HEADLINES FROM JUNE 1 TO JUNE 30, 2025
Opening observations:
One of the reasons for changing the cadence of the publication of P2N0 was to anticipate a quieter news cycle during the Northern Hemisphere summer. So far, this reason is holding true.
During June 2025 the following matters caught the eye:
- World Economic Forum (WEF): Between June 24 to June 26, 2025, the Annual Meeting of the New Champions conference took place in Tianjin, China (coined the Summer Davos). Among other things, stewarding a just and inclusive energy transition was a key topic.
Ahead of the Summer Davos, the WEF published Forests are now contributing to climate change – what can be done? While the title may serve to make you click, there is nothing new: the issues is not that forests are bad, rather the issue is that land degradation, deforestation and unsustainable land use is contributing GHG emissions to the climate system while at the same time increasing the new for carbon removal initiatives and projects.
While the Summer Davos and SB 62 took place in different locations, they had a common theme – just energy transition.
- June Climate Meetings (SB 62): Between June 16 and June 26, 2025, as usual, negotiators from Parties to the Paris Agreement met in Bonn, Germany to progress matters ahead of COP 30 later in the year, this year Belém, Brazil.
It has been interesting to follow the Bonn Climate Meetings this year while progress continues to be made (see unfccc.int, under June UN Climate Meetings 2025 – Updates).
UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell, is reported to have stated:
"I am not going to sugar coat it - we have a lot more to do before we meet again in Belém. There is so much more work to do to keep 1.5 alive, as science demands. We must find a way to get to the hard decision sooner. We all need negotiators to sit together between sessions to find common ground".
Looking forward rather than back, work to be done before COP-30 include the following:
- The review of new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in September 2025, having been included in the NEC Synthesis Report; and
- Also in September 2025, further work to share barriers, and the means to overcome them arising from the first BTR Synthesis Report1 , and a review of the National Adaptation Plans for each country.
After this work is done in September 2025.
A key focus of SB-62 was Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. While a key focus in Bonn was Article 6, it is understood that will not be any negotiations to progress Article 6 at COP-30. Over the last two months or so, there has been considerable activity towards the operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. As readers of P2N0 may recall, the author has been anticipating the operationalization of Article 6 since well before COP-28. To capture progress on Article 6, we provide a summary of the current state of play with Article 6.
- At the London Climate Action Week: During the London Climate Action Week, on June 24, 2025, The Coalition to Grow Climate Markets was established. As established, the Coalition comprised Kenya, Singapore and the UK. France and Peru soon joined the Coalition. It is understood that the objective of the Coalition is to support the development of high-integrity carbon credits to enable the development of projects that will give rise to carbon credits.
In addition, the Coalition has noted, holistically, that:
"Carbon markets direct finance to project that can cut emissions faster and at lower cost. This helps modernise industries, cut pollution, creates employment opportunities and delivers lasting benefits for local communities and ecosystems.
But reputational and legal risks2 , concerns about integrity of supply and lack of consistent guidance have stopped companies from buying credits."
As noted previously, Singapore continues to be in vanguard of the development of an environment in which the integrity of carbon credits reaches a level consistent with the highest of standards to ensure that each carbon credits represents one metric tonne of CO2-e GHG emissions. For these purposes,
Singapore has introduced its Draft Guide for Local Companies planning to use carbon credits voluntarily for public consultation. The Draft Guide exalts companies to decarbonize their activities before using carbon credits to allow companies to net off GHG emissions against carbon credits. Also, on June 30, 2025, it was reported widely that Singapore and the Maldives had signed an agreement to provide a framework for them to work together on the environment and sustainability.
Comment: Without wishing to take issue with that which the Coalition has noted, the key issue with carbon credits created is integrity and price. There has to be a price point for carbon credits of the highest-integrity to ensure that projects and initiatives are developed that provide assurance that each carbon credits represents one metric tonne of CO2-e GHG emissions. A higher-price for the highest-integrity carbon credits will increase the rate of development of projects and initiatives. If carbon credits of the highest integrity can be used to discharge liability in a market that places a price on carbon (typically in the form a carbon tax or under an emissions trading scheme (ETS)), the projects and initiatives will increase, and the number of carbon credits will increase.
