Mejdani has accepted the resignation of interim Prime Minister Bashkim Fino and asked SP chairman Fatos Nano to form a new government. This will be overwhelmingly SP-dominated: the SP and its political allies won 118 seats in the 155-member parliament, while the DP won only 24.
Political implications
Political uncertainty caused by the collapse of law and order in Albania earlier in 1997 has eased since the elections, and Berisha's long-delayed departure removes another major source of political tensions. The new government will have a clear mandate to try to return the country to normality and, with a two-thirds parliamentary majority, the SP and its allies can push through vital legislation. The fact that an outburst of violence surrounding the elections failed to materialise (as had been feared) is also encouraging. Meanwhile the international community will continue its efforts to support stability by economic means.
Nevertheless, the political situation remains potentially volatile. Even without interference from Berisha, the new government faces considerable challenges. Chief among them are:
- the re-establishment of central government control over the country. The chaos of early 1997, sparked off by the collapse of several pyramid investment schemes, allowed criminal gangs to consolidate their control over territory and smuggling operations. The central authorities will find it extremely difficult to regain control over areas now held by criminal warlords, notably in the south, and in rural areas nationwide. In addition, the presence of up to 1m looted arms in the hands of civilians and criminals is a potential destabilising factor;
- the future of the remaining investment schemes. Further collapses would prompt renewed protests. The government will find it difficult to re-establish confidence in the economy in the wake of the unrest. In the longer term, the approach of winter later in 1997 will prompt fears of economic hardship and possibly social unrest. The government will have to secure the help of international lending institutions, which will in turn depend on its ability to disarm the population and contain the threat posed by criminals; and
- Berisha's role. Throughout the crisis of early 1997 Berisha appeared determined to retain some political power. Even as an opposition MP, Berisha will be an irritant to the government, and he may regain some popularity once the new government's initial 'honeymoon period' in office ends.
Security situation remains adverse
Meanwhile, the security situation remains hazardous throughout the country, including in the capital Tirana. A bomb explosion on central Tirana's main Martyrs of the Nation Boulevard badly damaged two cafes on 22 July, injuring three people. The blast took place near the defence and interior ministries, and wrecked the cafes' gambling machines and video sales areas. It follows three bombings at Tirana cafes in early June, which injured at least 27 people.
It is unclear whether the 22 July incident was criminally or politically motivated, or - like the early June incidents - a combination of the two. Whatever the motive behind the attack, the incident highlights the continuing risk of violence. More than 1,500 people have been killed in the unrest since January (mainly through accidental shootings, but also through criminal violence), particularly in southern Albania, where criminal warlords are in de facto control of many towns and cities.
In addition, shooting that erupted at a royalist rally in central Tirana on 3 July illustrates the continued risk of sporadic politically-motivated violence in the wake of the elections. One person was killed in the incident, and royalists have pledged further rallies in protest at perceived electoral fraud in a referendum on the restoration of the monarchy.
Security outlook and implications for foreigners
The new government will be unable to reduce the level of violence and criminal activity significantly in the short term. Non-essential operations and travel to Albania remain inadvisable for the foreseeable future, though the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has resumed its operations. Moreover, there is a continued threat of renewed violence, especially if winter sparks off social discontent. Foreign companies that deem it essential to return to Albania should have contingency plans and security measures in place, and be prepared to evacuate personnel if the situation deteriorates.
In addition, the dire state of the economy and considerable operational obstacles will continue to hamper foreign investment for the foreseeable future.
TRAVEL UPDATE
Curfew lifted
A dusk-to-dawn curfew that has been in force since February was lifted on 24 July as the newly-elected parliament met for the first time.
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