On September 15, 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced the release of the American Biofuels Trade Outlook, “a plan that builds upon 2025’s record U.S. ethanol export performance, removes restrictions to American biofuels, and secures new market opportunities for U.S. farmers.” According to USDA, during the past two years, U.S. ethanol exports reached new volume and value records, fueled by growing global ethanol import demand and reduced competition from Brazil, the world’s second-largest ethanol exporter. USDA states that top ethanol-importing markets like Canada, the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), India, Colombia, and the Philippines increased ethanol consumption, driving global import demand higher, while strong domestic fuel ethanol demand in Brazil reduced exportable supplies and raised domestic prices, “allowing the United States to increase export share to a growing market.” USDA notes that while 2026 U.S. ethanol exports are ahead of last year’s pace through June, “there are a handful of wildcards that could greatly impact exports throughout the rest of the year.” These include changing U.S. and global biofuel policies, the emergence and implementation of new trade agreements, and the impacts of high energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.
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