P2N0 - Edition 19 - News And Views On The Drive Towards Net-Zero GHG Emissions

Welcome to the Edition 19 of P₂N₀ covering the drive to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net-zero (NZE). P₂N₀ identifies significant news items globally, reporting on them in short form, focusing on policy settings and project developments. This Edition 19 covers news arising during the period October 17 to October 31, 2024.

P₂N₀ does not cover news items about climate change generally, M&A activity, or news items that are negative.

Edition 20 of P₂N₀, covering the first two weeks of November 2024, will be published on or around November 18, 2024, and Edition 21, covering COP-29, will be published before the end of November 2024. During December, Edition 22 will be published providing a look-back over 2024.

Access previous editions of P₂N₀ by clicking here.

HEADLINES FROM OCTOBER 17 TO 31, 2024

As foreshadowed in Editions 17 and 18 of P₂N₀, COP-16 took place in Cali, Columbia, between October 21, 2024, and November 1, 2024. COP-16 is the Sixteenth meeting of the Conference of Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Ahead of COP-16, the European Parliament commissioned a study entitled the Issues at stake at the COP-16 Convention on Biological Diversity. COP-16 is the first COP under the Convention on Biological Diversity since the adoption of the Kunming-Montreal Global Diversity Framework (GBF).

In short, the GBF established four goals and 23 action-orientated targets. The commitments to preserving 30% of the world's land mass and oceans and to halt loss of biodiversity being totemic.

Without wishing to over-simplify, the major issues were:

1. National Implementation of the GBF targets: all Parties to the Convention were obliged to develop or revise their National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) and adopt national targets aligned with the GBF targets ahead of COP-16;
2. Implementation mechanisms, including a comprehensive framework to measure progress, and mechanisms for planning, monitoring, reporting and review of progress in implementing the goals and targets of the GBF; and
3. Multilateral agreement for the fair and equitable sharing of benefits from the use of Digital Sequence Information (DSI) on generic resources, critically whether they should be Access and Benefit-sharing (ABS) obligations.

Suffice it to say that limited progress on the first two of the major issues, with progress on the third major issue with the establishment of the Cali Fund to share the benefits from DSI. This is not to say that this was the only progress, and the good folk at esa.org, under COP16 Dispatch: Week 2 On the Path to Peace with Nature: Wins and Challenges from COP16 Outcomes provides a helpful summary.

Next COP stops:

• COP-29 being the Twenty-ninth meeting of the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, between November 11 and 22, 2024; and 
• (the other) COP-16 being the Sixteenth meeting of the Conference of Parties to the Convention to Combat Desertification to take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between December 2 and December 13, 2024.

Continuing the theme recognized in Editions 17 and 18 of P₂N₀, ahead of COP-29 a good number of publications and reports dropped during the second half of October 2024:

• The International Energy Corporation (IEA) published its:
  • Energy Technology Perspectives 2024. The publication is a first for the IEA. The publication assesses the possible implications of the energy transition (and the accompanying energy transition technologies) on economies and trade, and policy settings. The publication is well-worth a read.
  • Global Energy and Climate Model. The model has been developed by the IEA as its Global and Energy Climate Change Model, covering the energy sector across 27 regions, together aggregated into whole of globe results. The report is data and information rich and is a report with which is well-worth getting to grips.
  • Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 (SAEO). The report is the sixth SAEO, very much building on the previous five reports. The report covers each of the ASEAN nations. As the report, ASEAN is the region on which IEA has reported most frequently.
    
    The SAEO ties back to each of the scenarios in the World Energy Outlook published on October 16, 2024¹ . The report provides a helpful executive summary. The report notes key drivers to increased energy demand, including increasing urbanization, electrification, and passenger vehicles (with ASEAN being second only to India in modelled increase in energy demand (expressed in percentage terms). The report is well-worth a read for those working across the region.
• The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) continued to publish ahead of COP-29:
  • Green hydrogen auctions – A guide to design. The publication outlines the policy basis for green hydrogen auctions and design elements of auctions, and case studies of Denmark, the European Union, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The publication is helpful and timely.
  • A Just and Inclusive Transition in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Energy Planning, Financing, Sustainable Fuels and Social Dimensions. The publication outlines the benefits of and the challenges with progress to a just and inclusive transition in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs). The publication is a great addition to the commonwealth of information, critically, focusing on the means to progress to a just and inclusive transition. 
    
    This should be read with Clean Energy Innovation Policies in Emerging and Developing Economies published in early October 2024. The publication is well-worth a read, among other things, providing 11 case studies (which are specific to the country to which they relate), on domestic national policy development and implementation in economies that continue to develop, being, Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. The publication outlines seven shared findings².

To view the full article, click here.

Footnotes

1. Edition 18 of P₂N₀ reported on the World Energy Outlook 2024 as follows: “On October 16, 2024, the IEA published its flagship publication, World Energy Outlook 2024 (WEO 2024). Continuing the publication of publications and reports ahead of COP-29, WEO 2024 is alongside BloombergNEF flagship publication, Energy Transition Fact Book and IRENA's Delivering on the UAE Consensus Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 (see below) as the bulge bracket publications that have dropped since the end of September 2024. Given the release date of WEO 2024, and publication date of this Edition 18, what follows is very high level, but reflects the key high-level takeaways.
WEO 2024 continues the ongoing analysis of its three scenarios, Announced Policy Settings (APS), Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). Click through to the previous WEOs, 2021, 2022 and 2023. Given the current dynamics of the energy market, each of APS, STEPS and NZE are view through the dynamics of those dynamics, including AI, efficiency of energy use and the development of renewable electrical energy capacity, the impacts of heatwaves and the impact of the increasing use of LNG. This is a helpful development. In addition, WEO 2024 takes in themes outlined below, and what may be regarded as orthodoxy (and reflected in agreed outcomes from COP-28), the tripling of the renewable electrical energy capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030, and the doubling of energy efficiency. Again, this is helpful.

2. 1. Clean energy innovation has risen to high up the policy agenda; 2. Innovation policy can build upon and reinforce broader trends to catalyze technological change; 3. There are multiple ways to set innovation in motion; 4. Institutional history exerts powerful influence on policy choices; 5. Existing technical expertise can provide a springboard; 6. There are demonstrated ways to make the most of limited resources; and 7. Few countries have well-established and comparable processes for evaluations outcomes against the original policy goals. 

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