P2N0 - Edition 40 - News And Views On The Drive Towards Net-Zero GHG Emissions

Article Insights

SUMMARY OF JANUARY 1 TO DECEMBER 31, 2025

Key themes arising during calendar year 2025:

• For the author, the following are key themes arising during calendar year 2025:
  • GHG emissions: The rate of avoidance, reduction, and removal (ARR) of GHG emissions is not fast enough to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement¹ If there is to be any prospect of staying within reach of those objectives, the rate of ARR needs to The best way to achieve this is through the increased deployment of renewable electrical and nuclear energy.
  • Age of electricity: The age of electricity is upon Demand for electrical energy is increasing as countries continue to electrify activities, as populations increase and urbanise, and as demand for electrical energy increases because of the deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) and the resulting need for computer capacity and data storage.
  • Age of Generative AI: The development of data centres globally in response to the ever-increasing rate and scale of AI has exceeded the expectations of many. Data centres require electrical energy and water for power and for The available supply of both electrical energy and water is the only thing placing a break on the development of data centres and the deployment of Generative AI.
  • Natural Gas and LNG here to stay: As the implications of the conflict in Ukraine on energy affordability and security became clear, both affordability and security have resulted in the acceptance that natural gas and LNG are long term sources of fuel and
  • Critical metals and minerals: While folk have long been aware of the importance of critical materials, metals, and minerals (CM3) ² and rare earth elements (REEs) ³, during 2025 this awareness increased as we were snowed with news of export controls, CM3, REE security, supply chain strategies, government funding and bloc and country partnerships. The IEA has taken a lead to explain who has what, and who needs what. There is a central role for governments to play.
  • Government Funding Support - a constant need: The role of government in decarbonization is core to the deployment of technologies to achieve ARR of GHG emissions. This includes continued funding for renewable electrical energy, carbon capture and storage, and hydrogen (in that order).

  During 2025, the role of Government has expanded to include support for the development of new mines to extract and to produce CM3 and REEs. It is likely that Governments will continue to align to address the need for the development of reliable CM3 and REE supply chains.

  • Hydrocarbons: The global economy continues to rely on hydrocarbons. However strong the desire and determination to "transition away from fossil fuels" (now called "the UAE consensus"), it is going to take time. This is not a question of fault! It is what it is! As the author has noted on more than one occasion, the challenge of addressing climate change is best described as an "ever- changing 8.3-billion-piece three-dimensional jigsaw puzzle", with one piece for each of us.
  • The energy trilemma: Over the last 18 months or so, the energy trilemma has been defined by reality. The backbone of decarbonisation to address climate change is affordability, with the imperative of energy security, with the medium-term objective of sustainability. While affordability has different meanings in different countries and contexts, what is clear is that certain means of decarbonization are not progressing at the rate anticipated in some countries, including offshore wind and green This said, China and the EU continue to implement policy settings across all forms of decarbonization technology.

As we move into 2026, it is expected that these themes will continue to shape the progress to net zero. Month-by-month reflection on key news items:

What follows is a month-by-month summary of key news items covered by P2N0 during calendar year 2025. As always, this reflects the views of one person (the author), and as such is not intended to be either exclusive or exhaustive.

During January 2025, the following news items were covered in Editions 23 and 24 of P2N0:

• On January 6, 2025, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) published A Just Energy Transition for Communities – Large Scale Wind Solar and Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. The publication was timely and insightful. For those not familiar with the facts and statistics, between 600 and 700 million people globally do not benefit from the supply of electrical energy, with over 80% of those people living in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• On January 10, 2025, The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record: "We saw extraordinary land and sea surface temperatures, extraordinary ocean heat, accompanied by very extreme weather affecting many countries around the world ... ".
• On January 20, 2025, the US gave notice of its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Towards the end of the first full week of 2026, the US announced its withdrawal from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• On January 21, 2025, electrek (at https://electrek.co, under China installed a record capacity solar and wind in 2024 – in numbers) reported that China had installed 14.6% of new renewable electrical energy (REE) capacity during 2024.

2024 REE
Increase of 277 GW of photovoltaic solar during 2024, to 887 GW	Increase of 80 GW of wind during 2024 to 521 GW	Increase of 13.5 GW of hydroelectric to 436 GW

• From January 20 to January 24, 2025, world leaders from political and business sectors, attended the 55th World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland⁴ The publication United for Net Zero – Public- Private Collaboration to Accelerate Industry Decarbonization provided a sense of that alignment was recognized as The publication recognized that:

The numbers are clear
GHG emissions are increasing at a rate of 1.5% annually.	GHG emissions need to be declining at a rate of 7% annually.	If this continues, the 1.5OC target will be exceeded by 600 GT by 2050.

• On January 30, 2025, BloombergNEF published Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025. The headlines were that during 2024, investment in energy transition exceeded USD 2 trillion, with China investing around USD 820 billion, i.e., China invested more than the EU, UK, and US combined.
• On January 31, 2025, the Danish Energy Minister announced that the Danish Government was to provide USD 1 billion in funding to Energinet to allow the development of an 85 km hydrogen pipeline between Esbjerg (a port city in Denmark) and Germany.
• During mid-January, the GCC states indicated their dash:
  • For BESS: Emirates Water and Electricity Company (EWEC) and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) plan to develop a 5.2 GW / 19 GWh BESS, with 1 GW of baseload renewable electrical energy as a result. The Biggest BESS will source electrical energy from photovoltaic solar capacity, with an estimated development cost of USD 6 billion.

During January 2025, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) energised its 2.5 GWh Bisha BESS, with a further eight Big BESS projects to be developed over the coming year, to deploy a further 33 GWh of energy storage capacity; and

• For gas: In addition to the development of renewable energy capacity (photovoltaic solar and wind, and BESS) the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are developing 30 GW of gas-fired turbine capacity;

• The State of Play in H2: In January, 2025, Hydrogen Europe published A Clean Industrial Deal for the European hydrogen industry. The publication provided a realistic assessment of the challenges with the development of the renewable hydrogen industry across Europe. China and the EU remain the most invested in the development of their hydrogen

The publication is best read with the EC Clean Technology Observatory's Renewable Fuels of Non- Biological Origin in the European Union – Status Report on Technology Development, Trends Value Chains and Markets. The publication provides a "warts and all" assessment of the development of the RFNBO market (supply and demand).

During February 2025, the following received considerable coverage reflected in the news items covered in Editions 25 and 26 of P2N0:

• On February 6, 2025, BloombergNEF published its Levelized Cost 5 of Electricity Update. On an average basis, the generation cost of photovoltaic solar (PV solar) was USD 36 / MWh and USD 38 / MWh⁶ The costs of photovoltaic solar (PV solar) and battery energy storage system (BESS) continue to fall: from the theoretical thinking of 15 years ago of USD 1 a watt in 2010, we are progressing towards a generation cost approaching USD 01 a KWh or 1 cent a KWh, which has been achieved in some parts of the world. This emphasises that renewable electrical energy is the foundation on which progress to net-zero has been built.
• On February 10, 2025, BYD announced that it had signed a contract with the Saudi Electrical Company (SEC) to supply 12.5GWh of BESS capacity. BYD has signed six BESS supply contracts with SEC. The first of the BESSs, the 5 GWh Bisha BESS, commenced operation in January 2025 (as report above).
• On February 11, 2025, the Ecologic Institute published Integrating Hydrogen Emissions Into the EU Policy Framework.The basis for the publication is that "Hydrogen (H2) is an indirect greenhouse gas (GHG)"⁷:

... H2 emissions contribute to climate change. While hydrogen is not a direct greenhouse gas (GHG),

it reacts with atmospheric [compounds], increasing levels of other GHG emissions". This has long been known, but to have it up in lights is a good thing.

• On February 12, 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published India Gas Market Report Outlook to 2030. The headline from the publication is that India's natural gas demand is set for a 60% rise by 2030, supported by upcoming global LNG supply wave. For those active in the natural gas and LNG markets, this was not "new news".
• On February 14, 2025, the IEA published Electricity 2025, Analysis and forecast to 2027 (Electricity 2025). One of the established themes of progress to net zero is the electrification of activities requiring energy or heat, or both – the so-called new Age of The IEA publication starts by recognising this: "Strong growth in electricity demand is raising the curtain on a new Age of Electricity, with consumption set to soar through 2027"⁸
• On February 18, 2025, TotalEnergies announced that it had signed agreements with Air Liquide to develop two projects, to produce 45,000 metric tonnes of green hydrogen a year using renewable electrical energy sourced (for the most part) from the OranjeWind offshore wind field developed by TotalEnergies and RWE (under a 50/50 joint venture).

