Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on October 14, 2021.

Each week, we'll be updating this blog post with our predictions of the probability that leave will be granted for each application. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

We'll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch  – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders  – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen rarely, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

THIS WEEK'S CASES

There are 11 leave application decisions coming out on October 14, 2021. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 11 cases in which we'll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

Cases to Watch

Transportation Safety Board of Canada v Kathleen Carroll-Byrne, et al. (N.S.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39661)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 54% chance of getting leave.

Attorney General of Ontario, et al. v Ontario Nurses' Association, et al. (Ont.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39650)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 52% chance of getting leave.

Possible Contenders

Toronto-Dominion Bank v Her Majesty the Queen (F.C.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39238)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 17% chance of getting leave.

Procureur général du Québec, et al. c Avocats et notaires de l'État québécois, et al. (Qc) (Civile) (Autorisation) (39695)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 12% chance of getting leave.

Douglas Consultants Inc c Unigertec Inc, et al. (Qc) (Civile) (Autorisation) (39679)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 6% chance of getting leave.

Unidisc Music Inc v Agence du revenu du Québec (Que.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39657)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Seul Eche Manrique c Sa Majesté la Reine (Qc) (Criminelle) (Autorisation) (39694)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Unlikely Contenders

Corporal C.R. McGregor v Her Majesty the Queen (C.M.A.C.) (Criminal) (By Leave) (39543)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.

Gaganjot Singh Sidhu v Her Majesty the Queen (Alta.) (Criminal) (By Leave) (39720)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

Gabriella Kindylides v Attorney General of Canada and the Minister of Justice of the Province of British Columbia (B.C.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39728)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Long-Shots

Judith Angella Chin v Her Majesty the Queen (F.C.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39698)

  • Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

UPDATE ON OCTOBER 14, 2021: WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK?

This week, the Supreme Court of Canada granted leave to appeal for two out of the 11 cases it released leave decisions in. 

  • Transportation Safety Board of Canada v Kathleen Carroll-Byrne, et al. (N.S.) (Civil) (By Leave) (39661)  – This was our model's most likely contender this week. Our model predicted this case had a 54% chance of getting leave.
  • Corporal C.R. McGregor v Her Majesty the Queen (C.M.A.C.) (Criminal) (By Leave) (39543)  – Our model predicted this case had a 4% chance of getting leave.

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