Opposition groups on 17 July announced plans to go ahead with mass anti-government protests, despite the government's granting of some political concessions.
The concessions include parliamentary debate on repealing the repressive Public Order Act, which allows police to break up all outdoor gatherings. The government has said that the Societies Act would also be repealed. This would allow the popular, but unregistered, Safina Party to stand at elections. President Daniel arap Moi had refused to register Safina because the name means Noah's Ark in Swahili. The Societies Act bans any party that uses a religious name.
The opposition umbrella group National Convention Executive Committee welcomed the planned reforms, but said that mass protests would continue. The next major protest is planned for 26 July in the port city of Mombasa. This will be followed on 8 August by a national day of action that will include a call for a general strike.
Security implications
The broadening of the campaign to Mombasa is an important development that could see violence occurring in a city that is dependent on tourism. Richard Leakey, secretary-general of Safina, warned that the opposition expects the Mombasa protests to be violent, particularly if the police use harsh measures to break up demonstrations.
The likely participation of Mombasa's large Muslim population in the demonstrations raises the risk of violence. Local radical Islamic preacher Sheikh Khalid Balala, who was allowed back into the country in early July after a two-year exile, has warned of trouble in Mombasa and urged his supporters to boycott the elections. Khalid also said that his Muslim followers would take part in protests and publicly burn their voter registration cards. Khalid's call for a boycott runs counter to the wishes of most other opposition groups. His stance indicates the fragile nature of the current opposition alliance.
The nature of the 8 August day of action is unclear, but widespread protests are likely. Opposition groups may not have the power to call out the workforce on a general strike, but many people will stay at home to avoid trouble.
Meanwhile, rioting polytechnic students in Nairobi have maintained the momentum of the anti-government campaign. Stone-throwing polytechnic students took to the streets of Nairobi on 14 July, erecting burning barricades along Haile Selassie Avenue. The police stormed the polytechnic campus on 14 July and injured five students. Students on 15 July again demonstrated on Haile Selassie Avenue. The police contained the protest, but did not disperse the students.
Political implications
The opposition will be encouraged that it has managed to force concessions from Moi before the elections that will take place later in 1997. However, it remains unclear if the concessions will only be discussed in parliament or whether they will pass through the legislative process as law. Moi told church leaders on 15 July that he was only willing to consider legislation on reforms during the next parliament, after the elections are held.
Continuing opposition action puts serious pressure on Moi, who must decide if he can maintain the status quo before the polls or risk weakening his position by allowing constitutional reforms before the elections.
Implications for foreigners
Political violence is likely to continue as the elections approach. The planned 26 July Mombasa rally and the 8 August day of action will be potential flashpoints. Protesters will not directly target foreigners in Mombasa, though the expected violence may disrupt transport, tourism and business activities. Many businesses in Nairobi and Mombasa are likely to close down on 8 August.
Travel implications
Visitors should avoid all public gatherings and should remain inside hotels during protests, marches or rioting. Islamic protesters in Mombasa are likely to mount demonstrations on Fridays leading up to the polls. Visitors to Mombasa should avoid the city on 26 July and remain inside hotels. Most business-class hotels are several miles north and south of Mombasa and there is no reason why the protest should affect visitors. Several journalists were beaten with batons during rioting in recent weeks. The much-feared paramilitary General Service Unit (GSU) is being used to quell clashes. The GSU has been known to assault foreigners unwittingly caught up in protests
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