During July 2025, Air Liquide took a positive final investment decision to develop its 200 MW green hydrogen production facility in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. TotalEnergies will provide renewable electrical energy from its OranjeWind offshore wind field to the Air Liquide facility, which will produce green hydrogen to displace the use of grey hydrogen at the TotalEnergies refinery in Rotterdam. This may be regarded as a blueprint for the matching of supply and demand for green hydrogen.

• On February 26, 2025, the European Commission (EC) adopted Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and the Council amending Regulation (EU) 2023 / 956 as regards simplifying and strengthening the cross-border adjustment mechanism. Among other things, it proposed that the obligation to acquire CBAM Certificates would commence in 2027, rather than 2026, with an increased threshold to acquire CBAM Certificates such that entities importing less than 50 metric tonnes of covered goods are exempt.
• On February 26, 2025, the EC published the Clean Industrial Deal⁹Areas identified for progress with new and revised policy settings included the following:

1. Access to affordable energy, including lowering energy bills, accelerating the roll-out of clean energy and electrification, and ensuring well-functioning gas markets;
2. Boosting clean supply and demand, including the introduction of new measures to ensure development of supply and demand in tandem;
3. Boosting public and private investment, including scaling up support for the Innovation Fund and the establishment of an Industrial Decarbonisation Bank to provide up to € 100 billion of funding ("based on funds in the Innovation Fund from parts of the ETS as well as the revision of InvestEU"). For these purposes, the EC "will launch in 2025 a pilot with a € 1 billion auction on the decarbonisation of key industrial processes across various sectors" and launch Horizon Europe with € 600 million of funding to support fit-for-deployment projects;
4. Ensuring secure access to materials and resources, including Fast Implementation of the Critical Raw Materials Act and adopt a Circular Economy Act in 2026 to promote collection and recycling of materials; and
5. Clean Trade and CBAM, including EU Member States to enter Free Trade Agreements to include Clean Trade provisions, and a comprehensive review of CBAM, critically, to simplify

On May 22, 2025, the European Parliament voted (564 to 20) to approve amendments to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to reduce the number of corporations and other organizations importing goods into the European Union: the EC's Omnibus Proposal proposed a 50 metric tonne threshold for CBAM, which would exempt 90% of importers CBAM, while still covering over 99% of emissions from iron, steel, aluminium and cement imports.

In February directional adjustments to the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD)10and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSRDD)¹¹ were proposed¹² The Omnibus Proposal¹³ was discussed consistently throughout 2025 before being approved in December 2025.

On April 3, 2025, the European Parliament adopted the Omnibus Stop-the-Clock (STC) proposal in respect of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CRSD) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). The STC proposal delayed a number of obligations under the CRSD and CSDDD in relation to:

• the CSRD providing that large enterprises and parents of large enterprises scheduled to begin reporting in 2026 for the 2025 financial year, now have a new reporting start date of 2028 for the 2027 financial year and small and medium-sized enterprises with securities listed in the EU scheduled to begin reporting in 2027 for the 2026 financial year, now have a new reporting start date of 2029 for the 2028 financial year;
• the CSDDD providing that the deadline for EU member states to enact the CSDDD into national law has been postponed by one year to 26 July 2027 and the initial phase of the CSDDD requirements for the companies to which the CSDDD is to apply in the first instance (i.e., EU companies with more than 5,000 employees and net worldwide turnover exceeding EUR 5 billion and non-EU companies with an EU turnover above this threshold) has been postponed to 2028.

On December 16, 2025, the European Parliament voted in favor of scaling back sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements (428 votes in favor, 218 against, with 17 abstentions).

Under the Omnibus:

• CSRD applies to corporations and other organizations with 1,000 employees and above, having annual net turnover of € 450 million and above. The rules will also apply to non-EU companies with net turnover in the EU of over €450 million and to their subsidiaries and branches generating turnover higher than €200 million in the EU;
• CSDDD (or CSD3) applies to corporations and other organizations with 5,000 employees and above, having annual net turnover of € 1.5 billion and Climate Transition Plans are not required;

During March 2025, Editions 27 and 28 of P2N0 identified the following as key news items:

• On March 3, 2025, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that during 2025, 32.5 GW of PV solar capacity, 18.2 GW of energy storage capacity, and 7.7 GW of wind capacity would be installed across the The installation of 63 GW of renewable electrical energy capacity across the US, will represent over 92% of new installed generation capacity. In April 2025, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reported that a little less than 98% of new electrical energy generating capacity across the US, with around 75% of that new capacity comprising PV solar.
• On March 4, 2025, Zenon Research published Decarbonizing steel production – Is hydrogen the only lever (Zenon Research Paper). The Zenon Research Paper reminds us that:
  • Primary iron and steel production is essential to the global economy;
  • 90% of current primary iron and steel production of 1.9 gigatonnes uses coal-based blast furnace- basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) technology; and
  • the total carbon footprint arising from primary iron and steel production (measured by Scope 1 and 2 emissions) is 3.6 giga tonnes of CO2-e emissions (or 3.6 billion metric tonnes).

Each year at least 10% of energy related GHG emissions globally arise from primary production of iron and steel.

• On March 7, 2025 (at https://climate.ec.europa.eu, under Over-subscribed European Hydrogen Bank auction receives 61 bids for Innovation Fund support, including 8 maritime projects), it was reported that 61 bids from 11 countries (within the European Economic Area) had been received under the EHB second auction for the production of renewable hydrogen.
• On March 8, 2025, northernforum (at northernforum.net, under Japan is the first nation to experiment with a complex nuclear technology that also produces hydrogen) reported that the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) intended "to use a fourth-generation nuclear reactor a high-temperature gas- cooled reactor (HTGR) to produce hydrogen without emitting carbon dioxide". Because HTGRs operate at up to, and beyond, 800OC, this high-temperature heat can be used to power the sulphur-iodine cycle (a thermochemical reaction) to split water to produce hydrogen and
• On March 11, 2025, the UK Government, Legislative Branch, (House of Commons Library) published a research briefing, entitled The forthcoming national security strategy 2025: FAQ. The publication recognised that the availability of CM3 is a key part of the national security of the UK.
• On March 14, 2025, the CEOs of RWE and TotalEnergies signed a long-term green hydrogen offtake agreement under which RWE will supply green hydrogen produced at its 300 MW electrolysis facility at Lingen, Germany, to TotalEnergies to decarbonise activities at TotalEnergies' refinery in Leuna, Germany. As announced, the long-term agreement commits RWE to deliver 30,000 metric tonnes of green hydrogen a year to TotalEnergies for 15 years. This continued the strategy of TotalEnergies to decarbonize its refining activities using green hydrogen.
• On March 17, 2025, it was reported widely that Thailand had approved USD 7 billion of investments to allow the development of data centres and cloud services. As reported, the investments approved were as follows: the investment from Beijing Haoyang to include the development of a new 300 MW data centre, Empyrion Digital to include investment in a new 12 MW data centre, and GSA Data Center O2 to include investment in a new 35 MW data centre.
• On March 17, 2025, The Business Times (at https://www.businesstimes.com, under Chinese data centre firm GDS seeks record USD 3.4 billion loan), reported that GDS Holdings was seeking a USD 3.4 billion loan funding to develop and to operate data centres in Malaysia. The Business Times reported that: "The southern state of Johor [in Malaysia] – which sits across from the city-state of Singapore – has about 30 projects completed or under construction, plus 20 more awaiting approvals". This loan funding was obtained in mid-2025.
• On March 19, 2025, Demand and Supply Measures for the Steel and Cement Transition – The case for international co-ordination was published. The publication was developed at the request of the Climate Club. Cement, concrete, iron and steel are essential to the continued development of the global Just as these industries are essential to continued development, and to progress to net-zero GHG emissions, these industries need to be decarbonised. The publication notes that:

"The steel and cement sectors accounts for 14% of global energy and process-related emissions on a direct basis, making them central to the decarbonisation challenge".