For a point of reference for price of carbon around the world in 2024, please click on the attached link from Sustainability Infographics. In this context, it is worth noting that the target price for ITMO stated by many (for the purposes of Article 6 of the PACM) is USD 40 to 80 per metric tonne of CO2-e GHG emissions, for others (including the Klik Foundation) the price is USD 20 to 30. For further reading on Article 6, the World Bank publication Country Guidance for Navigating Carbon Markets is recommended.
- World Energy Investment Report: On June 19, 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published World Energy Investment 2025. This is the 10th edition of the World Energy Investment Report. As with previous editions of the report, the 2025 report is a treasure trove of facts and stats (255 pages of them).
A key headline picked up in the reporting of the 2025 report is that "capital flows to the energy sector are set to rise in 2025 to USD 3.3t trillion ... [with] Around USD 2.2 trillion ... to renewables, nuclear, grids, storage. Low-emissions fuels, efficiency and electrification ...". The report provides a balanced assessment of renewable and non-renewable investment globally and is well-worth a read.
- Energy Asia: On June 16 to 18, 2025, the second Energy Asia conference took place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia curated and sponsored by PETRONAS. Energy Asia may be regarded as a CERA Week for energy within Asia. Energy Asia was attended by a who's who of the energy industry.
The concepts that were canvassed and the themes that emerged were similar to those that were canvassed and the themes that emerged from CERA Week (see Edition 27 of P2N0).
- Natural gas remains central to the energy transition across Asia, not just as a fuel transition on the phase down of coal to renewable electrical energy, rather natural gas will remain key to the energy mix across Asia (and elsewhere in the world) through 2050 and beyond.
- Recognising the key role of natural gas (and LNG), the need to address the GHG emissions arising in the value chain and on use was mentioned, frequently, critically, the use of CCS.
- Energy demand across Asia will continue to increase as populations and the urbanization of them increases, key to this increase is increased electrification, both to provide electrification to those without electrical energy and as part of the energy transition. In addition, AI will increase demand further, and as yet we have no sense of the impact on energy demand.
- AI is upon us, and we are not yet able to understand the scope and size: one concept that stuck with the author is that we can understand less than 1% the potential of AI.
- Electrical energy infrastructure development is required, critically to augment and to expand and to develop new grids in each grid, and to move to increased connectivity between countries across Asia.
- The most frequently mentioned concept was the need for collaboration within countries and across Asia.
For the author, the Energy Asia conference continued the expression of a greater pragmatism across the energy industry: the avoidance, reduction and removal of GHG emissions remains front and centre, and progress to net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 was still front and centre, the is a need to ensure affordable and secure supply of energy on an on-going basis, with the aim of sustainability in a way that does not comprise affordability and security.
- 51st G7 Summit: On June 16 and 17, 2025, the 51st G7 Summit was held in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada. Among other things, the leaders of G7 countries issued a number of statements, one of which is the G7 critical minerals action plan3.
The action plan provides a high-level summary of the key issues, including the role that G7 countries have to play in providing funding support: "We encourage our export credit agencies and development finance institutions (DFIs) to identify more opportunities for collaboration". This action plan builds on the earlier critical materials, metals and minerals (CM3) initiative of G74
By way of reminder: The Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. The publication provides a comprehensive assessment of the market for CM3 and rare earth elements (REE)5 , including relatively detailed outlooks for cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel, platinum metals, REEs, silicon, silver and uranium. Each outlook is worth a read.
To provide some context, the good folk at Elements have produced Visualizing the Abundance of Elements in the Earth's Crust which indicates, among other things, that bauxite (aluminium) is the most abundant element found in the earth's crust (at 8.23%), followed by iron (5.6%), calcium (4.15%), sodium (2.36%), magnesium (2.33%), potassium (2.09%) and titanium (0.565%). Other CM3 and REEs are to be found with other elements comprising 0.48% of the earth's crust.
