What We're Watching Today is 1,297 words and an 8-minute read.
Global
Trump urges urgent ceasefire in Ukraine
US President-elect Donald Trump urged an immediate Ukraine-Russia ceasefire and talks to end "the madness," following his first meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy in Paris, as both sides outlined their conditions.
Our Take: Trump's call for a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire reflects a significant early effort by the incoming president to influence global diplomacy. His engagement signals a likely shift in US policy toward prioritizing negotiations, contrasting with the outgoing administration's military support for Ukraine. Both Moscow and Kyiv have responded cautiously, highlighting the complexities of balancing peace with territorial sovereignty and regional security concerns. This development could redefine NATO's role and shape the geopolitical landscape, but it also raises questions about the durability of any agreement reached under Trump's proposed framework.
Read More: Associated Press, Politico, Responsible Statecraft
Europe
Romanian elections canceled as Russian influence campaign is uncovered
Romania canceled the second-round runoff election for the country's next president after deciding that the first round was compromised by a Russian influence operation to control the result.
Our Take: Romanian election officials judged that one of the two runoff candidates, far-right dark horse candidate Călin Georgescu, was catapulted to his current position by a coordinated Russian influence campaign. Largely unknown prior to last month, Georgescu shot to national prominence after some 25,000 thousand new pro- Georgescu TikTok accounts flooded social media with politician content. The election was seen as a battle between East and West, and Georgescu had expressed admiration for Russia and for Romania's fascist past. Romanian and US intelligence now judge that the accounts were part of an influence campaign that included "aggressive hybrid attacks" by Russia. Incumbent president Iohannis declassified intelligence around the campaign, called off elections and is extending his term, causing chaos in the country in risking shaking the confidence of Romanian voters.
Read More: Politico, Wall Street Journal [paywall]
Middle East
Syrian regime falls
The Syrian regime has decisively fallen after rebels took Damascus over the weekend and ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad landed in Moscow, where he is reportedly seeking asylum.
Our Take: The fall of the Assad dynasty - which ruled Syria for half a century – came rapidly over the last week, with rebels making shock advances to take a string of key Syrian cities over the course of just a week in a resurgence of fighting in Syria's 13-year-old civil war. Fighting flared last week amid new skirmishes between regime forces and the Syrian rebels, which had mostly holed up in the country's north for the last decade. Rebels managed to overcome pro-government forces due to the decade-long degradation of the government, which controlled the country but did not manage to thrive, and a lack of support from Russia, which bolstered the Assad regime in the early 2010s, but last week was occupied in Ukraine. The US and Europe have welcomed Assad's fall, although outside observers now fear a power vacuum as a loose coalition of rebels vie for ultimate authority, or that the country could be controlled by the largest rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which the US and others considers a terrorist group.
Read More: Reuters, The Washington Post [paywall], The Economist [paywall]
Americas
Mexico doubles down on US border priorities to protect USMCA
Mexico's deputy economic minister said the country is doing "everything it can" to protect the USMCA, including ramping up efforts to stem the flow of fentanyl and migrants through the southern border.
Our Take: The comments come amid fears of a trade tussle between the US and Mexico, as President-elect Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on both Canada and Mexico if they do not do more to curb the drug trade and illegal immigration. In addition, the US has ramped up pressure on Mexico to do more to stop the backdoor entry of restricted Chinese goods into the US under a provision allowing goods that are sufficiently changed in USMCA countries to be considered domestically produced and benefit from lowered trade barriers. Mexico's comments reflect a newly articulated willingness to align with the US on the China issue and others in order to protect the USMCA, which is set to be renegotiated in 2026 and the ending of which would decimate the Mexican economy.
Read More: Reuters, Brookings Institution, Global Trade Review, Wall Street Journal [paywall]
Asia-Pacific
Modi's BJP claims US State Department is targeting India
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) accused the US State Department and "deep state" actors, alongside investigative journalists and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, of attempting to destabilize India, despite strong US-India relations in recent decades.
Our Take: The BJP's accusations of US interference indicate tensions amid an otherwise strong bilateral relationship between India and the US. This development underscores domestic political sensitivities in India, particularly regarding foreign influence narratives, as well as the BJP's efforts to counter opposition criticisms. While unlikely to derail broader cooperation, such claims could complicate public perceptions and political engagement, particularly in the context of shared security and trade priorities. The allegations also reflect broader geopolitical currents, including India's balancing act between major powers, namely the US, Russia, and China.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], NDTV, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Trade and Compliance
EU fails to reach agreement on 15th Russia sanctions package amid business loophole dispute
EU negotiators failed to finalize new sanctions targeting companies and oil tankers aiding Russia, as Latvia and Lithuania opposed provisions allowing Western firms to continue operating in Russia despite existing restrictions.
Our Take: The breakdown in negotiations over the EU's 15th sanctions package shows persistent divisions within the bloc, particularly over balancing economic interests with geopolitical strategy. Latvia and Lithuania's opposition stresses concerns about loopholes undermining the EU's unified stance on Russia, while other members like Germany and France appear reluctant to close exemptions that impact business operations. This impasse reflects broader tensions in reconciling economic dependencies with political commitments, potentially delaying further action against entities supporting Russia's war effort. The next round of talks could serve as a key indicator of the EU's ability to maintain cohesion on sanctions policy.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], Politico, Bloomberg [paywall]
Climate Change
New study shows more young people dying of extreme heat than older adults
A surprising Mexico study found that at higher temperatures and humidity, extreme heat killed far more young people under 35 than those older than 50.
Our Take: The finding, which looks at temperature-related deaths in Mexico from 1998 to 2019, found that nine times as many adults aged 18 to 35 died in heat waves than adults older than 50. Researchers currently theorize that this may be because outdoor workers, who cannot escape the heat, are more likely to be younger, and that young people do not know their limits. This subverts decades of conventional thinking around heat-related deaths, and, if replicated, could require significant changes to nascent efforts to establish best practices to avoid heat-related injury and death.
Read More: Associated Press, New York Times [paywall], NPR
ESG
Climate change-hit countries call for more lenient credit ratings
A group of climate vulnerable nations is planning to raise a credit ratings overhaul, arguing ratings should reflect climate resilience measures, at an upcoming UN planning meeting in New York for a 2025 finance conference.
Our Take: The 39 so-called Small Island Developing States (SIDS) - including Cuba, Haiti, Fiji and the Maldives – are especially vulnerable to damaging climate-related events, and argue that the current ratings system undermines their ability to raise funds because it focuses on the potential economic damage from their exposure to the effects of climate change. Ways to get climate-vulnerable nations easier access to financing has long been a focus of UN climate talks, and this may be a way to ease the path.
Read More: Reuters, DW, Council on Foreign Relations
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