be BEVs by 2030.
Meanwhile, 15% of UK new light vehicle sales in 2030 are expected to be plug-in hybrids, made up of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Range Extending Electric Vehicles (REEVs).
Non-plug-in hybrids – Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles (MHEVs) and Full Hybrid Electric Vehicles (FHEVs) – are expected to represent 25% of UK new light vehicle sales in 2030.
A full 22% of 2030 UK new light vehicle sales are still predicted to consist of vehicles powered solely by an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE).
Commenting on these findings, Nick Parker, UK Leader of Automotive & Industrials at AlixPartners, said:
“The Government’s anticipated ZEV consultation is expected to address the 2030 challenge, but our data suggests the real issue extends beyond that. Even on the improved trajectory being proposed, battery electric vehicles are forecast to represent only 58% of sales by 2035 — 42 percentage points short of the Government's 100% zero emission target.
“This raises a fundamental question: is the 2035 endpoint itself realistic? Consumer demand, vehicle costs, and infrastructure constraints are moving slower than the policy timeline assumes.
“Car manufacturers should aim to use this consultation to work with government on realistic scenarios. The consultation must do more than adjust intermediate targets — it needs to test whether the transition itself requires a longer horizon. Getting that right is more important than rushing to meet an unrealistic date.”
The challenge is not uniquely British. AlixPartners' analysis of major European markets shows that most will struggle to meet their 2035 zero emission targets. France is forecast to reach only 56% BEV only sales; Germany 58%; Spain 33%; and Italy 29%.
Commenting on this trend, Andrew Bergbaum, Global Co-Head of the Automotive & Industrial Practice at AlixPartners, added:
“The European gap and differences between each country reflects deeper structural differences in industrial capacity, consumer markets and grid readiness and so signals something more consequential: Europe's automotive transition is unlikely to happen as a unified bloc.
"By 2035, the UK, France and Germany will have fundamentally different market compositions than countries like Spain and Italy. That divergence will reshape supply chains, manufacturing investment, and competitive positioning across the continent. The question is how to manage transition strategies that acknowledge these realities.”