• On March 24, 2025, the Global Energy Review 2025 was published. The headlines from the publication were: increased demand for energy, with demand for electrical energy increasing by 4.3%, with increased demand to respond to the increased use of electrical energy for AI, cooling and EVs (EV car sales increased by 25%); that 700 GW of renewable electrical energy capacity was installed during 2024 represented 80% of the new generation capacity installed (with 80% of the 700 GW being new renewable capacity such as solar capacity); and the demand for natural gas (including natural gas) at a record high.
• On March 25, 2025, South Korea announced that it was to continue to increase recycling initiatives, with the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announcing the Key Mineral Recycling Activation Promotion Plan. The implementation of the Plan is intended to increase recycling rates to 20% in respect of 10 strategic metals and minerals critical to the battery, EV, and semi-conductor industries.
• On March 25, 2025, the EC published Commission Decision of 3.2025 recognising certain critical raw material projects as Strategic Projects under Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 of the European Parliament and the Council. The EC Decision recognizes 47 projects as Strategic Projects across 13 Member States, Belgium, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Estonia, Czechia, Greece, Sweden, Finland, Portugal, Poland, and Romania. The Strategic Projects cover 14 of the 17 raw materials listed as critical under the Critical Raw Materials Act, including cobalt (10 projects), graphite (11 projects), lithium (22 projects), manganese (1 project), and nickel (12 projects). As reported, to progress the 47 Strategic Projects to operation, around €22.5 billion in capital investment will be required.
• On March 27, 2025, Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies announced that they had taken a positive final investment decision (FID) to develop phase 2 of the Northern Lights CO2, transport, and storage project to increase capacity of the project from 1.5 million metric tonnes a year, to 5 million metric tonnes a year by As reported, the positive FID to develop phase 2 was taken in the context of the Stockholm Exergi contracting for storage services for 800,000 metric tonnes of biogenic CO2 annually.
• During March 2025, the China National Bureau of Statistics reported that during January and February 2025, China deployed a further 50 GW of renewable electrical energy

During April 2025, the following received considerable coverage reflected in the news items covered in Editions 29 and 30 of P2N0:

• On April 3, 2025, the Visual Capitalist published an article entitled The Projected Rise in US Data Center Energy Use.

The article provides the following Key Takeaway: From 2023 to 2030, US data center energy use is forecasted to quadruple: "The rise in energy use will be driven by AI and an increasingly digital world, and getting access to power is a critical step in the building of new data centers but this can take up to 10 years in some cases".

• GH2 projects continue to attract government funding support:
  • On April 4, 2025, the Spanish Government published the final proposal for €1.2 billion of funding support for seven renewable hydrogen projects . The funding, which is State Aid in the EU, had been approved by the EC in July 2024.
  • On April 7, 2025, the UK Government (Department for Energy Security and New Zero), at https://www.gov.uk,under New Hydrogen power projects to boost growth,announced that 27 H2 projects had been shortlisted. As announced, the 27 H2 projects selected are part of the Second Hydrogen Allocation Round (HR2), and cover projects for ammonia production, brick making, clean power generation, glass manufacturing, and SAF production.
• On April 4, 2025, the EU announced that it intended to provide funding for raw materials resource development and supply, critical infrastructure, and energy projects. The attached link provides a link to the announcement. By way of background, Central Asia comprises Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and within these countries there are approximately 276 metal and mineral production sites and deposits.
• On April 9, 2025, the Government of India published its National Critical Mineral Mission "to establish a robust framework for self-reliance in the critical mining sector". For these purposes, the Geological Survey of India is to conduct 1,200 exploration projects.
• On April 18, 2025, the US announced the First Wave of Critical Mineral Production Projects (at https://www.whitehouse.gov, under Trump Administration Advances First Wave of Critical Mineral Production Projects) in response to the Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production executive The initial selected projects listed were Resolution Cooper Project, Stibnite Gold Project, Warrior Met Coal Mines, McDermitt Exploration Project, Southwest Arkansas Project, Caldwell Canyon Mine Project, Libby Exploration Project, Lisbon Valley Copper Project, Silver Peak Lithium Mine, and Michigan Potash.
• On April 15, 2025, Vietnam published an amended version of PDP8 – the Revised National Power Development Plan for 2021-2030, with a forward-looking perspective to 2050 (PDP8). In the context of P2N0, the key takeaway is that GHG emissions from electrical energy generation are to be capped at 197 – 199 million metric tonnes of CO2 by 2030, representing a reduction of 27 million metric tonnes from current "business as usual", and 170 million metric tonnes of CO2 by 2030 if JETP is utilized in

In the context of PDP8, the aim is to phase out use of coal by 2050: by 2050, the power mix will comprise approximately 74 to 76% of renewable energy. Under the forward-looking perspective is Total Capacity of 490,529 MV to 573,129 MW, comprising:

- photovoltaic solar of 168,594 MW to 89,294 MW (33% to 34.4%);

- offshore wind 70,000 MW 91,500 MW (14.3% to 16%); and

- offshore wind 60,050 MW to 77,050 MW (12.2% - 13.4%),

With the balance comprising, among others, storage power sources, thermal power using biomass and ammonia, hydro, biomass, waste to energy, geothermal or new energy, LNG, and hydrogen.

• On April 16, 2025, it was reported widely that the world's largest liquid carbon dioxide (LCO2) carrier had been launched. As reported, the LCO2 carrier has the capacity to carry 22,000 m³ of LCO2. The LCO2 carrier is the first of four LCO2 carriers (with a total cost of USD 756 million) ordered by the Greek shipping company, Capital Clean Energy Carriers, from South Korean shipbuilder, Hyundai Mipo.
• On April 24, 2025, the farmingdale observer (at farmingdale-observer.com, under A Massive Lithium Deposit Discovered in An Unexpected Location Is Shaking Up The Global Resource Landscape) reported that the Smackover Formation in Arkansas has between 5 and 19 metric million tonnes of lithium resource. In the context of US CMM supply security, the development of the resource would reduce, and remove, the need to source supplies of lithium from Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile.
• On April 24, 2025, the US announced an order titled the Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources (at https://whitehouse.gov). Among other things, the order stipulated that:
  • the Secretary of Commerce was to provide a report on the feasibility of an international benefit- sharing mechanism for seabed mineral resource extraction and development in areas beyond the national jurisdiction of any country; and
  • the Secretary of Defence and the Secretary of Energy was to provide a report to address the feasibility and any potential benefits or drawbacks of using the National Defence Stockpile for storage of materials derived from seabed polymetallic nodules and of entering offtake agreements for these materials.
• On April 24, 2025, Eni took a positive final investment decision, and achieved financial close (in respect of £2 billion of funding) with the UK Government (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero), to develop the Eni carbon injection and storage project in Liverpool Bay, in the Irish Sea, as part of the HyNet decarbonisation initiative in the North-West of

The positive final investment decision was taken as Eni was granted a carbon storage permit from the North Sea Transition Authority. This was the second carbon injection and storage project to take a positive final investment decision in the UK, the first being the Northern Endurance project in late 2024.

• On Monday, April 28, 2025, at 12.33 CEST there were widespread power outages across Spain and Portugal, and Southern France for up to 10 hours, longer in some areas.

At the centre of the power outages was Red Eléctrica España or REE (the transmission system operator in Spain). Neither REE nor the Spanish Government have been able to confirm the cause of the power outages. What is clear from the data is that at 12.33 CEST there was a sudden drop in electricity transmission across the grid, by some estimates in the region of 15 GW.

In the time leading up to the sudden reduction, France stopped importing electrical energy from Spain, there was a spike in wind generation, and as the circumstances unfolded, nuclear power plants received an overload alert (i.e., overvoltage), with the result that electrical energy ceased to be sent out from them. Add to this the fact that photovoltaic solar dispatch reduced by 10 GW from 18 GW to 8 GW, and you have whole of grid instability.

From all that the author read at the time there was sufficient available generation capacity, and yet the dispatch of it was not managed given the supply-side events that took place within a very short period of time. What is clear is that when there are different sources of electrical energy across a grid, grid management is complex and maintaining integrity and stability becomes increasingly complex.

Later in the year, on October 3, 2025, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) issued a Factual Report reporting on the data and the facts arising in the lead up to the outage, and its impacts. The Factual Report is entitled Grid Incident in Spain and Portugal on 28 April 2025 – ICS Investigation Expert Panel Factual Report.

The headline was that the "root cause" of the outage was "cascading overvoltage" with the grid unable to reboot automatically to stem the problem, and then to reboot.

The EU is taking action to avoid any recurrence, with the EC reported to be working on the EU energy security framework to ensure that the lessons learned from the outage are fully integrated into updated policies and measures. As reported in P2N0, the cause of the outage was not renewable energy. At the time it was noted that the EU was scheduled to share draft legislation to recognize the need for greater resilience in grid infrastructure during November 25, 2025. The EU proposed the EU Grids Package in December 2025.

