Overview
Until recently the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States has been slow to gain the same traction as that in other markets around the globe, particularly in Europe and China. That picture has changed dramatically in 2020 and 2021, however, and 2022 promises to drive an even greater acceleration of EV adoption in the United States.
Range anxiety — the fear of running out of battery power, with no available method of recharging in the vicinity — has been one of the leading factors causing consumers to remain hesitant about adopting this new powertrain technology en masse. The lack of charging infrastructure to support EVs in many U.S. markets, especially compared to well-established distribution channels for internal combustion engines (ICEs), has also fueled this anxiety. Although these consumer concerns persist, rapid changes in recent months appear to signal an environment for the accelerated adoption of EV technology in the U.S. These include rapid advancements in battery technologies, recent funding, and regulatory policy announcements by federal and state governments, as well as aggressive investor and industry-led efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
One of the most transformational events of the past year on this front was the signing into law of the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) in November 2021. Many in the federal government and automotive industry hope this new law, and its supporting legislative and regulatory agenda, will accelerate the United States' adoption of EVs by building the infrastructure necessary to support these powertrains and by encouraging consumer adoption. Although the IIJA did not include an increase in, or a modification of, consumer tax credits for the purchase of EVs, as many proponents hoped would happen (and similar provisions appear in the Build Back Better Act, which is currently stalled), it did include nearly $7.5 billion for the investment in and building out of alternative fuel-charging systems. These funding sources would primarily support EV chargers and infrastructure across the country. This monumental commitment to spending — anticipated to be administered largely through the states — is projected to accelerate investment into EV infrastructure around the nation. Nevertheless, there remain questions of whether the IIJA goes far enough to spur meaningful growth and actually achieves the Biden Administration's goal of deploying EV chargers along the nation's highway corridors to facilitate long-distance travel. While the federal government's commitment has been demonstrated through passage of the IIJA, what still lies ahead is the complex task of effective implementation.
The traditional consumer is used to filling up his or her fuel tank and getting anywhere from 300 to 400-plus miles per tankful (with each filling requiring no more than 10 minutes to complete), so perceived challenges in the EV charging process have been a large roadblock to widespread adoption of EVs in the United States. In an effort to overcome range anxiety, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) have been launching platforms with larger batteries, faster charging capabilities, and more abundant charging networks, but even this will require additional support as the charging network expands, including more robust utility networks, maintenance and support networks, renewable energy resources, standardized charging platforms, and the simple need for more chargers as more EVs enter the market.
As the country looks to its newest chapter in mobility, it is not only consumers who stand to benefit from the rollout of EV charging networks and improved infrastructure. The commercial players in both last-mile/last-kilometer delivery, as well as the logistics and fleet operators, are looking to electrify their platforms. Meanwhile, manufacturers and suppliers will see downstream benefits as their investments in new powertrain systems are realized through further market adoption and investment interest next-generation technologies grow in both private and public market sources.
The prospect of a growing EV market share in the U.S. has not been lost on dealmakers. While the 2020 transaction landscape was briefly interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, deal activity in the automotive and mobility sectors continues to accelerate and is approaching all-time highs. While increasing interest rates and inflation may temper activity in the short term, increased interest in EV technology platforms is expected to continue to drive the automotive M&A market and investment activities in OEMs, suppliers, and technology companies that support this burgeoning industry sector.
M&A Market Outlook 2022: Automotive Investments Roll Ahead Despite Roadblocks
A complicated market landscape has now been the auto industry's norm for nearly two years. Since the beginning of 2020, manufacturers have been hampered by plant shutdowns, social distancing regulations, skyrocketing commodities prices, supply chain delays, and shortages of everything from microprocessors to employees. Adding to the situation are unpredictable changes in consumer demand, inflation worries, and difficult-to-comprehend valuations such as Tesla's eye-popping trillion-dollar market capitalization.1 Exacerbating the confusion, the industry finds itself in the midst of a sea change caused by a rapid transition to increasingly connected, autonomous, and electrified vehicles. In short, there is a lot going on for market participants to track.