In addition to outlooks for CM3 and REE, the publication provides a clear narrative as to the need for CM3 and REE for the purpose of the three main scenarios of the IEA.
- Bright Side of the Mine: During June 2025, the good folk at Global Energy Monitor (GEM) published Bright Side of the Mine – Solar's opportunity to reclaim coal's footprint (one of the best titles encountered). The first paragraph of the publication is equally engaging:
"Coal was once billed as the "buried sunshine" of a prehistoric past. But the world has now entered an age of solar energy – a time when harnessing the sun has become more accessible, affordable, and environmentally sustainable than diffing it up in fossil fuels. In 2024, the world installed a record breaking 599 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity, and currently has more than 2,000 GW of utility scale projects in development. But the requires widespread land use, and today's developers often struggle to secure prime locations that aren't already in use, or off limits."
As reported, GEM has undertaken a survey of open cut / surface coal mines globally that have closed over the last five years, and that are forecast to close by the end of 2030. The survey indicates that in respect of the 300 coal mines closed in the last five years there is scope to install 103 GW of photovoltaic solar capacity, and in respect of the 127 mines forecast for closure there is scope to install 185 GW. One of the headline grabbing narratives to emerge from the report is that coal mines in the Australian State of New South Wales could be used (on their abandonment) to host over 70 GW of photovoltaic solar capacity.
- Light shed on the Iberian Peninsula power outage: As will be recalled, on April 28, 2025, there was a power outage across the Iberian Peninsula. As reported by Edition 30 of P2N0, the issue was an issue of grid management following an extraordinary sequence of events.
In the medium to long term, to guard against any reoccurrence of the power outage the integrity, stability of the grid needs to be improved by the installation of battery inverters.
One of the most forward-looking comments has come from Ismael Morales, of Fundación Renewables:
"The analysis should service to accelerate the energy transition process and adapt our network infrastructure".
In the near term, it is understood that the Red Eléctrica is to seek to manage the operation of the gross pool electrical energy market to ensure that more synchronous electrical energy is generated and dispatched to ensure system integrity and stability.
- Natural Gas and LNG: During June 2025, flagship reports were published by the International Gas Union (IGU) and International Group of LNG Importers (GIIGNL). The reports provide a helpful analysis of the LNG market.
The key facts and statistics are:
- Total natural gas production was circa 4.2 trillion cubic metres in the calendar year to the end of 2024, equating to 3.044 billion metric tonnes of natural gas, giving rise to around 7.5 billion metric tonnes of CO2 emissions on combustion; and
- Total LNG production was circa 406 to 420 million metric tonnes of LNG in 2024, equating to around 1.165 billion metric tonnes of CO2 emissions on combustion.
Of the LNG exported, 69% went to Asia, 24% to Europe, 4% to the Americas and 3% to the Middle East and Africa.
It is estimated that by 2050, total production globally of natural gas will reach 5.3 trillion cubic metres annually (or 3.841 billion metric tonnes).
- GHG emissions arising along the LNG value chain: On June 20, 2025, the IEA published Assessing emissions from LNG supply and abatement options. The publication is excellent.
The key facts and statistics are:
- The IEA estimates that extraction and production, processing, refining and treatment and transport of oil and natural gas (and LNG) give rise to around 5.2 Gt CO2-e a year, 3.5 Gt CO2-e from oil, and 1.6 Gt CO2-e from natural gas (and LNG), operations (i.e., from activities within the Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions across the sectors).
- It is estimated that 350 million metric tonnes of CO2-e GHG emissions arise in the LNG supply chain (from extraction and production to the point of use). The IEA estimates that it would take USD 100 billion to reduce these GHG emission by 60%. The means of achieving this reduction are detailed in the IEA report.
It is estimated that 41.6 Gt CO2 emissions6 arose in 2024 from fossil fuel use (35.8 Gt), cement production (1.6 Gt) and land use (4.2 Gt). A further 5.2 Gt CO2-e emissions arising as Scope 1 and 2 emissions7 of the oil and natural gas (and LNG) industries.
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