What is clear is that grid investment is needed, and needed urgently, in the EU and the US. The EC estimates that by 2040 around €477 billion needs to be invested in the transmission grid, and around €730 in distribution networks.

• On April 28, 2025, world nuclear news (at https://www.world-nuclear-news.org, under Ten new reactors approved in China) reported that the State Council of China had approved the development of "five new nuclear power projects – Fanchenggang Phase III, Haiyang Phase III, Sanmen Phase III, Taishan Phase II and Xiapu Phase I – with a total of 10 reactors, including eight Hualong One units".
• On April 28, 2025, the Council of Ministers approved around €2.8 billion in funding support to develop supply and demand side for green hydrogen within the As understood, around €2.1 billion of funding support will be provided in respect of the development of green hydrogen production capacity (supply side) and €662 million of funding support will be provided in respect of demand- side initiatives.

• Publications of note during the month of April 2025:
  • BloombergNEF published its 2025 New Energy Outlook (NEO) – one of the must-reads each NEO 2025 outlines the following two key findings:
    1. Continuing demand decline for coal and oil, although the rate of decline is not clear; and
    2. GHG emissions globally may have peaked in 2024, plateau or commence decline during
  • IRENA published The Powerful Role in Geopolitics is to Manage the Energy Transition. The publication, authored by Francesco La Camera, provides a clear-sighted and nuanced perspective, including in respect of energy security and the supply of For these purposes, the publication ties back to Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Energy Security and Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. The three publications are well worth reading in one sitting.
  • IRENA published Renewables in 2024: 5 Key Facts Behind a Record-Breaking Year. The five key facts being: Record-high renewable energy capacity additions in 2024 – with 585 GW of new capacity installed during 2024; 2. Renewable electrical energy installations accounted for more than 92% of total power expansion in 2024; 3. Solar power takes the lead, with 42% of the global electrical energy mix now solar; 4. Asia dominates the newly installed renewable electrical energy capacity; and 5. The rate of installation of new renewable electrical energy capacity is still less than the rate required to triple renewable electrical energy capacity by 2030.

During May 2025, the following key new items were covered in Editions 31 and 32 of P2N0:

• On May 1, 2025, Ukraine and the US signed an agreement under which a reconstruction fund will be established, to be managed by Ukraine and the US jointly. The reconstruction fund will comprise funding from various sources, with Ukraine itself, to be a key source, with 50% of the profits received by the Government of Ukraine from new energy and resource developments (after the developments have been in operation for 10 years) to be paid into the fund. New energy and resource developments which are the subject of the agreement include CM3 and REEs (with 55 materials specified) projects, and natural gas and oil projects.
• On May 2, 2025, datacenterdynamics (at https://www.datacenterdynamics.com, under Meta raises AI data center capex forecast to up to $72 bn) reported that Meta expected its 2025 capital expenditure to increase to between USD 64 billion and USD 72 billion. In the first quarter of 2025, Meta spent USD

13.7 billion, primarily on servers, data centers, and network infrastructure.

• On May 5, 2025, utility dive (at https://www.utilitydive.com, under PJM fast-tracks 8 GW, mainly gas, to bolster power supplies) reported that PJM Interconnection had selected 51 projects to join a fast- track interconnection review process as part of a broad effort to ensure that the grid operator has adequate supplies of electrical energy to ensure the integrity and stability of the transmission system.

As reported (and as may be expected), gas-fired power generation accounted for 69% of the capacity selected, BESS 19 %, and nuclear 12% (with 0.1% coal), with 90% of the projects to be operating by 2030. The article is well-worth a read. While the article goes to the integrity and stability of the PJM grid, the underlying need that is explained is relevant for most transmission systems.

• On May 7, 2025, the CSIS (at https://www.csis.org, under G7 Cooperation to De-Risk Minerals Investments in the Global South) reported that all G7 member countries regard the security of supply of CM3 as a strategic imperative. CSIS states that:
  • the level of combined investment for these purposes is USD 590 billion to USD 2 trillion by 2040: the actual level of investment provided by G7 governments is in the region of USD 13 billion. CSIS suggests that the G7 should establish a G7 Critical Minerals Investment Fund;
  • recounts the existing G7 initiatives:
• The Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI); and
• The Minerals Security Partnership (MSG).
• On May 7, 2025, the IEA published its Global Methane Tracker 2025for Methane (CH4). The Global Methane Tracker 2025 lays out the basic facts: CH4 is responsible for 30% of the increase in global average temperatures since the 1850s; and 2. The energy sector is responsible for 35% of GHG emissions arising now. Avoidance and reduction in GHG emissions from the energy sector offers a present opportunity to address climate change.

The key findings are that the energy sector is responsible for around 120 million metric tonnes of CH4 emissions annually, and while each of the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) and the waste sectors is responsible for material quantities of CH4 emissions, the avoidance and reduction of CH4 emissions across the energy sector offers the most immediate means of benefit through abatement.

• On May 15, 2025, the Chamber of Representatives in Belgium voted in favour (102 votes in favour, eight votes against, and 31 abstentions) of the repeal of the 2003 legislation that prevented the development of new nuclear power stations within the country and provided for the shuttering of seven existing nuclear power plants. With the repeal of the 2003 legislation the first order of business will be to extend the lives of the nuclear power plants.
• On May 15, 2025, it was reported widely that during the first quarter of 2025, GHG emissions declined by 1.6% across China, and 5.5% across the power sector in China, year-on-year (compared to Q1 of 2024). This decline is notable of itself and because year-on-year electrical energy consumption across China increased by 2.5%.
• On May 16, 2025, the Danish Energy Agency announced that 10 CCS projects were to receive up to DKK

28.4 billion (around €3.7 billion) in government funding support. The 10 CCS projects comprise 1 cement plant, 2 biomass combined and heat and power projects, and 7 waste-to-energy projects. If all projects are developed, up to 5.3 million tonnes of CO2 will be sequestered from them.

• On May 20, 2025, the EU announced the results of the second auction for RFNBO Hydrogen in the Results of the IF 24 RFNBO Hydrogen Auction. The second auction was seeking to procure RFNBO Hydrogen in a general category and in a maritime

As announced, 61 bids were received from 10 different European Economic Area (EEA) countries14amounting to 6.3 GW of electrolyser capacity, with a total bid value of €4.48 billion in the general category and €399 million in the maritime category. For further narrative, click through to https://europa.eu.commission, under Nearly € billion awarded to boost development of renewable hydrogen and https://climate.ec.europa.eu, under Clean Industrial Deal.

Total funding of €992 million was awarded across 15 projects. The funding will be sourced from the EU Innovation Fund. In turn, the EU ETS provides the revenue for the Innovation Fund.

In addition to the funding from the Innovation Fund, it is understood that Austria, Lithuania and Spain have allocated up to €836 million in funding for projects in their countries under Auctions-as-a- Service.

• On May 21, 2025, the IEA published the Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. The publication provides a comprehensive assessment of the market for (CM3) and REEs, including detailed outlooks for cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel, platinum metals, REEs, silicon, silver, and uranium.

To provide some context, Elements produced Visualizing the Abundance of Elements in the Earth's Crust among other things, indicating that bauxite (aluminium) is the most abundant element found in the earth's crust (at 8.23%), followed by iron (5.6%), calcium (4.15%), sodium (2.36%), magnesium (2.33%), potassium (2.09%) and titanium (0.565%). Other CM3s and REEs are to be found with other elements comprising 0.48% of the earth's crust.

