On 2 April 2025, in what the U.S. President Donald Trump described as "America's Liberation Day", he imposed a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imports into the U.S. market, which was set to take effect 3 days later. Through an executive order, the U.S. government released a list of countries and the respective duties and tariffs that will apply inAnnex I. In terms of applicability, the 10% duty was in addition to any other existing duties imposed on goods imported to the U.S. market. These duties were not, however, applied to goods listed inAnnex II.
A week later, on 9 April 2025, Trump announced a 90-day "pause" on the implementation of the increased tariffs. During this window, which runs from 10 April 2025 to 9 July 2025, all countries subjected to reciprocal tariffs would have their rates lowered to the universal 10% tariff rate.
For Kenya, this move was significant. Key exports, such as textiles, tea and coffee, which previously enjoyed quota-free duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), would not be subject to a 10% tariff rate.
With the 90-day reprieve ending on 9 July 2025, questions abound. Will the original tariff regime be reinstated? What is Kenya's strategy moving forward?
Evolving Nature of the Kenya-US Trade
Negotiations
Kenya has had a long dalliance with the U.S. on trade matters. In
July 2020, under President Donald Trump's first term, Kenya and
the U.S. launched formal trade talks to negotiate for a Free Trade
Area (FTA). The FTA was to cover 22-24 negotiations chapters,
including agriculture, digital trade, IP, labour and good
governance. Kenya's goal was to eliminate Kenyan trade barriers
with the U.S. while safeguarding U.S. competitiveness. Other
African countries, especially members of the East African
community, were not convinced of the need for Kenya to enter into a
trade agreement with the U.S.
However, with President Biden's inauguration in 2021, the momentum stalled. By mid-2022, the Biden administration shifted the framework to a lighter-touch agreement, referred to as a Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP), moving away from a pure FTA. Since then, seven rounds of negotiations have taken place in Nairobi and Washington, covering areas such as digital trade, agriculture, environmental protection, supporting participation of women, youth and others in trade, services, and labour rights. Both the Kenyan and U.S. governments invited firms to share their views on the negotiation areas that will be the basis of the proposed trade deal. As of 2025, STIP is still undergoing multiple negotiation rounds, and the agreement has not been finalised.
Moving to the present day. In a press release dated 3 April 2025, the Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of Investments, Trade and Industry (MITI), Honourable Lee Kinyanjui, responded to Pres. Trump's imposition of the 10% tariff on Kenyan exports, noting that the new trade policy presents both challenges and opportunities for Kenya. Regarding the country's textile sector, he pointed out the potential for export diversification beyond Kenya's current exports, as well as an opportunity for investment in local textile production and value addition. On the flipside, Hon. Kinyanjui acknowledged that while the 10% additional tariff is lower than its competitors' tariffs, it will still affect Kenyan businesses by raising the costs incurred in exporting goods to the U.S.
On 14 April 2025, Hon. Kinyanjui revealed that the Kenyan government is set to appeal the imposition of the 10% tariff. He added that the 90-day pause gives the country a window of opportunity to put their case forward. Hon. Kinyanjui stated that MITI has already drafted the rationale and the reasons why the country is seeking to appeal against the imposition of tariffs.
The trade agreement between Kenya and the U.S. has been directly discussed in the U.S. House of Representatives. During a hearing held on Wednesday, 9 April 2025, by the U.S. House Committee on Ways and Means, which shapes fiscal legislation including taxes and tariffs, the Committee considered the status of U.S. trade negotiations with Kenya, noting that the U.S. House recognised Kenya as a key trade partner in Africa. The U.S. Trade Representative, Amb. Jamieson Greer indicated that he had spoken with Hon. Kinyanjui and was hopeful that the trade negotiations started earlier would be completed. However, Amb. Greer indicated that the format of the agreement is likely to be different from the STIP currently under negotiation.
AGOA A-Going?
Against this turbulent backdrop, AGOA, the linchpin of Africa's
preferential access to the U.S. market, is set to expire on 30
September 2025. Since 2024, African governments have lobbied for an
extension of AGOA to ensure predictability and attract long-term
investment. The proposal floated by these African countries has
been for a 10-year or more extension. While the U.S. has issued
encouraging statements on the potential extension of AGOA, to date,
there has been no firm commitment, leaving African exporters in
uncertainty.
With time running out, Africa must proactively explore alternative trade partnerships and strategies to safeguard its export interests and economic stability, even as it remains hopeful of a last-minute extension of AGOA.
The Global Picture and Kenya's
Standing
Trump's 2 April 2025 tariff order triggered immediate global
reactions. In this period, only a few countries such as the UK,
China and India seem to have made any real in-roads in reaching
bilateral agreements with the U.S. Some countries such as South
Africa appear to have been rebuffed in their attempted negotiations
with the U.S. Other African countries such as the DRC appear to be
trying a security-for-critical minerals deal, which may-or-may not
be in place by 9 July 2025.
Meanwhile, other countries, including Kenya, await their turns.
Any hope that some respite may come from the courts has now been dashed, following the temporary reinstatement of tariffs by the US Court of Appeal on 29 May 2025.
What Next for Kenya and the World
So, what now? As it stands, Trump's tariffs remain in effect
after the U.S. Appeals Court granted a stay of the trade
court's ruling. The present state of events depicts the
volatility of the international trade landscape, and there is now a
great need to address uncertainties for businesses exporting to the
U.S. market.
At the same time, rising security tensions in the Middle East and the deepening involvement of the United States make it increasingly unlikely that Washington will prioritise the conclusion of new trade agreements, including the renewal of AGOA, in the near term.
Africa, therefore, remains in a precarious position, caught in legal limbo as the expiration of AGOA looms. There appears to be no short-term solution for Africa, and perhaps the continent will finally need to forge its future.
Conclusion
The U.S. trade court's decision to block Trump's tariffs
offered a momentary reprieve, but the stay granted by the Court of
Appeal has kept the duties in place, for now. For Kenya, this
ongoing legal uncertainty complicates not only export planning but
also the broader goal of securing a bilateral free trade agreement.
With the future of Trump's tariffs likely to be decided in a
lengthy appeals process, Kenya and other developing trade partners
must prepare for continued instability in the U.S. trade
policy.
The road ahead will require strategic diplomacy, strong legal advocacy, and policy agility to safeguard access to the U.S. market. What began as an aggressive trade move by Trump has now become a legal and geopolitical test, one that may shape the future of Kenya–U.S. trade relations, and indeed U.S. trade relations with the entire African continent for years to come. Perhaps, the long-held adage of "African solutions for African problems" may finally see the light of day, with AfCFTA and other homegrown solutions paving the way for intra-African trade amongst nations and reducing dependence on external markets.
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