Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on September 26, 2024.
Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.
Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:
- Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
- Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
- Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
- Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.
If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.
THIS WEEK'S CASES
There are 21 leave application decisions coming out on September 26, 2024. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 21 cases in which we'll give a prediction.
You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.
Possible Contenders
His Majesty the King in Right of Ontario v Kathryn Roberston by her estate representative Allison Gaanderse
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 12% chance of getting leave.
Trevor Hannan v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.
Duc Tung Hoang v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 8% chance of getting leave.
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.
City of Vancouver v Pender Lodge Holdings Ltd
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.
Eric Holder v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.
Unlikely Contenders
Saskatchewan Power Corporation v Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.
Sproule Lumber, a division of JD Irving, Limited v United Food and Commercial Workers Union Canada, Local 864
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.
Ruediger Martin Graaf v Atkinsréalis Group Inc (formerly known as SNC-Lavalin Group Inc)
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.
Nicholas Doering v His Majesty the King (Ont) (Criminal) (By Leave) (41302)
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.
John Peters v AtkinsRealis Group Inc (previously known as SNC-Lavalin Group Inc)
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.
Trustees of the Drywall Acoustic Lathing and Insulation Local 675 Pension Fund and Royce Lee v Barrick Gold Corporation, Aaron W Regent, Jamie C Sokalsky, Ammar Al-Joundi and Peter Kinver
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.
RC Limited Partner Inc v His Majesty the King in Right of the Province of British Columbia
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Rakesh Kumar Sidhu v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Defense Construction Canada v Atwill-Morin Group Inc
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Lily Monier, Stéphane Blais, Richard Girgis, Denis Larrivée, Sonia Grewal v Attorney General of Québec
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.
Long-Shots
Darryl Byrd v Douglas K. Murdoch, as Trustee of The Douglas K. Murdoch Revocable Trust
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
OZ Optics Ltd v Emond Harnden LLP
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Karl Anthony Wilson v Department of Social Development
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Mahmoud Zaerian v His Majesty the King in Right of Ontario
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Paul Veeken v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.