• On May 21, 2025, the European Commission adopted a Delegated Regulation ( Commission Decision specifying the pro-rata contribution to the Union CO2 injection capacity objective by 2030 from entities holding an authorisation as defined in Article 1, point 3, of Directive 94/22/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council) prescribing that oil and gas producers must contribute 50 million metric tonnes of CO2 storage capacity by December 31, 2030 in proportion to their production of oil and gas from 2020 to 2023. The forty-four oil and gas companies are listed in Annex 1, and each has an obligation for these purposes.
• On May 25, 2025, ENEOS and Honeywell announced plans to develop a transport system to transport hydrogen vector methylcyclohexane (MCH). MCH, a hydrogen energy vector, is produced by the combination of toluene and hydrogen (H2). The H2 is extracted from MCH by dehydrogenation, with ENEOS refineries deploying dehydrogenation facilities to extract hydrogen from the
• On May 26, 2025, the Indonesia Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MIMR) issued the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2025 - 2034. The RUPTL is based on the National Energy Policy (KEN) and the National Electricity General Plan (RUKN). While there are many points to note, the headlines were:
  • An additional 5 GW of generation capacity is planned:
    • 75% of which will be renewable energy (42.6 GW), and associated electrical energy storage, including BESS and pumped storage (10.3 GW):

• the 42.6 GW of renewable energy will comprise: photovoltaic solar – 1 GW, hydroelectric – 11.7 GW, Wind – 7.2 GW, Geothermal – 5.2 GW, Bioenergy – 0.9 GW, and Nuclear 0.5 GW (comprising two new build 250 MW nuclear power stations)¹⁵ and
• the 10.3 GW of electrical energy storage will comprise 6 GW of pumped storage and 4.3 GW of BESS; and

• with the balance (of 16.6 GW) to be non-renewable, with 10.3 GW of gas-fired capacity and 6.3 GW of coal-fired capacity.

• The new electrical energy generation capacity is to be undertaken across
• The augmentation and expansion, and development of new transmission infrastructure will be essential. Over the period covered by the RUPTL, PLN has scheduled the development of around 47,000 km of transmission lines and an increase in substation capacity by 107,950 MVA.
• The increased electrification across

During June 2025, the following key news items were covered in Edition 33 of P2N0:

• On June 4, 2025, the EC approved a list of 13 Strategic Projects to develop raw materials outside the EU: details of the 13 projects can be found at the EC website at https://commission.europa.eu/, ( Commission selects 13 Strategic Projects in third countries to secure access to raw materials and to support local value creation).
• UK Government committed to stepped change in nuclear:
  • On June 12, 2025, the UK Government committed to the development of the £2.5 billion Spherical Takamak For Energy Production (STEP) facility. The STEP facility will be developed on the site of a shuttered coal-fired power plant at Burton, Nottinghamshire, England.
  • On June 10, 2025, the UK Government committed to the development of the GBP 14 billion Sizewell C nuclear power facility. Sizewell C will be developed in the Ipswich, Suffolk region of the UK.
• On June 10, 2025, the UK government allocated £9.4 billion (over nine years) to maximize use of the East Coast Cluster and HyNet Cluster, and to continue to support the development of Acorn and Viking Clusters to advance their delivery.
• On June 12, 2025, the Solar Energy Corporation of India Limited (SECI) continued its procurement initiatives, this time to procure 2 GW of PV solar capacity and 4 GWh of BESS, using a Build Own Operate model under which the private sector will develop the photovoltaic solar and BESS capacity and provide electrical energy to SECI.
• On June 12, 2025, the Philippines' Department of Energy (DOE) commenced the process for its Fifth Green Energy Auction (GEA-5), inviting bids to develop up to 3GW of fixed-bottom offshore wind field capacity. This follows the continued progress of GEA-4 (with an advisory update on June 11, 2025), and the publication of the Green Energy Auction Reserve Prices for GEA-4 (on June 13, 2025) providing caps.

As announced by the DOE, in respect of GEA-4, evaluations of bids were scheduled during the final week of June 2025, followed by notification to bidders qualified to bid, with the bid process to take place by auction on September 2, 2025. Awards occurred in November 2025, with GEA-4 resulting in awards for 123 projects covering 10 GW of REE capacity.

In respect of GEA-5, the DOE launched the process on November 25, 2025, following the same process as GEA-4 with pre-bid bidder registration, and the auction process to conclude and the successful bidders to be notified during the first half of 2026.

• On June 13, 2025, energystorage (at https;//energy-storage.news, under Japan: Gurin Energy picks technology provider for first phase of 2GWh battery storage project) reported that Gurin Energy has chosen Salt as the technology provider for its BESS to be developed in Soma, Fukushima.
• On June 17, 2025, the EC published its Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on phasing out Russian natural gas imports, improving monitoring of potential energy discrepancies and amending Regulation (EU) 2017 / 1938.

On December 17, 2025, the EU Parliament approved the gradual phase out of the import of natural gas by pipeline, and for the EC to prepare for a ban on the import of oil from Russia during 2027.

• On June 20, 2025, the IEA published Assessing emissions from LNG supply and abatement options. The key facts and statistics are:
  • The IEA estimates that extraction and production, processing, refining and treatment and transport of oil and natural gas (and LNG) give rise to around 5.2 Gt CO2-e a year, 3.5 Gt CO2-e from oil, and

1.6 Gt CO2-e from natural gas (and LNG), operations (i.e., from activities within the Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions across the sectors).

• It is estimated that 350 million metric tonnes of CO2-e GHG emissions arise in the LNG supply chain (from extraction and production to the point of use). The IEA estimates that it would take USD 100 billion to reduce these GHG emission by 60%. The means of achieving this reduction are detailed in the IEA report.

It is estimated that 41.6 Gt CO2 emissions¹⁶ arose in 2024 from fossil fuel use (35.8 Gt), cement production (1.6 Gt) and land use (4.2 Gt). A further 5.2 Gt CO2-e emissions arising as Scope 1 and 2 emissions¹⁷of the oil and natural gas (and LNG) industries. The IEA¹⁸ estimates that 37.8 Gt of CO2 emissions arose from the combustion of fuel (including CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, industrial processes and fugitive and flaring emissions).

• During June 2025, flagship reports were published by the International Gas Union (IGU) and International Group of LNG Importers (GIIGNL). The reports provide a helpful analysis of the LNG

The key facts and statistics are:

• Total natural gas production was circa 4.2 trillion cubic metres in the calendar year to the end of 2024, equating to 044 billion metric tonnes of natural gas, giving rise to around 7.5 billion metric tonnes of CO2 emissions on combustion; and
• Total LNG production was circa 406 to 420 million metric tonnes of LNG in 2024, equating to around

1.165billionmetrictonnesofCO2 emissionsoncombustion.

Of the LNG exported, 69% went to Asia, 24% to Europe, 4% to the Americas and 3% to the Middle East and Africa. It is estimated that by 2050, total production globally of natural gas will reach 5.3 trillion cubic metres annually (or 3.841 billion metric tonnes).

• On June 18, 2025, it was reported widely that TotalEnergies had been successful in bids for 1.2 GW of OWF capacity in the most recent Federal German government tender process (for N-9.4). TotalEnergies was successful based on its bid to pay €180 million to entitle it to develop the OWF.

As reported, TotalEnergies was one of two bidders who submitted negative bids (i.e., they are not seeking government support). The negative bids indicate that the OWF market (at least in the German sector of the North Sea) has reached maturity.

• On June 19, 2025, the findings of The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) study were reported. The headline grabbing find was that India has the potential to develop up to 10,830 GW of PV solar
• On June 23, 2025, pv-magazine (at https://www.pv-magazine.com, under China hits 1 TW solar milestone) reported that China had installed 92 GW of PV solar capacity in May 2025.
• On June 23, 2025, came to market to undertake a tender by way of reverse auction for the supply of up to 724,000 metric tonnes of green ammonia under 10-year contracts. As reported, the green ammonia supplied will be used to produce fertilizer. In addition to the use of green ammonia, it is expected that use of biochar (by adding biochar to soil to provide for slow release of carbon and to facilitate the release of other minerals) will develop.

During August 2025, the following outcomes of the reverse auction were reported:

1. ACME to supply Paradeep Phosphates Limited with 75,000 metric tonnes of NH3 a year at 75 rupees per kg (or USD 641 per metric tonne) under a 10-year term contract;
2. NTPC Renewable Energy to supply Krishana Phoschem Limited with 70,000 metric tonnes of NH3 a year at 51.80 rupees per kg (or at USD 591 per metric tonne) under a 10-year term contract;
3. Oriana Power to supply Madhya Bharat Agro Projects Limited with 60,000 metric tonnes a year at

52.25 rupees per kg (or at USD 596 per metric tonne) under a 10-year term contract;

4. SCC Infrastructure to supply Madhya Bharat Agro Projects Limited with 70,000 metric tonnes a year at 53.55 rupees per kg (or at USD 596 per metric tonne) under a 10-year term contract;
5. Onix Renewable to supply Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilisers & Chemicals with 50,000 metric tonnes of NH3 a year at 52.50 rupees per kg (or at USD 596 per metric tonne) under a 10-year term contract;

6. Jakson Green Private Limited to supply Coromandel International Limited in Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh with 85,000 metric tonnes of NH3 a year at 75 rupees kg (or at USD 579 per metric tonne) under a 10-year term contract;
7. ACME to supply Coromandel International with 50,00 metric tonnes of NH3 a year at 52 rupees per kg (or at USD 593 per metric tonne), under a 10-year term contract; and
8. Suryam International to supply Madras Fertilisers Limited with 4,000 tonnes NH3 a year at 50 rupees per kg (or at USD 567 per metric tonne).

