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The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has proposed significant changes to how H-1B visa registrations are selected in the annual cap lottery. This proposed rule would replace the current random selection process with a weighted selection system that favors higher-wage positions, prioritizing what officials describe as the "best and brightest."
Historically, a total of 85,000 new H-1B visas is available each fiscal year, with demand consistently outpacing supply by a wide margin. To address this imbalance, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) implemented the current H-1B cap lottery registration system whereby unique beneficiaries with properly submitted electronic registrations are selected at random. Each registration is entered once in the lottery. The proposed rule would amend the selection process to move from a purely random selection process to a weighted selection process.
Overview of the Proposed Changes
New Registration Requirements: Under the proposal, when submitting the H-1B cap registration, employers would be required to include information about the prevailing wage rate for the offered role in the area of employment, specifically reporting the highest Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) wage level that the employer generally meets or exceeds.
Weighted Selection Process: H-1B lottery registrations would be weighted based on the wage level of the offered H-1B position, meaning that some registrations would have a much higher likelihood of being selected in the lottery. Wage levels would be weighted as follows:
- Wage Level 4 registrations would be entered four times.
- Wage Level 3 registrations would be entered three times.
- Wage Level 2 registrations would be entered twice.
- Wage Level 1 registrations would be entered once.
Post-Selection Requirements: After being selected in the lottery, an H-1B petition must be filed with USCIS on behalf of the registrant. To avoid manipulation, the proposed rule requires that the H-1B petition information matches the registration details. H-1B petitions must also include evidence supporting the wage level selected at registration and maintain the same wage level or higher as indicated at registration. USCIS will be able to deny or revoke petitions if registration information changes or if it determines an employer attempted to manipulate wage levels to boost selection odds.
Projected Impact
The proposed rule is a significant departure from the current H-1B lottery process, benefiting employees with positions that require higher skill levels and offer higher wages. Based on these changes, DHS estimates the rule will have the following impact:
- 48 percent decrease in probability of Level 1 wage registrations being selected
- 3 percent increase in probability of Level 2 registrations being selected
- 55 percent increase in probability of Level 3 registrations being selected
- 107 percent increase in probability of Level 4 registrations being selected
The public comment period opened on Sept. 24, 2025, and will continue for 30 days. If finalized, implementation would likely apply to the fiscal year (FY) 2027 H-1B cap season beginning March 2026.
How Employers Can Prepare
The proposed rule may significantly change the likelihood of selection for certain employees and roles. Employers can assess the potential impact of the rule by reviewing wage levels for potential H-1B positions by:
- considering wage adjustments where possible to improve odds of selection, especially for positions currently at Level 1
- considering alternative visa categories for positions that may face reduced selection probability under the new system
- preparing additional documentation to substantiate wage levels at registration
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
