However, the AEX has risen sharply in the first 1996 half, thanks to the economic upturn and strong demand for shares. The index added 15 percent while the MidCap index of medium capitalized stocks advanced 46 percent. Turnover levels displayed a similar trend. Turnover battered through the thousand billion guilder barrier as early as June (on the 27th) an increase of 48 percent compared with the previous year. The sharp rise in the number of transactions served to strengthen the impression that private investors are turning to the stock exchange more than ever before.
IMPRESSIVE TURNOVER LEVELS
Turnover trends on the Amsterdam Exchanges NV were highly satisfactory. Share turnover in June rose to 44.5 billion guilders compared with 31.6 billion guilders in the year-earlier month and 55.9 billion in May. Bond turnover amounted to 105.8 billion guilders, compared with 79.6 billion guilders a year earlier and 120.3 billion guilders in May. Total turnover in June amounted to 150.6 billion, up from 111.5 billion guilders in June 1995 and compared to 176.9 billion in May.
Turnover levels over the last six months show a similar picture. Particularly in the early months of the year the turnover levels were extremely high, mainly due to a world wide hunger for shares and substantially higher share prices. In the first half of the year total turnover already topped 1,000 billion guilders (NLG 1011.6 billion). Two years ago it would have taken a year to reach this level of turnover. Last year total turnover over the first half amounted to 685.5 billion guilders. All in all share turnover has mushroomed a hefty 80 percent (314.4 billion guilders), while bond turnover has risen by 30 percent (693.6 billion guilders).
ROYAL DUTCH THE MOST TRADED
The traditional relationship between the various issues were restored. While electronics giant Philips was the most frequently traded stock in 1995, in the first 1996 half Royal Dutch Petroleum booked the highest effective turnover (shares multiplied by guilders). It should be noted however that Royal Dutch shares increased in value, while Philips shares fell.
SHARE PRICES IN JUNE
Share price trends in June followed a wave pattern. Initially prices rose, leading to a new record intra-day high of 572.50 on June 6, that was never bettered. Share prices subsequently continued to hover around the 560 points mark (60.33). The main reason behind the stagnation was the negative sentiment on the guilder bond market and the wait-and-see stance adopted by investors. Nevertheless some stocks showed significant share price gains, with the Amsterdam MidCap index advancing by four percent. Small and medium-sized firms in the securities sector performed particularly well, with Kempen & Co rising some 18 percent. Broker Van der Moolen advanced eight percent, while securities houses Van der Hoop and AOT both rose six percent. Trading concern Ceteco Holding topped the charts with a 27 percent hike in its share price.
SHARE PRICE TRENDS OVER THE FIRST 1996 HALF
Share prices showed major gains in the first half year. The Amsterdam EOE index climbed 15 percent and the Amsterdam MidCap index jumped even higher, by 46 percent. Figures from the central bureau of statistics CBS showed that in terms of sectors national market issues posted the biggest gains -- 23 percent. Internationals lagged furthest behind with modest gains of 13 percent, due in part to the fall in the price of Philips shares over the last six months. The CBS sub index for financials rose 19 percent and as such lagged a little behind the spectacular share price gains booked by companies such as Aegon and Fortis Amev in 1995. Gainers far outnumbered losers over the first six months of 1996. The biggest gainer was sea-tug and salvage firm Smit Internationale, which jumped by 124 percent. Most in demand among the most actively traded issues were Randstad (+64 percent), Hagemeyer (+43 percent), Ahold (up 37 percent), Nutricia (+37 percent) and Heineken (up 31 percent).
Just as was the case in June, stocks in the securities industry were much in demand over the first six months due to the increased activity on capital markets worldwide. Stocks such as Kempen & Co (up 58 percent), Van der Hoop Effectenbank (+46 percent), AOT (+43 percent) and Van der Moolen Holding (34 percent) saw their prices jump by several guilders at a time.
High techs were the biggest gainers. Topping the list were names such as CMG (up 111 percent), Ordina Beheer (+101 percent), Getronics (up 95 percent), Axxicon Groep (+83 percent), Cap Volmac (+73 percent), Simac (+70 percent), LCI (+64 percent) and Baan Company (+58 percent).
Partly as a result of the upturn in economic growth, retailers and companies in the construction sector were also able to book major gains. In the retail sector, recently the focus of major restructuring, stocks such as Goudsmit (+40 percent), KBB (+35 percent) and Hagemeyer (43 percent) were outperformers. Among the construction companies Heijmans (+67 percent) and Volker Stevin (+35 percent) claimed most of the limelight.
BONDS
Bond yields rose over the first half. Yields on the latest ten-year bond issue rose from just under six percent to 6.41 percent. Turnover in state bonds amounted to 96.5 billion guilders in June, while non-government bond issues accounted for 9.2 billion guilders. The figures for the last six months came to 629.5 billion guilders in state bonds versus 64 billion guilders in non-government bonds.
INTRODUCTIONS AND ISSUES IN JUNE
June was characterised by the introduction of a large number of new issues. It was kicked off on June 13 with the launch of Letterhaave NV, a holding company for shares in paper maker KNP BT. At an issue price of 42.30 guilders (valuing the total issue at 380.7 million guilders) the stock attracted a large number of private investors in particular. Consequently 80 percent of the shares are now in private hands. On June 17 Postbank brought its Netherlands fund to market at an issue price of 50 guilders. The issue raised 250 million guilders. Investment fund W.P. Stewart Holdings also floated on the stock exchange in June. The Curacao-based fund has averaged returns of 19.2 percent since 1989. The fund invests in large non-cyclical growth stocks. Also in June, Ducatus set a fresh issue, the National Investment Bank introduced preference shares totalling 174.4 million guilders and Security Capital U.S. Realty was introduced via ASAS.
June was also a good month for bonds, resulting in eight new bond issues. Aside from the 5.5 percent convertible bond issue by Econosto these comprised regular bonds from among others, ABN AMRO, Nederlandse Gasunie, the Swedish state, Unilever and Commerzbank.
ISSUE VOLUME IN THE FIRST HALF
The volume of new share issues rose in the first half from 12.4 billion guilders (up to and including June 1995) to 12.7 billion guilders at end-June 1996. The volume of bond issues fell to 48.2 billion guilders in 1996 from 51.3 billion guilders in the year-earlier half. Eye-catching issues were those of Toolex Alpha and Van Leer Packaging, both in May.
THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT
In terms of share price trends the Amsterdam Exchanges NV turned in an above-average performance. Wall Street's Dow Jones index advanced 11 percent. London's FTSE-100 struggled one percent higher, while Germany's DAX-30 advanced 13.5 percent -- as did the Paris CAC-40.
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