• On June 25, 2025 the Monthly Energy Review (published by the EIA) reported that the primary energy consumption in the US during 2024 was at record As is the case in other countries, as the use of coal, as a primary energy source, decreases, the role of natural gas increases: 38% of primary energy production in the US was from natural gas. In second place behind natural gas was crude oil, providing 27% of primary energy production.

During July 2025, the following news items were covered in Edition 34 of P2N0:

• On July 2, 2025, the EC published the proposed amendment to the EU Climate Law: Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality 19To accompany the proposed amendment, the EC published Delivering on the Clean Industrial – Communication20. The proposed amendment provides for a 90% reduction in net-GHG emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 (EURT).

On November 5, 2025, EU Climate Ministers agreed a 2040 GHG emissions reduction target, which providing for a reduction of 90% of GHG emissions by 2040 compared to 1990. In a move away from the position outlined in proposed legislation on July 2, 202521, EU Climate Ministers agreed to allow EU Member States to purchase carbon credits from countries outside the EU to match up to 5% of the 2040 90% GHG emission target reduction.

On December 10, 2025, the European Council and European Parliament agreed to the 2040 90% GHG emissions reduction and the use of carbon credits to offset up to 5% of that target: the EU Climate Law will be amended to provide for a 90% reduction in GHG emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels.

• On July 2, 2025, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) convened a meeting of experts to discuss and to develop the detailed design for the GTS-

The GTS-ETS was scheduled to commence operation at the start of Q2 of 2026. As things stand, from April 2026, pricing will be provided for corporations and other organizations averaging scope 1 emission of more than 100,000 metric tonnes of CO2-e over the previous three years.

• China ESS sector running hot:
  • On July 4, 2025, pv-magazine (at pv-magazine.com under World's largest vanadium flow battery goes online in China) reported that the China Huaneng Group vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) had been completed. The source of renewable electrical energy for the VRFB is a 1 GW photovoltaic solar farm. The VRFB is reported to have capacity aligned with the renewable energy capacity at 200 MW / 1,000 MWh.
  • During the first week of July 2025, PowerChina commenced the construction of its USD 880 million 1 GW / 6 GWh electrochemical energy storage project in Ulanqab, Mongolia. As reported, the project will comprise up to 1,200 units, each of 5 MWh lithium phosphate energy storage capacity. More detail on the project can be found at https://www.energy-storage.news under PowerChina begins construction of "world's largest generation-side" battery storage project.
• On July 13, 2025, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, signed agreements for the development of seven new renewable energy projects. The agreements were signed under the National Renewable Energy Program, administered by the Ministry of Energy, with ACWA Power in consortium with Badeel (owned by PIF) and Aramco Power (owned by Saudi Aramco) parties to the As reported, the seven projects, with a total capacity of 15 GW, will have a total capital cost of USD 8.3 billion.

The seven projects are:

• five solar energy projects: Afif 1 – 2,000 MW; Afif 2 – 2,000 MW; Humaij – 3,000 MW; Bisha – 3,000 MW; Khulis – 2,000 MW; and
• two wind energy projects: Starah – 2,000 MW; and Shaqra – 1,000

• On July 23, 2025, the UK Government (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero) published the Contracts for Difference (CfD) Round 7: Contract Allocation Framework. Critically, the UK Government has recognized the need for long-term CfDs, from 15-years to 20-years. In addition, there is an increase in the Administrative Strike Price (ASP), with offshore wind to £113 MWh fixed-bottom, £271 MWh for floating wind, and £92 for onshore wind. The ASP for PV solar decreased to £75 MWh.
• On July 23, 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) gave an Advisory Opinion on Climate Change in response to questions posed in resolution of the UN General Assembly on March 29, 2023. The Advisory Opinion relates to the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change.

During August and September 2025, the following were the key news items covered:

• On August 6, 2025, Inside Climate News (at https://insideclimatenews.org, under Why Prices Are Soaring in the Country's Largest Grid Region, Explained in 5 Charts) reported that PJN Interconnection is experiencing high prices in its auction process, which matches electricity demand across its grid with supply. These elevated prices were driven by a combination of hot weather and increasing electricity demand, primarily from energy-intensive data centers.

• On August 11, 2025, it was reported widely that Indonesia plans to develop and to deploy 80 GW of renewable electrical energy capacity across 80,000 villages. The development and deployment of the 80 GW of remote (off-grid) PV solar capacity will be accompanied by the development of 20 GW of centralised (on-grid) PV capacity.
• On August 15, 2025, the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com, under Data Centres to be expanded across UK as concerns mount) reported that the estimated 477 data centres in the UK is to increase by around 100 in the near to near to medium term, e., within the next five years. Among the data centres identified are a £10 billion AI data centre in Blyth, near Newcastle upon Tyne (to be developed by Blackstone Group), four data centres planned by Microsoft, with two in the Leeds area, one in Newport, Wales, and one in Acton, Greater London. Google is developing a £740 million data centre in Hertfordshire.
• China continues to break records:
  • On August 21, 2025, it was reported widely that CO2 emissions in China had reduced during the first six months of 2025 (H1) by up to 3% from the generation of electrical energy; and
  • Also, during August 2025, it was reported widely that during H1 of 2025, China had installed a further 268 GW of photovoltaic solar (212 GW) and wind (56 GW) electrical energy capacity (taking the capacity for photovoltaic solar and wind to close to 1,650 GW of installed capacity).

In the first six months of 2025, China:

• generated more than 500 TWh of electrical energy from PV solar, broadly stated a little more than the demand for electrical energy in Japan; and
• installed more PV solar capacity (of 212 GW) than the US has installed to

Taken with other renewable energy capacity, China has nearly 2,200 GW (or 2.2 TW) of renewable electrical energy installed.

• On August 18, 2025, hydrogeninsight (at hydrogen.com, under Second-largest in China State- owned firm to build giant 2.2GW green hydrogen-to-ammonia project) reported that China Energy Investment Corporation had been given the green light to develop a 2.2 GW green hydrogen-to- ammonia project. The project will cost around USD 1.8 billion to develop and will produce up to 1.35 million metric tonnes of green hydrogen a year.
• On August 18, 2025, hydrogeninsight (at https://www.hydrogeninsight.com, under " No showstopper identified" / Five gas pipeline operators complete study on 3,400 hydrogen corridor) reported that five transmission service operators (TSOs), Eurstream (Slovakia), Net4Gas (Czechia), OGE (Germany), Snam (Italy) and TAG (Austria) had concluded that there are no showstoppers to the development of the SunsHyde As reported, the conclusion is that the SunsHyde Corridor can be developed by 2030, with capacity of 450 GWh a day (or 5 million metric tonnes a year). The SunsHyde Corridor will comprise 85% repurposed existing pipeline systems.
• On August 25, 2025, it was reported widely that Gentari (the green limb of PETRONAS) and Gamuda are to develop jointly 1.5 GW PV solar and BESS capacity under Malaysia's Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme (CRESS).

In a joint statement, Gentari and Gamuda noted:

"As ... critical facilities for cloud computing, AI and digital services, hyperscale DCs ... are projected to require 5GW of reliable power by 2035".

• On August 25, 2025, the Northern Lights Project injected its first CO2 to effect storage For Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies, this marked the successful development of Phase 1 of the Northern Lights Project as part of the Long Ship Project backed by the Government of Norway.

As reported, the CO2, captured at the Heidelberg Minerals cement plant, in Breivik, Norway, transported to the Northern Lights Project consolidation and storage facilities Øygarden, Norway, and then sent out 100 km for injection 2,600 metres below the sea-floor of the Norwegian sector of the North Sea.

The injection of CO2 marked the start of operation of Phase 1 of the Northern Lights Project, under which

1.5 million metric tonnes of CO2 will be injected each year.

