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Trade sentiment remains cautious as markets digest shifting tariff dynamics, uneven demand signals, and continued supply–demand imbalances across transportation modes. Ocean and air markets saw brief seasonal support that faded quickly, while domestic freight conditions continue to normalize amid inventory drawdowns and network realignment.
Key themes highlighted in this month's update include:
- New AlixPartners article: Big changes to small parcel accessorial fees | AlixPartners
Transportation and warehousing:
- Ocean spot rates experienced a short-lived early-December lift but remain volatile, with persistent overcapacity and fleet growth continuing to cap sustained pricing power
- Air freight rates rose seasonally into early December before easing again, reinforcing that recent strength was peak-driven rather than structural
- Trucking saw a brief post-holiday spot rate uptick, but lower contract rates, rising costs, and only modest capacity exits continue to pressure carrier margins
- Rail volumes softened amid weaker freight demand and competitive pressure from low trucking and intermodal rates
- Parcel networks remain in flux as Amazon's growing share reshapes market dynamics, while legacy carriers and USPS focus on pricing actions, cost control, and network optimization
- Warehousing conditions are easing, with inventory drawdowns driving a historic drop in utilization, increased available capacity, and slower price growth
Tariffs and trade policy:
- China's overall exports rose in November, but shipments to the U.S. declined sharply, indicating continued tariff drag despite truce efforts
- Southeast Asia emerged as a key beneficiary of trade realignment, with ASEAN exports to the U.S. rising sharply, led by Vietnam and Thailand
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