Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on September 30, 2021.

Each week, we'll be updating this blog post with our predictions of the probability that leave will be granted for each application. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

We'll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch - These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders - These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders - These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots - These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

THIS WEEK'S CASES

There are 16 leave application decisions coming out on September 30, 2021. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 16 cases in which we'll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

Possible Contenders

Red Chris Development Company Ltd v United Steel, Paper and Forestry, Rubber, Manufacturing, Energy, Allied Industrial and Service Workers International Union, Local 1-1937, et al. (B.C.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39668)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 24% chance of getting leave.

Unifor Canada Local 594 v Consumers' Co-Operative Refineries Limited (Sask.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39651)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 20% chance of getting leave.

Tianyun Xu also known as Terence Xu v Yuenyuen Hu also known as Betty Hu, et al. (B.C.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39621)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.

Canada Investment Corporation v Stanbarr Services Limited, et al. (Ont.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39671)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 8% chance of getting leave.

Ferme Alsace Holstein S.E.N.C. c Cimentier Steve Dumas inc. (Qc) (Civile) (Autorisation) (39640)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Travelway Group International Inc. v Group III International Ltd., et al. (F.C.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39576)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Unlikely Contenders

Allan Winfield Potter v Her Majesty the Queen (N.L.) (Criminal) (By Leave) (39646)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Joseph Wilfrid Frigon v Her Majesty the Queen (B.C.) (Criminal) (By Leave) (39535)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Nicola Valley Fish and Game Club, et al. v Douglas Lake Cattle Company, et al. (B.C.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39628)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Agent E v Attorney General of Canada (in right of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police) (B.C.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39652)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Zulfiqar Ali v Her Majesty the Queen (Ont.) (Criminal) (By Leave) (39730)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

Long-Shots

Honorable Gérard Dugré c Procureur général du Canada (C.F.) (Civile) (Autorisation) (39614)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Honorable Gérard Dugré c Procureur général du Canada (C.F.) (Civile) (Autorisation) (39636)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Carey Isaac Regis c Sa Majesté la Reine (Qc) (Criminelle) (Autorisation) (39658)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Wen Xue Wang also known as Wenxue Wang, et al. v Laura W. Zhao Personal Real Estate Corporation, et al. (B.C.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39653)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

S...P... c Sa Majesté la Reine (Qc) (Criminelle) (Autorisation) (39686)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.