In spite of this, deal activity generally, and in the automotive and mobility sectors specifically, has accelerated at a blistering pace. At the end of Q3 2021, deal activity by volume in the mobility space had already exceeded the 2009 full-year record by more than $50 billion. As 2021 drew to a close, global M&A volumes pushed toward an unprecedented record of $4.33 trillion, overtaking an all-time annual peak of $4.1 trillion recorded before the financial crisis hit in 2007.23
In the automotive space, global mergers and acquisitions hit historical highs in 2021, with a total deal value of $136.6 billion — up 111% from 2020. While the onset of the pandemic significantly impacted deal value and volume in 2020, M&A activity recovered in the second half of the year and accelerated with deal volume in 2021 up 19%, to 971 deals, with an average disclosed deal size of approximately $435 million. Of the $136.6 billion of deal value, vehicle manufacturers comprised the largest segment, with $61.3 billion (or 45%).
This unprecedented deal volume, including in the EV sector, has been driven by the rejuvenation of Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) and de-SPAC transactions, which have allowed privately-held EV companies to reach the public capital market faster than have traditional IPOs. Although public market receptivity to these investments over the past 18 months demonstrates that investors are looking eagerly toward the future of EV technology, with an eye on environmental stewardship, poor performance of some issuers, and increased regulatory scrutiny from the SEC there remain future headwinds for de-SPAC transactions in this space.4
These public market capital increases have been accompanied by significant industry and public-private-partnership investments. In the fall of 2021, GM and LG Electronics filed applications in Lansing, Michigan to build a reported $2.5 - $3 billion battery plant. Toyota announced plans to open a massive lithium battery plant in Liberty, North Carolina, and Ford Motor Company similarly announced plans to invest over $11 billion in battery plants and electric truck plants across Kentucky and Tennessee.5
Other Trends
With so much activity and disruption, the outlook for 2022 is a bit difficult to pin down. Numerous challenges and opportunities confront the industry, including changes in distribution and franchising, right to repair laws, safety and data protection, charging standards, and even tax incentives, to name a few. Nevertheless, amidst so much change a few trends appear to be emerging:
1. Expect a move toward public markets regulatory equalization.
2021 saw unprecedented utilization of SPACs in the automotive space due to their high-speed fundraising capabilities and ability to react to market trends. This velocity has drawn increased regulatory scrutiny, particularly around disclosures of conflicts of interest and dilution, but do not expect SPACs to become a relic of the past. In early December, SEC Chair Gary Gensler pitched new rules around marketing practices, tougher disclosure requirements, and liability obligations, which suggest that SPAC investors of the future will face regulation in parity with traditional IPOs.6 Should these rules come to pass, expect SPACs to revise their marketing strategies to focus more on evidence-based target selection, suffer longer lock-up periods, experience requirements for sponsors and/or investors, and define contractual terms that better protect dilution of shareholder ownership after the acquisition.
2. Supply chain competence may determine success.
With strong demand, continued COVID-19 issues, and inflation concerns, those market participants who can best manage their inherently unstable supply chains will be more likely to come out ahead. The EV supply chain is markedly different than the traditional ICE supply chain in a number of ways.
First, EVs involve mechanically simpler components, but those components generally incorporate more technology, which creates additional challenges and needs. Intellectual property protection and use — including the freedom to operate — become paramount as more technology is developed and utilized in vehicles. Warranties, like those concerning fitness and design, also are subject to specific tailoring, including due to the complex integration of components and systems that is required for EV production.
Next, the supply base for many technologies and components has remained limited both in the size and scope of the base and in the availability of certain materials and capacities. There also is increasing competition from other industries, such as consumer electronics and appliances, for these resources. These shortages and limitations are expected to continue through the upcoming year. Strategies should be considered to proactively address these issues, such as establishing or reevaluating long-term agreements. Addressing anticipated shortages and rising costs in connection with purchase and sales requirements and obligations is necessary. These issues may no longer be viewed as unforeseeable, and allocating the risk and adverse material changes through contracting should be addressed, along with events that may no longer be viewed as falling under "force majeure" or commercial impracticality provisions. Multiple and geographically diverse sources, reserved capacity, increased inventories, and material on hand as well as contingency planning must also be addressed. Finally, transparency and data sharing are topics of increasing interest.
