ARTICLE
19 June 1996

Commercial Property Rent Index

HP
Hillier Parker

Contributor

Hillier Parker
United Kingdom
West End Office Rental Values Continue to Grow

There was a 1.7% change in the All Property Rent Index from the previous quarter, with increases in all three sectors. This is reflected in the annual figure of 3.8%, which is higher than the year ending November 1995 (2.8%) or February 1996 (2.5%) and more than the expected rate of inflation (2.4%).

In the retail sector, all areas achieved an increase on the last quarter. However, increases were marginal, exemplified by the fact that the largest increase in this quarter was 1.8%, compared to the previous quarter's high of 4%. Over the year, Central London, as in the previous two quarters, easily achieved the highest increase. The London, North, Scotland and Yorkshire areas were the only ones to achieve growth above 2%. Wales was the only region to experience a decrease over the year, though the change was marginal, at -0.5%.

The Office sector experienced a growth of 2.6% from February 1996. Just over one third of the office regions showed no change in rental values. Scotland was the only region for which a decrease was recorded. The West End and Holborn & Marylebone clearly showed the two largest increases over both the quarter and 12 months. In the year to May, the West End produced growth of 19.7%. Outside London, changes over the two periods were relatively marginal.

The industrial sector has shown a change of 0.8 % on the previous quarter. Nearly two thirds of the regions showed no change in this quarter. The North West was the only region to experience a lower rate of rental value growth than in the previous quarter. Over the 12 months, Wales showed the highest increase, at 5.4%. Scotland's decrease, of 2.8%, was the largest in any sector, over the 12-month period.

Amendments to Data

There have been some re-calculations resulting in modifications in to ,.historic data. The areas affected are All Property (August 1995 to February 1996), All Retail (May 1995), All Offices (August 1995 to February 1996), All Industrial (August 1995 to February 1996, Retail: South West (May 1991 to February 1996), North West (February 1992 to February 1996) and West Midlands (November 1994 to February 1996), Offices: South West (November 1991 to February 1996), West Midlands (May 1991 to February 1996) and Wales (August 1994 to February 1996), Industrial: South West (May 1991 to February 1996) , North West (May 1994 to February 1996) and West Midlands (August 1994 to February 1996). A list of these changes will be published in the near future. In the meantime, please contact the Investment Research should you require the updated figures.

Rent Index - Current Prices

                                            % Change
                                            Qtr      Annual   pa

                                            Feb 96-  May 95-  May 91-
                Nov 95   Feb 96   May 96    May 96   May 96   May 96
All Property    401      404      411       1.7      3.7      -3.6
Shops           560      564      569       1.0      2.2      -1.0
Offices         313      316      324       2.6      6.2      -5.8
Industrials     339      340      342       0.8      1.3      -2.9
Equity Dividend 653      667      690       3.4      10.4      7.4



Rent Index - Real Terms

                                            % Change
                                            Qtr      Annual   pa

                                            Feb 96-  May 95-  May 91-
                Nov 95   Feb 96   May 96    May 96   May 96   May 96
All Property    123      124      124       -0.3      1.3     -6.2
Shops           172      173      172       -1.0     -0.3     -3.7
Offices          96       97       98        0.6      3.6     -8.4
Industrials     104      104      103       -1.2     -1.1     -5.5
Equity Dividend 201      205      208        1.5      7.8      4.6



Rent Index  - Regional 


                       Nov 95    Feb 96    May 96
Shops 
All Shops              560       564       569
Central London*        536       558       566
Inner Sub London       464       473       477
Outer Sub London       497       503       511
Suburban London        484       491       498
London                 516       529       537
South East             569       571       577
South West             553       555       559
East Anglia            718       717       720
East Midlands          451       455       455
West Midlands          707       706       715
Wales                  732       733       735
North West             560       561       571
Yorks & Humbs          467       477       482
North                  566       576       579
Scotland*              520       521       526


