The hosting of the Summer Olympics presents abundant benefits for France. In this article we explore the logistical and security challenges of the event.
- Threat of terrorism persists in France
- Civil unrest remains a disruptive factor
- Crime risk in Paris
- Outlook for the Games
Between 26 July and 11 August, the 2024 Summer Olympics will be held in France, followed by the Paralympics between 28 August to 8 September. Paris will serve as the host city, while events will also be held across 16 other cities of metropolitan France as well as in Tahiti, French Polynesia. According to the Paris Tourist Office, some 11 million people are expected to visit the French capital during the Games. In addition to those attending in person, the event will be broadcasted to billions, underscoring the high-profile nature of the event.
Although the Summer Olympics presents abundant benefits for France, it poses a great deal of logistical and security challenges.
Although the hosting of the Summer Olympics presents abundant benefits for France, it poses a great deal of logistical and security challenges for the organizers. Travel disruption on the city's roads, metro, and principal hubs – like Gare du Nord and Saint-Lazare stations – is highly likely, with these congested areas, among other key sites, also presenting attractive targets for a myriad of actors engaged in terrorism, crime, or civil unrest.
Threat of terrorism persists in France
France officially launched its Olympic bid in June 2015, months after suffering the Île-de-France attacks which saw three gunmen affiliated with al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) kill a total of 17 people in four separate shooting attacks. In the same year, on 13 November 2015, suicide bombers and gunmen killed 131 people and injured 413 more as they targeted an international football match and a packed theatre in the capital.
The November 2015 Paris attack prompted a state of emergency, initially for a 12-day period though subsequently extended, including in response to the July 2016 Bastille Day attack in Nice, that saw a truck driven into revellers, killing 86 and injuring 434 others.
Despite ongoing attacks, the continued state of emergency, and a relative uptick in terrorist attacks in France during 2017 – with nine attacks occurring that year compared to five in 2016 and six the year prior – the Paris bid was confirmed as being successful in September 2017.
French efforts to proactively tackle Islamist extremism since 2015, by introducing counter-radicalization programmes and legislation, appear to have at least reduced the threat posed by relatively complex attacks, such as those involving explosives and military-grade firearms, in recent years. Indeed, French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin told reporters in March that authorities were foiling attacks “almost every month”, which included plots by the same IS-wing that had conducted the attack on the Moscow concert venue that killed over 130 people.
However, the threat posed by extremists persists, with recent attacks consisting mostly of small cells or radicalized individuals conducting more rudimentary plots and attacks, which have proven difficult for intelligence services to disrupt.
As France is home to both the largest Muslim and Jewish communities in Europe, the nation is particularly exposed to tensions arising from the Israel-Hamas conflict. At the time of writing, two attacks in France have so far been linked to the issue: the stabbing to death of a teacher in Arras; and a knife and hammer attack launched close to Paris' Eiffel Tower, that killed a German-Filipino tourist. Amid this elevated threat, the Games' profile as an aspirational target was highlighted in late May, when a Chechen national suspected of plotting an 'Islamist-inspired' attack targeting Olympic football matches in Saint-Etienne was arrested.
While the French authorities have previously hosted mega-events such as the 2016 UEFA European Championship finals without incident, the Paris Games will ambitiously see its opening ceremony staged along the banks of the Seine allowing some 600,000 to attend, increasing the burden on those policing the event and the opportunities for an attack to unfold.
In addition to the threat of attacks, disruption due to security alerts is also a real possibility. It is worth noting that a sharp uptick in hoax bomb threats – impacting numerous airports, schools, and prominent sites such as the Palace of Versailles and the Louvre – coincided with the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict, and further similar incidents are a possibility, especially as the French authorities will maintain a heightened state of alert during the Games.
Civil unrest remains a disruptive factor
During 2023, France experienced several serious bouts of unrest that demonstrate the continued potential for protests to manifest in the country over a host of issues. Notably, on 19 January, over one million people took part in protests and strikes over reforms intended to increase the country's retirement age, kicking off a protest movement that gained national traction and resulted in significant disruption owing to the participation of labour unions, with strikes affecting public transport and air travel.
Anti-pension reform protesters have threatened to undermine the hosting of the Olympics, as demonstrated by the emergence of the slogan “no withdrawal, no Olympics” on social media and the brief occupation of the Paris Olympic Games headquarters staged by protesters in June 2023.
Members of striking unions also cut power to the Olympic Village and the Stade de France, disrupting ongoing site preparations. The CGT labor union has been seen as the driving force behind the protests and has threatened strikes during the Games, chiefly over lack of financial compensation and lost benefits for public-sector workers crucial to its hosting. Although no specific dates have been issued, the union issued a strike notice covering the period up until 15 September.
