In June 2007, the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineers International (AACE) published its Recommended Practice on Forensic Schedule Analysis (RPFSA)1. The RPFSA comprises 105 pages and was prepared by over 20 contributing authors. The purpose of the RPFSA is to provide a single technical reference for the forensic application of CPM scheduling. Through use of this single technical reference, it is hoped that the degree of subjectivity involved in current CPM schedule analysis will be reduced. The RPFSA is focused on minimizing subjectivity by defining terminology, identifying currently used forensic scheduling methodologies, and setting protocols for the use of these methodologies. As stated in the RPFSA, "By describing uniform procedures that increase transparency of the analysis method and the analyst's thought process, the guidelines established herein will increase accountability and testability of an opinion and minimize the need to contend with 'black box' or 'voodoo' analyses." 2

A recurring criticism of forensic scheduling has been that, despite that two independent experts can use the same scheduling data and records and, in fact, the same methodology, they can arrive at two completely different conclusions. We asked Peter Duggan of the Duggan Rhodes Group, a recognized expert in the field of CPM scheduling, whether the RPFSA could be expected to inject more science and objectivity into forensic schedule analysis. Peter responded:

I think the RPFSA may separate the true scientific scheduling experts from the rest. Unfortunately, the scheduling expert industry has no barrier to entry. As a result, there are a lot of people, with minimal experience, acting as if they are 'forensic scheduling experts'. For these people, following the RPFSA will definitely inject more science and objectivity into the analysis.

The RPFSA includes the following items of particular interest:

  • The RPFSA is not intended to override the parties' contract regarding schedule analysis methods. The RPFSA does note, however, that contractually specified schedule analysis methods may be appropriate for use during the project in a prospective mode but may be inappropriate for retrospective use (the hallmark of forensic analysis).

  • The implementation of the Time Impact Analysis (TIA) has a bewildering array of regional variations. Current use of the terms 'Time Impact Analysis' and 'Windows Analysis' is loose and undisciplined throughout the industry.

  • Forensic schedule analysis is a technical field that is related to, but distinct from, project planning and scheduling. Forensic analysis is not a subset of planning and scheduling.

  • Standards and protocols that may be sufficient for project planning and scheduling may not necessarily be adequate for forensic schedule analysis; and

  • No forensic schedule analysis is exact. The level of accuracy of the answers produced by each method is a function of the quality of the data used, the accuracy of the assumptions and the subject judgments made by the forensic schedule analyst.

The RPFSA identifies 15 different forensic schedule analysis methodologies and sets forth the distinguishing characteristics of these methodologies. Without endorsing any one in particular, the RPFSA outlines recommended validation processes for each methodology. The RPFSA also provides a listing of the key strengths and weaknesses of each methodology, and further provides a description of the implementation of each methodology. The purpose for providing all of this information is to allow greater outside examination and scrutiny of the process and product employed by the analyst in reaching his or her opinions.

So, what does this new set of scheduling protocols mean to you, the contractor? With respect to planning and scheduling your next project, the new protocols are not expected to have much, if any, effect. Given that the protocols were developed to standardize forensic scheduling - a retrospective exercise - the protocols necessarily will not be used on any regular basis prospectively to manage a project. By contrast, the protocols may be expected to affect the manner in which contractors (and their attorneys and consultants) either prepare and support their time related claims, or defend against such claims leveled against them.

Footnotes

1. AACE International Recommended Practice No. 29R-03, Forensic Schedule Analysis, TCM Framework: 6.4 Forensic Performance Assessment. The RPFSA can be found on the AACE's website: www.aacei.org.

2. RPFSA at p. 8.