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GLP‑1 is a real, growing headwind for snacks
GLP‑1 drugs are driving a seismic shift in how Americans eat - and the U.S. snacking market sits at the epicenter. And it's not surprising why: 2 in 5 adults have obesity, and nearly 3 in 4 are overweight or obese, representing a large and motivated addressable market.1
Today, 1 in 8 U.S. adults already report taking a GLP‑1 like Ozempic, Wegovy, or Mounjaro.2 Most forecasts suggest this penetration will roughly double over the next decade as prices fall, coverage expands, and pills replace injections.
2 in 5 adults have obesity and nearly 3 in 4 are overweight or obese, representing a large and motivated addressable market
But doubling is only the tip of the iceberg. Just as important is the shift in who is taking these drugs. Today, more than 60% of GLP‑1 users take the medicine to help manage diabetes and cardiovascular risk, and fewer than 40% use it exclusively for weight loss.3 That mix is shifting rapidly, with weight‑loss‑motivated users expected to become the majority over the coming years. When you combine an expected doubling of total users with this mix shift, the weight‑loss cohort – the people most likely to change what and how much they eat – nearly triples over the coming decade.
The people most likely to change what and how much they eat is expected to nearly triple over the coming decade
This matters because it is this weight‑loss cohort that is actively trying to eat less. GLP‑1s blunt the brain’s reward response to hyperpalatable foods and make casual grazing less appealing. Purchase data show GLP‑1 households cutting grocery spending by 5-6% within six months, with savory snacks down about 11% and sweet baked goods down around 7%, while spending tilts toward protein, fiber, and fresh produce.4 Users skip more meals, trim “auto‑pilot” snacking occasions, and reshape what the whole household buys, not just what the patient eats. For brands built around salty, sweet, and impulsive, that combination – more users, more weight‑loss users, and sharper cuts in snacking occasions – is a genuine structural headwind.
Why GLP‑1 is not an existential threat
As Mark Twain might say, the rumors of snacks’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. Yes, GLP‑1s are a real headwind, but they are not an existential threat and for good reason.
The first reason is churn. A meaningful share of users do not stay on these drugs long term; well over half of non‑diabetic users discontinue within about a year as cost, side effects, or access convince them to throw in the towel. When they do, their grocery baskets drift back toward old patterns, with indulgent categories like candy, baked goods, and salty snacks often among the first to rebound. GLP‑1s suppress demand while people are on them, but they do not permanently erase the snacking occasion.
GLP‑1s suppress demand while people are on them, but they do not permanently erase the snacking occasion
The second reason is that GLP‑1s are one of several volume headwinds, not the main event. Snack and packaged food companies are also wrestling with inflation, stretched wallets, post‑COVID behavior shifts, and demographics that all weigh on units. That’s why leading executives sound measured, not panicked. PepsiCo has emphasized that it sees more opportunity than threat, pointing to a portfolio where the majority of its U.S. food business is already in single‑serve formats that fit smaller appetites. Mondelez has suggested that even in a more extreme scenario, GLP‑1s would trim volumes by only a low single‑digit percentage over a decade – not ideal, but hardly existential.
Lastly, exposure is highly uneven across regions and categories, which further undercuts the “snackpocalypse” narrative. U.S.‑heavy, indulgence‑centric players carry more GLP‑1 risk because they sell exactly what weight‑loss users are trying to cut: chips, candy, and other calorie‑dense treats. Global players with more revenue outside the U.S. and more diversified portfolios see a smaller direct hit and have more levers – price, mix, innovation – to absorb it.
Innovation will determine the winners
This is not to say, “don’t worry, be happy” – quite the contrary. There is real work ahead for the snack food industry. Surviving and thriving in a GLP‑1 era will require a shift in mindset from how to sell more to how to stay in the basket when people eat less. Snack and packaged food companies don’t need a new playbook, but they do need to redeploy a familiar one. They have already navigated low‑fat, low‑carb, organic, non‑GMO, and “better‑for‑you” waves by innovating their way through disruption rather than denying it.
Surviving and thriving in a GLP-1 era will require a shift in mindset from how to sell more to how to stay in the basket when people eat less.
We can already see that innovation muscle flexing. Brands are leaning into smaller packs and more single‑serve formats to match fewer snacking occasions and compressed appetites. They are expanding higher‑protein snacks for consumers who want to preserve muscle mass while losing weight, and higher‑fiber and gut‑health offerings to address constipation and digestive discomfort, through fiber‑forward snacks and prebiotic beverages. Hydration platforms – enhanced waters, electrolytes, and powders – are benefiting as GLP‑1 users cut back on alcohol and manage dehydration. Some companies are signaling that products are “GLP‑1 friendly” with new on‑pack callouts, while others are formulating entire lines tailored to the nutritional needs of GLP‑1 users, such as Nestlé’s Vital Pursuit frozen meals.
In summary, GLP‑1s are part of a broader seismic shift in how Americans eat, not the end of snacking as we know it. They will cap volume growth for indulgent, calorie‑dense products, especially in the U.S., but they also create a sizable demand pool for snacks and meals that help users feel satisfied, nourished, and on track with their treatment. The brands that recognize this shift early and lean into innovation will be positioned to grow alongside a tripling of the weight‑loss cohort. Those companies that don’t risk ending up on the wrong side of this fault line.
Footnotes
1. NIDDK overweight & obesity stats (NHANES 2017–2018).
2. KFF, “KFF Health Tracking Poll – May 2024: The Public’s Use and Views of GLP-1 Drugs,” May 9, 2024.
3. KFF, “KFF Health Tracking Poll – May 2024: The Public’s Use and Views of GLP-1 Drugs,” May 9, 2024.
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