This Month's Capital Snapshot Deck Includes:
- Recent major developments in politics, including vacant congressional seats, and approvals/favorability of President Trump and the two major political parties
- President Trump's White House and administration appointments
- Overview of the 119th Congress, including party breakdown of each chamber, the upcoming congressional schedules, and key dates
- An overview of the Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 continuing resolution and the state of play for FY26 federal appropriations
- A recap of where things stand with congressional Republican planning for reconciliation
- Legislative and policy updates across a variety of key policy areas
- Economic factors that could impact the future political landscape
Recent Major Developments in Politics
Senator Gary Peters Announces His Retirement
- On January 28, 2025, Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) announced he will not run for reelection to his U.S. Senate seat in 2026. He will serve the remainder of his term over the next two years, however.
- Senator Peters has served in Congress since January 2009, first in the U.S. House from 2009 to 2015, and then as a U.S. senator from Michigan since January 2015. He is currently the senior U.S. senator from Michigan.
- The senator is the Ranking Member of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC), after previously serving as Chair when the Democrats held the Senate majority.
- Electoral Impact: Senator Peters'
retirement creates an open seat race in one of the closest
battleground swing states in the country. President Trump won
Michigan by 1.4% in 2024, and Michigan's new senator, Sen.
Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), only won by 0.3% in 2024.
- The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) identified this race as one of its top targets for 2026.
- The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is confident in its deep Democratic bench in Michigan that includes U.S. Reps. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-MI) and Haley Stevens (D-MI), Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow.
- Race rating: Toss-up
Senator Tina Smith Announces Her Retirement
- On February 13, 2025, Senator Tina Smith (D-MN) announced she will not run for reelection to her U.S. Senate seat in 2026. She will serve the remainder of her term over the next two years, however.
- Senator Smith has served in in the U.S. Senate since January 2018 – she was appointed to this seat when she was lieutenant governor of Minnesota after the resignation of former Senator Al Franken (D-MN). She then won a special election to retain her seat later in 2018, and then won a full six-year term in November 2020. She is currently the junior U.S. senator from Minnesota.
- Electoral Impact: Senator Smith's
retirement creates another open seat race in a competitive state,
though Minnesota does lean Democratic. President Trump only lost
Minnesota in 2024 by 4.3%; Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) won the
state by nearly 16% in 2024.
- The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) identified this race as one of its targets for 2026.
- The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is
optimistic due to a deep candidate pool in Minnesota, including:
- Current Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) has already announced her candidacy for this Senate seat, as has former Minnesota State Senator Melisa López Franzen (D-MN).
- Additionally, U.S. Reps. Angie Craig (D-MN) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN) have expressed interest in potentially running, as has Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D), who was previously a U.S. congressman from Minnesota's 5th district from 2007-2019.
- Race rating: Lean D
Senator Jeanne Shaheen Announces Her Retirement
- On March 12, 2025, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) announced she will not run for reelection to her U.S. Senate seat in 2026, becoming the third incumbent Democratic senator in just the last two months to do so. She plans to serve the remainder of her term.
- Senator Shaheen served in in the U.S. Senate since January 2009. She previously served as governor of New Hampshire from 1997 to 2003 and currently is the senior senator from New Hampshire. She made history as the first woman elected as governor of New Hampshire and was also the first woman in American history to serve as both governor and senator.
- Electoral Impact: Senator Shaheen's
retirement creates yet another open seat race in a competitive
state, though New Hampshire leans somewhat Democratic. President
Trump lost New Hampshire in 2024 by 2.8%, and New Hampshire has had
a Republican governor since 2017.
- The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) identified this race as one of its targets for 2026.
- Democrats feel they have a good chance to retain this seat in
2026:
- U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH), who has represented New Hampshire's 1st congressional district since 2019, has expressed interest in running for this U.S. Senate seat.
- Additionally, former U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster (D-NH), who represented New Hampshire's 1st congressional district from 2013 to 2025, has said she would consider running if Rep. Pappas decided to not run.
- On the Republican side, former U.S. senator from Massachusetts Scott Brown is considering running. Former New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu is also considering the race.
- Race rating: Lean D
Congressman Sylvester Turner Passes Away
- On March 5, 2025, the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX-18) passed away after a brief illness.
- Prior to being elected to serve in the House, he was the mayor of Houston from 2016 to 2024.
- Before becoming mayor, Rep. Turner was a member of the Texas State House of Representatives from 1989 to 2016.
- Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) has not announced a date for a special election to fill the seat yet.
Congressman Raúl Grijalva Passes Away
- On March 13, 2025, the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ-7) passed away due to complications of treatments for lung cancer.
- Mr. Grijalva served in the U.S. House since 2003, representing southern Arizona, including parts of Tucson.
- He was the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus from 2009 to 2019 and was the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee from 2015 to 2025, serving as chair from 2019 to 2023.
- Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs (D) announced that a special election to fill the U.S. House seat for AZ-7 will take place on September 23, 2025, with a primary election to be held on July 15, 2025.
- The deaths of the late Reps. Turner and Grijalva mean the party breakdown of the House now stands at 218-213, with four vacancies.
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