The cost of hosting and attending the Games has brought to the fore underlying socio-economic divisions within Paris. Some concerns have focussed on inflated ticket, public transport, and accommodation prices. While activists and residents have aired concerns that Saint-Denis – a northern Paris suburb reputed to be mainland France's poorest area – where the Olympic Village along with the Stade de France, and Aquatics Centre are located, will be affected by gentrification following the Games.
In addition to domestic issues, geopolitical developments have the potential to drive unrest. In May, over 300 Palestinian supporters attended a demonstration at the headquarters of the Paris Organizing Committee in Saint-Denis, chanting slogans against Israel's 'institutional participation' in the Games because of the war in Gaza.
The rioting was particularly unruly over the first five nights and widely described as being unprecedented in its scale and intensity.
Certainly, Paris' poorer and most marginalized communities will be most prone to significant unrest in cases where controversial incidents have exposed societal schisms. Notably, the killing of 17-year-old French-Algerian Nahel Merzouk in June 2023 by traffic police in Nanterre, in the western suburbs of Paris, sparked riots in French cities, including in the capital. The rioting was particularly unruly over the first five nights and widely described as being unprecedented in its scale and intensity. An estimated 269 police stations were attacked, 700 security forces personnel were injured, as well as 5,800 cars set alight, many commercial businesses looted, and over 1,000 public buildings vandalized or damaged, including the under-construction Aquatics Centre which was lightly damaged as a result of buses being set alight at a depot in its proximity. While the most serious unrest had abated by 4 July 2023, the rioting nonetheless underscored the existence of deep divisions within French society, which can quickly spiral into mass unrest. The make-up of these communities will highly likely result in them being sensitive to political discourse and developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Societal divisions will be particularly exposed in the run-up to and during the upcoming 30 June and 7 July elections. Launched by president Macron in response to the overwhelming victory the far-right National Rally (RN) party achieved in the EU elections on the back of anti-immigration rhetoric and an anti-crime stance, that found significant favour in rural France. RN are expected to win the first round, which could trigger unrest akin to that seen following its success in the EU elections. Furthermore, developments including RN gaining a majority in the second round, or an incident that further exacerbates tensions within the increasingly polarised political landscape – such as police brutality against ethnic minorities, or violence committed by Islamist extremists - could prove incendiary.
Crime risk in Paris
As with any major European city, especially those that attract a large number of visitors, opportunistic street-level crime poses a persistent risk in Paris, especially in less affluent areas and those that are popular tourists. Although levels of security will be heightened during the Games, large crowds of visitors will most definitely be subject to attempts by petty criminals, while more serious and confrontational crimes will remain a possibility in more isolated areas and after dark.
Outlook for the Games
French officials have publicly stated that securing the Games poses a challenge. Some 45,000 police and Gendarmes are expected to be deployed for the duration of the Games, in addition to at least 17,000 private security staff and stewards. Cordons are set to be put in place around Olympic venues, for which residents will need a 'valid reason' to pass, in addition to registering any visitors. Strict controls on freedom of movement proposed will also extend to vehicle traffic, while metro stops assessed as being vulnerable to attacks will also be closed.
Although the security plan is comprehensive and French security forces are extremely capable, concerns remain. The decision to stage the opening ceremony along the river Seine – allowing some 600,000 visitors to take in a procession of 160 boats along a 6km route – is a particularly contentious issue. This plan has come under recurring scrutiny and although organizers and ministers have been resolute in insisting the plan will go ahead, in April, President Emmanuel Macron reiterated that the ceremony could move should the security situation dictate it.
At the time of writing, protests and strikes organized by unions over strains placed on their workers supporting the Olympics represents the most likely risk of unrest and disruption facing the event, with the touted participation of public-sector police and transport workers presenting a potential direct risk to its staging.
It is also possible that protests driven by underlying societal tensions could also erupt in the run-up to or even during the Games, especially considering recent political developments and the upcoming elections. Indeed, it is unlikely that the concentration of Olympic venues in poorer French suburbs has acted mend these tensions. It is also possible that the implementation of security measures, threat of gentrification, and overall sense that the Olympics is an event for those with money, will only highlight and further widen divisions within French society. As the protests in response to Nahel Merzouk's killing illustrated, tensions in Paris can explode in response to certain triggers. Should a similar unforeseen development transpire during the Games, intense protests could follow that security forces would be challenged to contain, whilst simultaneously dealing with the threats posed by crime and terrorism.
Moreover, major international developments or events perceived as being anti-Islam have the potential to elevate the risk of unrest impacting or targeting the Games, along with increasing the risk of a terrorist attack. While the French security forces have proven adept at foiling many large-scale attacks, smaller less-sophisticated terror plots, initiated by individuals with little planning, remain a credible threat to publicly accessible areas, including those away from Olympic-managed venues.
The French authorities will likely succeed in ensuring the overall security of the Games, however, those attending or otherwise supporting the event should remain aware of the potential threats and how they can be influenced by a host of internal and external factors.
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