• On August 28, 2025, ExxonMobil published ExxonMobil 2025 Global Outlook. The publication provides the outlook of ExxonMobil through The by-line for the ExxonMobil publication is:

"Increasing global energy supply and reducing emissions is not only possible. It's essential." The key takeaways from the ExxonMobil publication are as follows:

• All types of energy are needed for a lower emission and prosperous future, with:
  • Renewable energy capacity installation increasing at the fastest rate through 2050;
  • Coal is to decline the most; and
  • Natural gas and oil to make up more than 50% of the energy mix;
• Increasing living standards and urbanization in developing economies will result in a 25% increase in energy use, including as a result of increased rates of electrification, as well as increased use;
• The industrial and transport sectors underpin the world economy, and each sector will require increased supply of energy;
• CO2 emissions arising globally will fall by 25% by 2050, the affordability of decarbonization being determinative; and
• Sustaining investment in the natural gas and oil sectors will be more important than

• During September 2025, it was reported widely that, across the Australia National Electricity grid:
  • 8% of the electrical energy transmitted across the national grid was generated from renewable electrical energy; and
  • 6% of electrical energy generated from coal powered sources.
• During late September 2025 it was announced by TotalEnergies that it is to develop and to operate the 1.5 GW Centre Manche 2 offshore wind field (OWF) off the coast of Normandy, northern France. As announced, TotalEnergies will invest €4.5 billion in the development of the OWF.
• Also during late September 2025, the bp Energy Outlook – 2025 edition was
  • The headlines from the bp publication are as follows:

• Artificial Intelligence or AI applications are providing a new source of energy demand, including in markets in which demand growth for electrical energy has stalled or reduced;
• Energy efficiency improvements have not progressed at the rate hoped or needed, and has resulted in a lag in the progress in energy transition; and
• CO2 emission have not yet peaked: We are approaching the 10^th anniversary of the signature of The Paris Agreement in December 2015. If CO2 levels stay at current levels for the next 10 years, it will be "increasingly challenging" to stay "within a 2OC carbon budget".

The trends identified in the bp publication include the following:

• Energy Security continues to be a key focus of most countries across the world. While the trend is clear, the impact of the trend at a country-by-country level is different. A deeper dive on this trend, is recommended;
• Natural gas and oil production continues to grow year-on-year, with demand in China and in developing countries contributing to oil production and the growth in LNG production capacity, with no sign of a slowdown in the medium term and citing the bp publication: "global LNG exports are set to increase by more than half by 2035 relative to 2024";
• Low carbon energy continues to be a function of the increased development and deployment of photovoltaic solar and wind capacity, with increased development and deployment keeping pace with rising demand for electrical energy and is now being developed at a rate to displace non-renewable sources of electrical energy generation.

As recognized consistently, the challenge for the deployment of renewable electrical energy is the need to develop, augment and expand transmission and distribution systems and infrastructure.

• During the final week of September 2025, the Ministry of the Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China published its Progress Report on China's National Carbon Market. The Progress Report notes that that "National Carbon Market has become an essential tool in accelerating green transition in all aspects of economic and social development".

Further, the Progress Report notes that advancing the National Carbon Market is:

• a potent and cost-effective measure for achieving "Dual Carbon Goals";
• a crucial task in deepening reform in ecological conservation; and
• a vivid practice of supporting high-quality development with high-level

The Interim Regulations for the Management of Carbon Emission Trading entered into force in May 2024.

The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has worked to ensure effective implementation of the Interim Regulations. Under the Interim Regulations, Departmental Rules exist, in the form of Measures for the Administration of Carbon Emissions Trading and Measures for the Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading, with three sets of Supporting Guidelines under each of the Measures.

During October and November 2025, the following received considerable coverage reflected in the news items covered in Editions 36 and 37 of P2N0: [Note: We have not repeated new items arising from the stand- alone Key News Items Arising from COP30, covered in Edition 38 of P2N0]

• On October 6, 2025, it was reported widely that the Federal German Government had announced the provision of up to €6 billion in funding support to decarbonize the industrial sector, including, for the first time, to fund carbon capture and storage.

It is understood that the funding will be provided under 15-year contracts under which the Government will provide funding to support the industrial sector transitioning to low, lower and no carbon technologies. As reported, corporations and other organizations wishing to participate in the funding rounds for 2026 will have to register interest by December 1, 2025.

• On October 7, 2025, Ember reported (under Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025) that:

"... solar and wind outpaced the growth in the global electricity demand in the first half of 2025, resulting in a very small decline in [the use of] both coal and gas, compared to the same period last year".

In the context of the Ember report, Senior Electricity Analyst, Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka stated:

"We are seeing the first signs of a crucial turning point. Solar and wind are now growing fast enough to meet the world's growing appetite for electricity. This marks the beginning of a shift where clean power is keeping pace with demand growth".

• On October 7, 2025, the IEA published Renewables 2025 – Analysis and forecasts to 2030. The headline findings from the publication are as follows:
  • Global renewable electrical energy capacity is expected to increase to 4,600 GW by 2030, with photovoltaic solar capacity to account for 80% of the increase;
  • In the context of the long-identified need to triple renewable electrical energy capacity (reflected in the pledge arising from COP-28 in November 2023 to which 200 countries committed), the increase to 4,600 GW will fall short of tripling but may be regarded as keeping the tripling within stretching distance.
• On October 20, 2025, New Atlas (at com, under Amazon goes nuclear with new modular reactor plant) reported that Amazon Web Services (AWS) is to invest in restarting or developing nuclear power plants to provide reliable "around-the-clock" electrical energy to power its data centers. As reported, AWS is to use the X-Energy Xe-100 Small Modular Reactor (SMR) to be installed near the Energy Northwest Columbia Generating Station in the US State of Washington. The Xe-100 SMR is a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR)."
• On October 23, 2025, it was reported widely that Google had contracted in respect of electrical energy to be supplied from the Broadwing Energy project. As reported, the 400 MW Broadwing Energy project will be located at an existing industrial facility owned and operated by Archer Daniels Midland, Decatur, in the US State of Illinois, and will use carbon capture technology from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which is understood to be designed to capture up to 90% of the CO2 arising from combustion of natural This is a first for North America.

• On October 23, 2025, pv-magazine (at pv-magazine.com, under China expands highway solar as provinces races to decarbonize transport) reported that China is installing PV solar renewable electrical energy generation capacity along highways. As reported, as at the end of 2024, 1.7 GW of PV solar renewable electrical energy capacity had been installed. The China Academy of Transportation Sciences has estimated that up to 940 GW of PV solar capacity can be installed along transport networks across China.
• On October 28, 2025, it was reported widely that NextEra had signed a 25-year power purchase agreement with Google under which it will supply electrical energy from the Duane Arnold Energy Center in the US State of Iowa. As reported, reopening the power station will cost in the region of USD

1.6 billion.

• On October 28, 2025, Mr Bill Gates published an essay entitled Three tough truths about climate. At the start of the essay Mr Gates writes: "What to know:
  • Climate change is serious, but we've made great We need to keep backing the breakthroughs that will help the world reach zero emissions.
  • But we can't cut funding for health and development – programs that help people stay resilient in the face of climate change – to do it.
  • It's time to put human welfare at the center of our climate strategies, which includes reducing the Green Premium to zero and improving agriculture and health in poor countries."
• On October 31, 2025, it was reported widely that the Chair and CEO of ExxonMobil, Mr Darren Woods, had stated that ExxonMobil was in advanced talks with power providers and tech corporations to supply electrical energy from gas fired power plants at which carbon capture technology is

Technology corporations, including the hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft), seem to be positioning to contract for the supply of lower or lower carbon intensity electrical energy.

• On November 21, 2025, after publication in the Official Journal, Delegated Act on low-carbon hydrogen became law. The Delegated Act details the basis upon which hydrogen produced using non- renewable electrical energy (including grid electricity, and natural gas and nuclear generated electrical) can be characterized as low carbon, and as such qualify for funding from the
• On November 22, 2025, Global Times (at globaltimes.cn, under World's largest Hualong One nuclear power base successfully of State Grid) reported that No 2 Unit of Zhangzhou nuclear had connected to the State Grid. The connection of No 2 Unit is located within Hualong-I and marks the first step in the deployment of the Hualong-I reactor series in Shandong Province, China. Six reactor units are planned, but how long this will take is not known yet.
• On November 22, 2025, the UK Government (Department for Business and Trade and Department for Energy Security and New Zero) published The UK's Modern Industrial Strategy, Critical Minerals

The publication sets out:

"the UK's long term-term ambition for securing critical minerals and harnessing [the UK's] competitive advantage in recycling and innovative midstream processing – the transformation of mined or recycled materials into refined or upgraded forms suitable for manufacturing".

