Arnold & Porter Senior International Policy Advisor and former U.S. Ambassador Barbara Leaf (Amb. Leaf) recently appeared on PBS NewsHour, Bloomberg TV, and CNBC to discuss the temporary ceasefire between the U.S and Iran, as well as the ripple effects of the conflict throughout the Middle East.
Amb. Leaf cautioned that the ceasefire amounted to a “fragile truce” and noted that regional partners in the Gulf viewed the arrangement as unstable and at high risk of escalation. She highlighted unresolved issues, including whether or not Lebanon was included in the ceasefire and ongoing military strikes across the region, as key sources of volatility. “Hold tight to giddy optimism,” she said.
Amb. Leaf commented that the success of the ceasefire primarily hinges on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. “Everyone wants the status quo ante,” she said, referring to the recognition of the Strait of Hormuz as a vital passageway of international commerce that should remain open. She also called the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program and removal from Iran of its stockpile of enriched uranium “critical” for judging the long-term success of the military campaign.
While the ceasefire is a sign of progress in ending the conflict, Amb. Leaf pointed out that the agreement plays into Iran’s perception of victory. “The Iranian regime is trumpeting that it essentially defeated the U.S. and Israel” merely by surviving, and, in doing so, weaponizing its hold on the Strait of Hormuz.
She concluded by emphasizing the importance of negotiated outcomes and called for a coordinated, multilateral approach to sustain pressure on Iran and shape a more stable regional order.
Watch the full PBS NewsHour interview.