Power Moves: Report On What's Driving Deals In The North American Energy M&A Market 2025

The North American energy sector stands at an inflection point. We are witnessing a confluence of forces that are unprecedented in their scope and complexity: the insatiable energy demands of an AI-powered digital revolution; the ongoing global imperative of the energy transition; and a stark recalibration of energy policy, notably within the US.

This new energy mix of the traditional and transitional makes for a challenging but undeniably opportunity rich M&A environment. Understanding the opposing currents and crosscurrents shaping this primary sector, has never been more critical for industry leaders and dealmakers seeking to chart a path forward.

Based on interviews with 100+ North American financial sponsors and corporates that have invested in renewable and/or conventional energy infrastructure M&A over the past 24 months, Power Moves explores where capital is flowing—and why.

A look at the key findings

• Overwhelming optimism for energy transition M&A: 60% of respondents anticipate an increase in M&A activity within the energy transition space over the next 24 months. This positive outlook is particularly pronounced among financial sponsors, 64% of whom foresee increased dealmaking, compared to 50% of their corporate counterparts.
• Energy storage leads as most transformative force: Underscoring the critical need for grid stability and renewable integration, 74% of all respondents expect energy storage technologies to be the most transformative force in energy infrastructure development in the near term.
• CCUS and hydrogen seen as integral to future decarbonization: There is near-universal agreement on the growing importance of both carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and clean hydrogen. The survey shows 91% of respondents believe CCUS will increasingly be part of North America's decarbonization strategy in the next 24 months, and 90% feel similarly about hydrogen adoption, highlighting their perceived necessity in achieving long-term climate goals.
• Emerging technologies are the primary M&A catalyst: The drive for innovation is paramount, with 58% identifying emerging technologies as one of the top drivers for their organization's M&A activity in the energy transition arena for the coming two years.
• Resilient perception of policy support despite headwinds: Respondents on average give a robust average rating of 8 out of 10 to the current supportiveness of North American policies for M&A in energy transition sectors. Furthermore, there is an overall expectation that this policy support will strengthen over time, with Canadian respondents expressing the most significant optimism for future improvements.
• Divergent deal structures for sponsors and corporates: A clear strategic split exists in how different investor groups approach dealmaking. Our survey indicates that financial sponsors have unanimously pursued and plan to continue pursuing minority stakes, allowing for portfolio diversification. Conversely, 100% of corporate respondents have focused on and will continue to target majority stakes, underscoring their drive for control and operational synergy.
• Data centers: A nexus of investment and intense energy demand: The AI boom is profoundly impacting the energy sector, with data centers at its core. While nearly half of all respondents have invested in data centers recently, there's a stark difference: 59% of financial sponsors have done so, versus only 10% of corporates. Crucially, an overwhelming consensus exists across all respondent types that data centers are placing substantial and increasing pressure on energy demand, and investment will naturally continue to follow.

Power Moves is a must-read for decision-makers who need insight into the forces driving energy M&A.

Download the report

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