Global
China's build-up of military capabilities alerts the US to risks of conflict in space
The US Space Force warned that China is putting military capabilities into space at a "mind-boggling" pace, significantly increasing the risk of warfare in orbit.
Our Take: US Space General Saltzman is on a tour of Europe to raise awareness with allies on the build-up of military capabilities by China and Russia and the risks of future conflict. Space is a growing domain for geopolitical competition. In 2015, the Chinese created the Strategic Support Force with the People's Liberation Army, combining space, information and cyber warfare operations. The US established the space Force in 2019. Industry as well has a role in shaping competition. International governance of space is weak, with few international rules or guidelines. While the US has been successful in advancing the Artemis Accords to advance a set of norms of behavior in space, they are still far from being universally embraced.
Read More: Financial Times [paywall], Council on Geostrategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Europe
Jamming and Spoofing of satellite navigation system in Baltic Sea, posing risks to navigation
Finland's Coast Guard is reporting constant disturbances to satellite navigation signals in the Baltic Sea since April, and tankers spoofing their location data to cover up visits to Russia.
Our Take: Jamming of GPS is becoming a serious security risk in the waters and airways not just impacting Finland, but Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, Poland and Germany. The interference presents risks to commercial airline pilots and crews of maritime shipping vessels who rely on GPS positioning data for the safety of their passengers, cargos and vessels.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], Air & Space Forces Magazine
Middle East
Iran belatedly promises to retaliate for Israeli attack
Iran announced its intention to retaliate for last weekend's Israeli attack on military targets, promising an "unimaginable response" after initially downplaying the attack and giving no indication that Tehran would attempt to retaliate.
Our Take: Israel had carefully attempted to calibrate the attack (its largest-ever against Iran) to impose costs without kicking off another escalatory round of violence, even scaling down earlier plans that included attacks on Iran's oil or nuclear infrastructure. After Iran's initial statement made no mention of retaliation, analysts breathed a sigh of relief, but Tehran's new announcement signals that escalating tit-for-tat attacks between the two countries have not ended. US and Israeli officials believe that Tehran is considering a significant attack (although its targets, and whether it will come from proxies or Iran itself, is not decided), and Israel has warned that they are willing to mount a far more aggressive attack in return.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], The Economist [paywall], Axios
Asia-Pacific
US engages with China on North Korean troops in Russia-Ukraine war
The United States and China are engaging in high-level dialogue regarding North Korea sending troops to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
Our Take: North Korea's deployment of troops to support Russian operations in Ukraine complicates China's position in the region, as it risks straining its delicate balancing act between Russia, North Korea, and its own regional and global interests. The US has leveraged this development to prompt China into reassessing its stance on growing cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, emphasizing that this alliance could increase instability in East Asia. China's cautious response suggests discomfort with Pyongyang's actions, particularly as such moves could draw European nations more directly into Asia-Pacific security dynamics – a scenario Beijing would prefer to avoid.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], South China Morning Post [paywall]
Trade & Compliance
EU investments in China reach new quarterly record
Despite European Union leaders' calls to "de-risk" their countries' economic ties with China, EU businesses' greenfield investments in the Asian giant surged to a record $3.9 billion in the second quarter of 2024, driven by German automakers.
Our Take: The surge in EU greenfield investments in China underscores a growing dependency that contrasts sharply with Brussels' de-risking objectives. By localizing production to shield operations from geopolitical uncertainties, firms, particularly in the automobile sector, deepen their ties with the Chinese market, amplifying concerns over EU economic policy coherence. This trend, largely led by Germany, reveals a significant policy divergence within the EU and raises questions about the bloc's ability to balance economic interests with strategic autonomy.
Read More: South China Morning Post [paywall], Rhodium Group
Disruptive Technology
Campaigns prepare for most challenging cybersecurity threats yet
Axios reports that political campaigns are facing rising threats from state-sponsored actors, cybercriminals, and politically motivated hackers ahead of the 2024 elections.
Our Take: As the US approaches Election Day, political campaigns are facing an unprecedented blend of cybersecurity threats, reflecting the intense stakes of this election cycle. Rising disinformation, attempts to breach campaign networks, and targeted attacks on campaign technology vendors mark a volatile digital landscape. The director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has stated that the electoral system is more secure than ever, but continued risks signal the need for rapid adaptation and resilience within campaign cybersecurity measures, as well as enhanced support from tech providers who aim to mitigate disruptions.
Read More: Axios, Bloomberg [paywall], Council on Foreign Relations
Energy Transition
Baku seeks to launch green investment rule book at COP29
COP29 host Azerbaijan plans to launch a set of standards agreed by more than 100 countries to guide sustainable investment at the climate conference, which starts November 11.
Our Take: The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) has been working with the International Platform on Sustainable Finance and the Sustainable Banking & Finance Network to create the global taxonomy. There are upwards of 50 different taxonomies currently, with the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy providing an important framing document. The EU's taxonomy includes nuclear power as a transitional activity under specific conditions, which was controversial during drafting and is likely to be a subject of debate during the UN-sponsored discussions.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], Columbia University
ESG
Nation watches Washington's cap-and-trade repeal vote
Washingtonians vote tomorrow on whether to repeal the state's carbon market, which went into force just under two years ago. Opponents have argued that the market, which is one of just two in the country, has contributed to high gas and electricity prices, while proponents say it has lowered emissions and raised funds for public projects.
Our Take: The vote is seen as a harbinger for the feasibility of carbon market systems across the nation, as Washington is just the second state to implement the cap-and-trade system, and the first to face a repeal effort. Proponents say that repealing the measure could deter other states from pursuing carbon markets, potentially opting for blunter instruments to curb emissions. Polls have indicated that voters are likely to retain the cap-and-trade system, which has raised over $2 billion for programs including transit, wildfire protection, and salmon conservation since its 2023 launch.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], New York Times [paywall], Wall Street Journal [paywall]
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