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Scenario of a Switzerland with 10 million inhabitants – Federal Council report on the popular initiative "No to a Switzerland of 10 million! (Sustainability Initiative)"
The SVP's popular initiative "No to a Switzerland of 10 million! (Sustainability Initiative)" has sparked intense political debate since its launch in 2023. A national vote on the initiative is expected in June 2026.
The popular initiative calls for a rigid cap on population growth, which would deeply interfere with existing international obligations. The Federal Council's report on the scenario of a ten-million-inhabitant Switzerland highlights that while population growth presents challenges, targeted political measures can manage them. The report also clarifies that without sufficient labour migration, societal aging would put pressure on the domestic labour market, social security and healthcare systems.
The initiative would require the Federal Council to take measures to curb population growth once the permanent resident population exceeds certain thresholds. It raises issues that will increasingly occupy the country in the future, sparking debate on topics such as immigration, the economy, infrastructure, the environment, and international law.
Content of the initiative
The initiative proposes amending the Federal Constitution to cap Switzerland's permanent resident population at 10 million by 2050. Currently, Switzerland has around 9.1 million residents and the Federal Statistical Office projects that the population will exceed 10 million in 2040. The initiative mandates that once the population reaches the threshold of 9.5 million, the Confederation must implement measures to curb growth, particularly in immigration and asylum policy. If the population exceeds 10 million, international agreements will come into focus. The Confederation would have to renegotiate or terminate international agreements that the initiators believe promote growth. This could potentially include terminating the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons with the EU. The Federal Council and the National Council both recommend rejecting the initiative, without a counterproposal having been drawn up.
Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons (AFMP) Switzerland-EU
The Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons between Switzerland and the EU, in force since 2002, grants EU/EFTA citizens a Swiss residence permit for gainful employment as an employee or a self-employed person. The right of residence also extends to anyone who can prove sufficient financial means. Under the AFMP, Switzerland may restrict the free movement of persons if certain circumstances arise. The Federal Council recently defined the specific criteria for invoking this so-called safeguard clause. If these predefined thresholds are reached, the Federal Council must examine whether to trigger the safeguard clause. The specific indicators prompting such a review include significant changes in net migration, social assistance rates or the cross-border commuter and unemployment rates in Switzerland.
Federal Council report on the opportunities and challenges of Switzerland's demographic development
In late November 2025, the Federal Council published a report on Switzerland's population growth, prompted by a 2023 postulate that requested an action-oriented analysis of this topic. The report outlines the opportunities and challenges of Switzerland's demographic development should the population reach 10 million. It examines the effects on ten selected policy areas and identifies specific federal measures to address them.
The Federal Council notes that population growth itself presents challenges. The 10-million scenario will increase demand for living and working space, raise public and private transport use, and likely increase energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
A key element of the analysis is societal ageing. Today, for every one hundred people of working age, there are thirty-three of retirement age; by 2055, this ratio will rise to around forty-five. This development will create difficulties in the areas of the labour market, public finances, old-age provision and medical care. The report concludes that population growth through labour migration would therefore have a stabilising effect. The scenario of a 10-million-inhabitant Switzerland is clearly manageable if shaped actively and with foresight.
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