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Current House – 119th Congress
- Republicans currently hold a narrow majority (219 Republicans - 213 Democrats), which is just a two -vote majority.
- The House currently has three vacancies:
- The House currently has three vacancies: – Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX-18) passed away on March 5, 2025
- Special election November 4, 2025 (Safe D )
- Rep. -elect Adelita Grijalva (D -AZ -7) won her late father's seat (the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva) in a special election on September 23, 2025, but the Rep. -elect has not been sworn in yet.
- Rep. Mark Green (R -TN -7) retired on July 20, 2025. Special election December 2, 2025 (Likely to Safe R )
- Likely outcome after all special elections are held: 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, which would be a two -vote GOP majority.
Current Senate – 119th Congress
- Republicans currently hold a 53 -47 majority, which is the same majority they held when they last controlled the Senate (January 2021).
- Two independent Senators caucus with Democrats: Senator Angus King (I -ME) and Senator Bernie Sanders (I -VT).
- Vice President J.D. Vance, who also serves as the Senate
President, can cast a tie -breaking vote if the final vote on any
legislation or nominee is tied at 50 -50.
- Since assuming the office, Vice President Vance has cast seven tie -breaking votes, including on final Senate passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) (P.L. No: 119-21).
- Former Vice President Kamala Harris holds the record for most Senate tie -breaking votes, with 33, including on final passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (P.L. No: 117-169).
Mid-Decade Redistricting Updates
Congressional Redistricting – Texas
- On August 29, 2025, Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) signed a new congressional map into law that is expected to add up to five new Republican seats, shifting the map from 25R - 13D to 30R - 8D. The map will take effect immediately and will be implemented for the 2026 midterm elections.
- The map endangers several Democratic incumbents. Key
developments include:
- One Austin district (from two) meaning Reps. Greg Casar (D-TX) and Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) would face each other in a primary.
- Two Dallas area districts (from three), currently held by Reps. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) and Marc Veasey (D-TX), leaving Rep. Julie Johnson (D-TX) without a seat to run in.
- Of note, Rep. Veasey is from Fort Worth, and his new district would be entirely Dallas-based. If he chooses to retire because of this, then Rep. Johnson may have a seat to run in.
- Three Houston area districts (from four). Following late Rep. Sylvester Turner's (D-TX) passing earlier this year, the current Democratic incumbents – Reps. Lizzie Fletcher (D-TX), Al Green (D-TX), and Sylvia Garcia (D-TX) – will all have a district to run in for 2026.
- Expands the Republican base in two South Texas districts. TX-28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX)) would move from Trump +7.3 to Trump +10.4, and TX-34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX)) would move from Trump +4.5 to Trump +10.1.
- Currently, the five new Republican seats are rated as: 2 Safe R, 1 Likely R, 1 Leans R, and 1 Toss-Up
Congressional Redistricting – Missouri
- On September 28, 2025, Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe (R) signed a new congressional map for the state into law. The map is set to take effect ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
- The new map eliminates the current configuration of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's (D-MO) Kansas City-based MO-5 seat, flipping it from Safe D to Safe R, and bringing the state's congressional delegation from 6R – 2D to 7R – 1D.
- The map also shores up Rep. Ann Wagner's MO-2 seat in the St. Louis suburbs and exurbs, changing her seat from Likely R to Safe R.
- While the new map is set to be in effect for the 2026 midterms, there are several lawsuits that could ultimately delay or even potentially cancel implementation, though the latter is unlikely.
- There is also an organization that is circulating a petition to put the map up to a statewide vote. If enough signatures are gathered, the new map could not become operative until there is a statewide vote on it, likely pushing implementation to 2028.
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