                       % Change
                       Qtr         Qtr        Annual     pa
                       Nov 95-     Feb 96-    May 95-    May 91-
                       Feb 96      May 96     May 96     May 96
Shops 
All Shops               0.7        1.0        2.1        -1.0
Central London*         4.0        1.5        9.7         2.9
Inner Sub London        1.9        0.9        4.1        -2.4
Outer Sub London        1.2        1.6        2.7        -2.2
Suburban London         1.4        1.5        3.1        -2.3
London                  2.5        1.5        5.9        -0.2
South East              0.5        0.9        1.3        -2.2
South West              0.4        0.7        2.0        -0.3
East Anglia            -0.2        0.4        0.6        -1.0
East Midlands           0.8        0.1        1.2        -1.9
West Midlands          -0.1        1.2        1.3        -1.6
Wales                   0.2        0.2       -0.5        -0.9
North West              0.2        1.8        2.0         1.2
Yorks & Humbs           2.0        1.2        3.2        -1.7
North                   1.7        0.5        2.7         0.0
Scotland*               0.2        1.0        4.0         1.8


* 9.14m (30 ft) Zone A. All other regions 6.1m (20ft) zone A.



                          Nov 95    Feb 96    May 96
Offices
All Offices               313       316       324
West End                  399       413       440
Holb/M'bone               303       308       329
Central City              274       274       280
Fringe city               285       285       285
Central London            319       322       335
Suburban London           293       294       297
London                    306       310       320
South East                333       335       338
South West                598       596       602
East Anglia               318       316       316
East Midlands             363       363       363
West Midlands             705       705       705
Wales                     417       417       432
North West                457       458       459
Yorks & Humbs             372       372       372
North                     269       269       269
Scotland                  454       454       450



                         % Change
                        Qtr        Qtr        Annual     pa
                        Nov 95-    Feb 96-    May 95-    May 91-
                        Feb 96     May 96     May 96     May 96
Offices
All Offices             0.9        2.6         6.1        -5.8
West End                3.3        6.7        19.7        -7.6
Holb/M'bone             1.6        7.0        14.4       -10.7
Central City            0.0        2.4         2.4        -6.6
Fringe city             0.0        0.0         0.0       -10.9
Central London          1.2        4.0         8.6        -8.0
Suburban London         0.5        0.9         2.0        -4.6
London                  1.1        3.5         7.5        -7.4
South East              0.7        0.8         3.6        -4.1
South West             -0.3        1.1        -0.8        -3.3
East Anglia            -0.6        0.0        -1.2        -4.8
East Midlands           0.0        0.0         2.6        -1.2
West Midlands           0.0        0.0         1.5        -2.7
Wales                   0.0        3.6         3.6        -1.7
North West              0.2        0.2         2.5        -0.8
Yorks & Humbs           0.0        0.0         0.1        -0.0
North                   0.0        0.0         4.0        -0.0
Scotland                0.0       -0.9        -1.9        -0.3



                             Nov 95    Feb 96    May 96
Industrials
All Industrials              339       340       342
London                       369       369       369
South East                   399       400       406
South West                   396       396       396
East Anglia                  369       369       369
East Midlands                368       374       379
West Midlands                354       354       354
Wales                        295       295       295
North West                   318       318       315
Yorks & Humbs                253       254       259
North                        253       253       253
Scotland                     293       293       293


                        % Change
                        Qtr        Qtr        Annual     pa
                        Nov 95-    Feb 96-    May 95-    May 91-
                        Feb 96     May 96     May 96     May 96
Industrials
All Industrials         0.1        0.8        1.3        -2.9
London                 -0.2        0.0       -0.4        -3.9
South East              0.1        1.6        2.4        -2.0
South West              0.0        0.0        0.2        -3.8
East Anglia             0.0        0.0        0.0        -3.7
East Midlands           1.5        1.5        3.0        -4.0
West Midlands           0.0        0.0        3.7        -3.3
Wales                   0.0        0.0        5.4        -4.7
North West              0.0       -0.8       -0.8        -0.4
Yorks & Humbs           0.5        2.1        2.6        -7.2
North                   0.0        0.0        0.0        -2.2
Scotland                0.1        0.0       -2.8         3.0

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

For further information please contact Alan Patterson on 0171 629 7666 extension 2376, or write to him at Hillier Parker, 77 Grosvenor Street, London W1A 2BT.

For additional expert analysis provided by Hillier Parker, enter text search 'Hillier Parker' and 'Business Monitor'.

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