Despite gloomy predictions by some industry players, distressed M&A did not play a significant role in deal volume in 2020 or 2021. However, empty car lots (or those filled with chip-shorted vehicles) across the country — driven by supply chain issues and coupled with huge, pent-up demand — suggest that those able to move product and do so consistently are far more likely to be in a healthier position when markets inevitably slow, giving rise to more troubled supplier situations. If the automotive sector starts to see an increase in distressed M&A, expect the stable, well-supplied, and well-capitalized market participants to look for the opportunistic investments needed to survive and thrive in the coming years. While 2022 and the ensuring years may see an uptick in distressed M&A as volatile input costs and interest rates rise, current estimates are not showing a return to the distressed marketplace of 2008-2009 due to relatively stronger balance sheets and smarter approaches to risk allocation, and matching production to demand.
3. Note environmental considerations for zero-emission vehicles.
Both the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) have accelerated their focus on hybrid and zero-emission vehicles (including electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) to achieve emission reductions from cars, trucks, and (in California) off-road equipment.
On December 20, 2021, the EPA finalized its new greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards for new passenger cars and light trucks. These new rules are the most ambitious in history, requiring automakers to meet the strictest fuel efficiency standards ever proposed and to do so by model year 2026. While the rule does not specifically require manufacturers to produce zero-emission vehicles, practically speaking these aggressive new standards will likely require automakers to shift production to hybrid and/or zero-emission vehicles within the next four years to achieve compliance with the standards. Such a shift will further increase demand for batteries and other EV powertrain components. To be successful, it will also likely require investments in electric chargers and the transmission upgrades that will be required to maintain grid stability, and/or investments in hydrogen vehicles and fueling stations, as discussed above.7
Similarly in 2020, California also issued the Advanced Clean Trucks Rule requiring that, beginning in 2024, a certain percentage of each truck manufacturer's sales into California must be from zero-emission vehicles, with a target that by 2045 all new trucks sold in California must be zero-emission.8 In 2020 Governor Newsom also issued Executive Order N-79-20, which established a goal that, where feasible, all new passenger cars and trucks, as well as all drayage/cargo trucks and off-road vehicles and equipment sold in California, will be zero-emission by 2035. The order set a similar goal requiring that all medium- and heavy-duty vehicles will be zero-emission by 2045 where feasible.9 Also in 2021, CARB issued its proposed Advanced Clean Fleets Rule for medium- and heavy-duty zero-emission fleets, with the goal of achieving a zero-emission truck-and-bus California fleet by 2045 where feasible. These goals will be implemented by CARB through various regulations that the agency has issued in some instances and currently is developing in others, and will again increase the demand for zero-emission vehicle components and require investments in electric chargers and transmission upgrades.10 The following states have also adopted rules modeled after California's Advanced Clean Trucks Rule: Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts — and other states are also expected to adopt similar rules in the near term.
It is also worth noting for new entrants to the zero-emission vehicle market that both EPA and CARB have certification requirements for zero-emission vehicles that must be met prior to production of the vehicles for sale in the U.S. and/or California. The specific requirements for certification depend on the type of vehicle (light-, medium-, heavy-duty etc.), and California has developed specific certification procedures for zero-emission powertrains. In addition, both agencies have specific labeling requirements and importation requirements for zero-emission vehicles, depending on the type of vehicle and use of the vehicle.
4. Understand NHTSA regulations for commercial EV applications.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which regulates motor vehicle safety, is planning to amend the federal motor vehicle safety standard (FMVSS) that applies to high-voltage batteries to include heavy- and medium-duty vehicles. FMVSS 305, Electric-powered vehicles: electrolyte spillage and electrical shock protection, currently applies to passenger cars and to multipurpose passenger vehicles, trucks, and buses with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 4,536 kg or less (excluding low-speed vehicles). 49 CFR 571.305 S3. The U.S. Department of Transportation's Fall 2021 Unified Regulatory Agenda includes a proposal by NHTSA to amend FMVSS 305 to include medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.
As the commercial vehicle market expands use of EVs and other vehicles' high-voltage propulsion equipment, industry participants should monitor the Federal Register for this potential rulemaking. Because heavy- and medium-duty EVs are not currently subject to the performance requirements in FMVSS 305, EV development work should track any proposed requirements. Note that any potential amendments would likely take effect more than a year after publication of the notice of proposed rulemaking.
