Serge Dupont appears on a special edition of CBC's The House examining whether Canada can meet its 2030 climate target of reducing emissions 40–45 percent below 2005 levels.
"There are a lot of things in this world that are uncertain at this time," Serge says, "but I think it is a safe prediction that we will not meet that target."
He cites several reasons: geopolitical headwinds, a lack of firm political will reflecting limits to the public's willingness to support the effort and the fact that the target was overly ambitious from the outset.
Serge stresses that it is still important for Canada to go as far as possible in reducing emissions. He also discusses why net zero is being mentioned less often and how targets can be "too aspirational" when they are no longer credible or believable.
He notes that:
- Canada is responsible for 1.4 percent of global emissions
- While we have a part to play, Canada can only control what is within its power and there are technological, economic and political limits to the steps we can take toward abatement
- If Canada were to limit oil and LNG production and other countries filled the market gap, global emissions might be unchanged or even higher, while Canada's economic growth would be reduced
- There is no substitute for a collective global response to climate change
Canada would need to set a more credible target in a tighter timeframe to hit emissions reductions, Serge says. Ultimately, you need the political will and public support to get that effort done.
Serge's interview on The House runs from 22:12 to 30:58 and is available here.