Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on August 29, 2024.
Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.
Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:
- Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
- Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
- Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
- Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.
If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.
THIS WEEK'S CASES
There are 30 leave application decisions coming out on August 29, 2024. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 29 cases in which we'll give a prediction.
You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.
Cases to Watch
His Majesty the King v CL
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 27% chance of getting leave.
Strathcona Regional District v Noba Anderson
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 25% chance of getting leave.
Possible Contenders
Frank Dorsey and Ghassan Salah v Attorney General of Canada
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 16% chance of getting leave.
Métis Nation of Alberta Association v His Majesty the King in Right of Alberta as Represented by the Minister of Indigenous Relations
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 14% chance of getting leave.
Athabasca Resources Inc, CSIT Consulting Inc, and Ruby Energy Inc v Christopher Curry
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 12% chance of getting leave.
Darrell Mathison v Complaints Inquiry Committee of the Chartered Professional Accountants of Alberta
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 12% chance of getting leave.
Lexlixatkwa7 Nelson v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 8% chance of getting leave.
Unlikely Contenders
Honourable Maxime Bernier v Attorney General of Canada
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.
Honourable A Brian Peckford v Attorney General of Canada
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.
Christopher Michael Fowler v Family and Children's Services of the Waterloo Region, Alison Scott and Lynne Marie Frye
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.
David Odesho v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Alexandre Bergevin v Attorney General of Canada
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
GreenBlue Urban North America Inc v DeepRoot Green Infrastructure LLC
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Stéphanie Dorval v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Barbara Booker v His Majesty the King
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.
Long-Shots
Nabil Ben Naoum v Attorney General of Canada
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Preventous Collaborative Health v Canada
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Gabriella Lengyel v Ministry of the Attorney General, Office of the Public Guardian and Trustee
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Rustum Asaduzzaman v Yves-Antoine Audet
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Régis Beniey v Ministre de la Sécurité publique et de la Protection civile
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Régis Beniey v Ministre de la Sécurité publique et de la Protection civile
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
NN v KL
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Ehtesham A Rafique v Minister of National Revenue
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Silja Leung v Alexander Shamtanis
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Silja Leung v Interdeep S Gill
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Gérald McNichols Tétreault v Ville de Boisbriand
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Alexandre Le Bouthillier v Jacques Larochelle
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Winston E Gaskin v Rogers Communications Inc
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Mei Sun also known as Sun Mei v Wenming Cheng aka Rex Cheng and Homelife Best Choice Realty Inc
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.