BlackRock recently issued a report exploring additional signs of the rebound in private markets. I found several pieces of the data presented highly encouraging and validating beyond speculation that the logjam is clearing for private equity.
While a well-known data point, private equity deal activity was up in 2024 by 21% year-over-year and is outpacing pre-pandemic averages by 45%.
Even more validating from the read were some compelling data points on both market exits and entry. Of particular note:
- Distributions outpaced capital calls for the first time
in eight years, driven by increased efforts by private
equity sponsors (GPs) to return capital and a more active exit
environment.
- Additionally, global quarterly exit values are settling in closer to pre-pandemic averages, providing much-needed stability for the market.
- From a PE-backed IPO perspective, activity levels in the third quarter delivered the highest sponsor-backed proceeds since 2021. In 2024, nearly 70% of IPOs launched above their issue price, with an average return of 25%.
- In terms of entry, purchase price multiple spreads between the S&P 500 and global private equity EV / EBITDA continues to grow in favor of PE discounts, with the S&P outpacing PE by 2.8x in 2024 and 3.8x year-to-date in 2025. This trend bodes well for increased private equity investment, further greasing the skids for the ensuing rebound.
Coupled with Riveron's own real-time experience demonstrating increased public-take-privates, carveouts, traditional buy-side and sell-side due diligence processes, and potential IPO readiness exercises, perhaps we truly are in store for an increasingly favorable 2025 and beyond.
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