• On November 25, 2025, the businesstimes (at https://www.businesstimes.com, under Johor, Ditrolic Energy partner World Bank's IFC to develop US$ billion solar-and-storage hub to power JS-SEZ) reported on plans to develop a USD 6 billion solar-and-storage corridor to power the next phase of its industrial expansion. As reported, IFC, PDT and Ditrolic Energy have signed a collaboration letter, to provide a framework for the development of their project within the Southern Johor Renewable Energy Corridor (SJREC). The project will comprise 4 GW of photovoltaic solar capacity, and 5.12 GWh of BESS
• On November 26, 2025, Uniper announced that it had signed a framework agreement with thyssenkrupp Unde to allow Uniper to develop ammonia cracking plants using thyssenkrupp Unde technology. The development of the cracking plants will allow the dehydrogenation of ammonia imported by ammonia carriers delivering ammonia to Uniper's import terminal at

During December 2025, the following key news items were covered in Edition 39 of P2N0:

• On December 3, 2025, the European Commission published RESourceEU, the initiative of the EU to secure CM3 across the EU: Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, RESourceEU Action Plan Accelerating our critical raw materials strategy to adapt to a new

The RESourceEU Action Plan builds on the structure provided by the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). Under the Action Plan, during the first few months of 2026, the EC will establish the European Critical Raw Materials Centre and the Raw Materials Platform. These initiatives will facilitate assessment of demand, coordinate the purchase of raw materials and to arrange off-take agreements. For more detailed coverage of the Action Plan and CRMA, see Commission adopts RESourceEU to secure raw materials, reduce dependencies and boost competitiveness at https://ec.europa.eu.

• In early December 2025, it was reported widely that Yara is to capture up to 800,000 metric tonnes of CO2 annually from its Sluiskil plant, in the Netherlands. As reported, the plant produces ammonia and fertilizer, with CO2 arising from production to be captured, processed and treated, and liquified and transported for injection and storge in the Northern Lights Project.
• On December 8, 2025, CNBC (at cnbc.com, under NextEra working with Exxon to develop gigawatt data center for hyperscaler) reported that NextEra and ExxonMobil are working together to develop a data center to be powered by 1.2 GW gas-fired power plant, with the power plant to capture CO2 arising from the combustion of the natural gas, and the natural gas and carbon capture technology to be provided by ExxonMobil.
• On December 10, 2025, NextEra signed 11 renewable energy purchase agreements and two renewable energy storage agreements with Meta to supply 2.5 GW of renewable electrical energy to Meta across the United As reported, the renewable energy and renewable energy storage capacity are to be developed in phases, going live during 2026 to 2028.

Footnotes

1 By way of reminder, Article 2.1(a) of the Paris Agreement provides for "Holding the increase in the global average temperatures to well below 2OC above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5OC ..."

2 CM3 are:1.Bauxite,HighPurityAlumina,andAluminum;2.Antimony;3.Beryllium;4.Bismuth;5.Cobalt;6.Copper;7.Gallium;8.Germanium;9.Graphite;

10. Indium; Lithium; 12. Magnesium; 13. Manganese; 14. Nickel; 15. Niobium; 16. Platinum metals; 17. Rare Earths Elements (REEs); 18. Silicon and Silicon

metals; 19. Tantalum; 20. Titanium and Titanium metal; 21. Tungsten; 22. Uranium; and, 23. Vanadium.

3 REEs as: Cerium (Ce), Dysprosium (Dy), Erbium (Er), Europium (Eu), Gadolinium (Gd), Holmium (Ho), Lanthanum (La), Lutetium (Lu), Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr), Promethium (Pm), Samarium (Sm), Scandium (Sc), Terbium (Tb), Thulium (Tm), Ytterbium (Yb) and Yttrium (Y).

4 Ahead of 55th WEF, a number of publications were released, including the Global Risk Report 2025: Conflict, Environment and Disinformation Top Threats and Financing The Energy Transition Meeting a Rapidly Evolving Electricity Demand. Both these publications are excellent although the Financing the Energy Transition publication is worth a special mention. The Financing the Energy Transition publication considers the financing needs of each region, Africa, East and Southeast Asia, South Asia, Europe, Latin America and North America, and the proposed approach to the provision of finance.

5 The term levelized cost of electricity is used to provide a unit cost of electricity by reference to all of the costs and expenses arising and incurred across the life-span of generation capacity (including costs and expenses of development, operation (including any fuel costs) and maintenance, and decommissioning) used to generate that unit of electricity.

6 Our World In Data provides an excellent graph (Calculated by Our World in Data based on IRENA (2024)) which plots that in 2004 it took 1 year to install 1 GW and in 2023 it took 1 day to install 1 GW, of PV solar capacity around the world.

7 Hydrogen prolongs the period of time that other CH4 emissions stay in the climate system, and enhances ozone levels in the troposphere, with CH4 and ozone, by mass, being the second and third greatest GHG emission, after CO2.

8 Continued electrification to provide electrical energy to those without it; increasing populations of developing countries, with attendant increased urbanisation and prosperity (including as measured by ownership and use of electrical appliances); electrification and increased electrification of buildings (for electrical energy and heat); increased electrification of transportation, and the anticipated increase in the need for electrical energy to power, and to cool, data centres (with increased demand to store increased amounts of data, including resulting from AI).

9 Formally titled Communication from The Commission to the European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions – The Clean Industrial Deal: A joint roadmap for competitiveness and decarbonization.

10 The CSRD imposes obligations on corporations and other organizations to collect and to report data and information. These obligations relate to sustainability impacts arising from their activities, by reference to the EU Taxonomy. The corporations and other organizations subject to these obligations were large EU corporations (being entities with an annual turnover > €150 million) and listed SMEs and non-EU entities with significant EU turnover.

11 The CSDDD imposes obligations on corporations and other organizations (with certain characteristics, but not financial institutions) to assess impacts of their activities on the environment and on human rights along and arising from supply chains, and to address significant impacts arising from their supply chains. Assessing and addressing these impacts requires due diligence. The due diligence is required to be risk based and does not include an obligation to report on double materiality.

12

Changes to extent of CSRD and CSDDD
CSRD	CSDDD
EU entities with > 1,000 employees and > >>€50 million turnover or > €25 million assets must report	EU entities with > 1,000 employees and > €450 million turnover must report
Non-EU entities with > €450 million in the EU must report	Non-EU entities with > €450 million turnover in the EU must report
No sectoral ESRS reporting requirements in 2026, and after that unclear	· Due diligence five yearly, rather than annually · For the purposes of supply chain due diligence, may request sustainability data only from SMEs in supply chain

13 Formally titled Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directives 2006/43/EC, 2013/34/EU, (EU) 2022/2464 and (EU) 2024/1760 as regards certain corporate sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements.

14 The EEA States comprise the 27 EU Member States and the three European Free Trade Association Member States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway.

15 More broadly up to 10 GW of nuclear generating capacity may be expected by 2040.

16 2024 Global Carbon Budget report by Global Carbon Project.

17 Greenhouse Gas Protocol published by the World Resources Institute defines Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions as follows: Scope 1 Direct Emissions, being emissions that arise from sources owned or controlled by the corporation or other organization whose GHG emissions are being measured and Scope 2 Electrical Energy indirect GHG emissions being emissions that arise from the generation of electrical energy used by the corporation or other organizations. Scope 3 Other Indirect Emissions being emissions that arise as a consequence of the activities of the corporation or other organizations.

18 From the IEA Global Energy Review 2025, CO2 Emissions.

19 While there was support for the use of carbon credits to reduce the cost of decarbonisation, in the final analysis, the EU is allowing for a possible limited use of high-quality carbon credits to discharge liability arising under the EU ETS (commencing in 2026). This approach is consistent with thinking around the world: the EU ETS is intended to place a price on carbon that provides an incentive for corporations and other organisations to adopt lower, low and no carbon technologies so as decarbonize their activities (to achieve actual avoidance, reduction and removal) of GHG emissions, with carbon credits to be used to offset activities that cannot be decarbonised.

20 In addition, among other things, the EC published: Commission Recommendation on tax incentives to support the Clean Industrial Deal in light of the

Clean Industrial Deal State aid Framework; and Commission Recommendation on Innovative Renewables, Grid Infrastructure, and Future-Proof Network Charges.

21 On July 12, 2025, the EU decided not to allow offsets until 2036 at the earliest. The stated policy driver for this was that lower, low and no carbon technologies should be maximized, and only those activities that could not be decarbonized should be able to offset.

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