Another important issue that EV manufacturers are beginning to face is that of the certification requirements for vehicles manufactured in more than one stage and for vehicle alterers. NHTSA has specific requirements related to the manufacturing stage, where the vehicle identification number (VIN) must be assigned and for which manufacturers must certify conformance to relevant FMVSS for each stage of manufacturing. Some of the certification responsibilities depend on the entity that installs the powertrain or swaps out an ICE powertrain for an electric powertrain.
Manufacturers developing vehicles that will involve purchasing the chassis, removing existing powertrains, altering complete/fully certified vehicles, and similar projects should understand these regulatory obligations and how they may impact the vehicles' path to market; these regulations can influence vehicle development strategies. Understanding these requirements early in the development process will help manufacturers avoid potential complications and added costs that could delay projects or make it difficult to sell vehicles in a particular state.
5. Deployment of EV-charging infrastructure is poised to expand significantly.
In spite of the recent uncertainty over whether the Build Back Better Act will become law in any form resembling that passed by the House in Fall 2021, EV-charging infrastructure may still be on the cusp of a dramatic inflection point.
Beginning with the Biden Administration's August 2021 Executive Order on Strengthening American Leadership in Clean Cars and Trucks, continuing with the IIJA passed in November 2021, and culminating with the EPA's new emissions rules published at the end of December 2021, the federal government has implemented an assortment of carrots and sticks meant to stimulate adoption of EVs and the charging infrastructure necessary for widespread public adoption. In addition, public and private industry groups have begun to collaborate to expand the needed infrastructure.
The Executive Order kicked off the EPA rulemaking process concerning new emissions standards for cars and light-duty trucks. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, as noted above, includes $7.5 billion allocated to invest in a national network of EV-charging infrastructure. How that will be deployed at the state and local levels is not yet finalized. Also as noted above, the EPA GHG rules' cumulative effects are expected to lead to significant increases in EV car adoption, in turn requiring an increase in the EV infrastructure to support them.
In addition to federal government action, a national network of energy utilities organized through the Edison Electric Institute's National Electric Highway Coalition (NEHC) has declared its intention to begin immediately to expand EV-charging infrastructure. According to the NEHC fact sheet, the NEHC has 53 member utilities with service territories spanning the country and covering most major U.S. travel corridors.
The NEHC utilities have agreed to work to establish foundational EV fast-charging networks across their service territories. NEHC also cites the major uptick in EV sales that are anticipated through 2030, estimating that nearly 22 million EVs will be in use by 2030, which will require upwards of 100,000 DC fast-charging stations (representing more than 10 times the number of currently available fast-charging stations).
All of these developments together signal immense investments in EV infrastructure to come, and capital is already organizing in order to take advantage of these opportunities. EV infrastructure will come in the form of vehicle-charging equipment installed in "stations" at homes, businesses, and standalone service stations (including potentially integrating with conventional gas stations). Additional expansion and rehabilitation of the electric grid infrastructure necessary to sustain the increased electricity demand from all of these EVs will also be a critical precondition to facilitating the necessary growth in EV infrastructure. This grid infrastructure includes generation, transmission, and smart-grid technologies as grid operators require greater control over the increased load on the system.
Conclusion: There is No Turning Back
Regardless of whether automotive manufacturers and suppliers find themselves in a healthy or challenged position for 2022, an industry consensus has emerged that we are on an irrevocable path to electrification. Climate-neutral mobility and corporate social responsibility are increasingly important priorities for investors and consumers and, as a result, the companies in which they invest and from which they buy vehicles. Batteries and other high-tech electronic components are now more critical infrastructure than engine assembly for many mobility companies, and their increasing adoption has the potential to drive extreme disruption as manufacturers remake their supplier chains to address these new opportunities. With 145 million units of new EV sales expected in the next eight years, all industry players must properly adapt, innovate, and rapidly address even more changes on the horizon.
Footnotes
1. https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-51634854997
3. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/industrial-products/library/automotive-deals-insights.html
9. https://www.foley.com/en/insights/publications/2020/10/california-zero-emission-vehicles
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